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Lafate
06-05-2015, 03:40 PM
Welcome boys and girls! It is time we save us/kidnap us a Vampire girl. Remember to bring your silver bolts and cross bows... just remember not to aim them at Karma. Now this is our first collection event. If you do not know what that is. It is very simple. You run the event maps to obtain the special event item. The more of that item(in this case Vampire Serum) you obtain, the strong the event unit(in this case Karma) becomes.

OETA: 6/9/2015
ETA: 6/16/2015


And now that I've delivered the good news... the Vampire Bride will not be arriving until the 16th. This is partly due to a major required game update that is eating into Japan's development time. It sucks but there's nothing to be done for it.

However, as a result of the ongoing discussion regarding event frequency, we now have a concrete goal of daily active users we need to hit in order to get the same events as Japan. Our marketing department is going into overdrive to try to get those numbers so that we can bring up the frequency, make Japan happy, and make you guys happy.

Rewards

https://i.gyazo.com/thumb/200/_d4284f5e03b9513e1ba495ce8c59c5e0.pnghttp://i.gyazo.com/a067dbf7ad3e2ef976d4485d89cf0173.png
Yes both of these beauties are Karma. Yes she does come in different rarities. Yes it does matter how much of the event item you collect. Yes you can get the black one without spending any SC if Aigis does not hate you during the event. Yes you do have to wait until after the event to get Karma.

Requirements
250: Vampire Princess Karma joins you.
270: Karma starting level is 5
300: Karma gains -1 cost (Total: -1)
320: Karma gains 1 skill level (Total: 2/5)
340: Karma starting level is 10
370: Karma gains -1 cost (Total: -2)
400: Karma starting level is 15
450: Karma starting level is 20
500: Karma gains 1 skill level (Total: 3/5)
600: Karma gains -1 cost (Total: -3)
700: Karma changes classes from Vampire Princess(Platinum) to Immortal Princess(Black)
800: Karma gains 1 skill level (Total: 4/5)
900: Karma gains -1 cost (Total: -4)
1000: Karma gains 1 skill level (Total: 5/5)
1200: Karma gains -1 cost (Total: -5)


Blessings

Shield of the goddess: 10, Decrease physical damage taken 30%
Safety of Mystery: 10, Decrease magic damage taken 30%
Quick Formation: 10, All units cost -2
Arrow Time: 0, Increase Vampire Hunters base attack by 100%
Arrow of Light: 7, Increase Archers base attack by 50%
Silver Bullet: 7, Increase Pirates base attack by 50%
Fast healing: 5, Healers and Dragon Shamans heal for 50% more
Collectively Triggered: 40, All of the above effect are activated
Paralysis Resistant: 3, Less likely to become paralyzed. You also recover from paralysis faster.


New Enemy Units

Goblin Mage
http://gyazo.com/60b621a1044cfb8055ea5640a64dcd64.png
Attack type: Ranged Magic
HP: 640
Atk: 181
Def: 0
MR: -

Werewolf
http://gyazo.com/d7b02f8d6e8753764b6117b28bb84171.png
Attack type: Melee Physical
HP: 2000
Atk: 550
Def: 800
MR: 0

Silver Wolf
http://gyazo.com/c1b768d0dd8eb2a5f803660bc39787a0.png
Attack type: Melee Physical
HP: 2400
Atk: 650
Def: 2000
MR: 0

Lesser Vampire
http://gyazo.com/ef6d68dfa7f2cc071b62e9af712b3823.png
Attack type: Melee Physical
HP: 7000
Atk: 300
Def: 0
MR: 0
Note: This enemy has the ability to cause paralysis. If your unit is hit six times by this or any other enemy type that causes this status effect they will become paralyzed for around 12 seconds.

Vampire
http://gyazo.com/86ebd3715f814d67c8f75c9d8895b59d.png
Attack type: Melee Physical
HP: 20000
Atk: 400
Def: 0
MR: 0
Note: This enemy has the ability to cause paralysis. If your unit is hit six times by this or any other enemy type that causes this status effect they will become paralyzed for around 12 seconds.


Maps

Note: This time I'm going with videos from Niconico. It is simply better then Youtube, and I can find video from the original incarnation of the event instead of the revival; where all you see is awakened units.

Avenger

Charisma: 20
Stamina: 1
Experience: 150
Gold at 3☆: 1200
Initial Unit Points: 5
Life: 15
Max # of Deployed Units: 8
Number of Enemies: 31
Video: ?????????????????????3 ? ??????:GINZA (http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm22966526) | ???????????????:?????3? ? ??????:GINZA (http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm22966753)
Drops: http://i.imgur.com/5aWTEjU.pnghttp://gyazo.com/15f4c617c3c777db9648755ab98c8c7b.pnghttp://gyazo.com/3b1ecf1ea8aabedff74145657e3a549f.png


Servant of Darkness

Charisma: 30
Stamina: 1
Experience: 200
Gold at 3☆: 1500
Initial Unit Points: 10
Life: 15
Max # of Deployed Units: 8
Number of Enemies: 52
Video: ??????????????????????3 ? ??????:GINZA (http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm22966632) | ???????????????:??????3? ? ??????:GINZA (http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm22966785)
Drops: http://i.imgur.com/5aWTEjU.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/5aWTEjU.pnghttp://gyazo.com/d69bbdd30eee8bc903e7b8bfe46a7991.pnghttp://i.gyazo.com/acfa007f5838a761ae34ff682e8d1490.png


Maokami Attack

Charisma: 35
Stamina: 2
Experience: 250
Gold at 3☆: 1800
Initial Unit Points: 20
Life: 10
Max # of Deployed Units: 8
Number of Enemies: 44
Video: ???????????????3?CC?? ? ??????:GINZA (http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm22970017) | http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm22966812
Drops:http://i.imgur.com/5aWTEjU.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/5aWTEjU.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/5aWTEjU.pnghttp://gyazo.com/43550d8d4989810f31662e6b1c23b814.pnghttp://gyazo.com/20618e002410c97aa826525ecf34652b.png


Moonlit Night of Battle

Charisma: 40
Stamina: 3
Experience: 300
Gold at 3☆: 2100
Initial Unit Points: 20
Life: 10
Max # of Deployed Units: 8
Number of Enemies: 63
Video: http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm22967147 |http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm22971288
Drops:http://i.imgur.com/5aWTEjU.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/5aWTEjU.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/45k7coE.pnghttp://gyazo.com/84eba1baf0df571828a612e1e82ab826.pnghttp://gyazo.com/15223c718f37cf2d76689a38deb3b4e2.png


Oinosu Kyoku-Kyu

Charisma: 60
Stamina: 3
Experience: 350
Gold at 3☆: 2250
Initial Unit Points: 30
Life: 10
Max # of Deployed Units: 8
Number of Enemies: 29
Video: http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm22967446 | http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm22985665
Drops:http://i.imgur.com/5aWTEjU.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/5aWTEjU.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/45k7coE.pnghttp://gyazo.com/34aa9d6a8e8265aa9b3db175982f21d3.pnghttp://gyazo.com/6d2eea34a101efc7a8f8404fe7778646.png


The Silver Wolf Threat

Charisma: 40
Stamina: 4
Experience: 300
Gold at 3☆: 2700
Initial Unit Points: 30
Life: 10
Max # of Deployed Units: 8
Number of Enemies: 44
Video: http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm23017322 | http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm23018439
Drops:http://i.imgur.com/5aWTEjU.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/45k7coE.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/45k7coE.pnghttp://gyazo.com/a44b92ca0ea5068f7d09e1bb70744891.pnghttp://gyazo.com/13b49fa3fd06ad60e4f30c68b4a8a566.png


Vampire

Charisma: 50
Stamina: 5
Experience: 350
Gold at 3☆: 3000
Initial Unit Points: 30
Life: 10
Max # of Deployed Units: 8
Number of Enemies: 51
Video: http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm23017436 | http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm23021894
Drops:http://i.imgur.com/45k7coE.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/45k7coE.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/BjOspQ4.pnghttp://gyazo.com/01a57d7d02378d38f6b8d0dbde835b57.pnghttp://i.gyazo.com/f3e3e14ac963f66e685cbb0aa1a81600.png


Residents of Darkness Kyoku-Kyu

Charisma: 60
Stamina: 6
Experience: 400
Gold at 3☆: 4500
Initial Unit Points: 30
Life: 10
Max # of Deployed Units: 8
Number of Enemies: 30
Video: http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm23017811 | http://www.nicovideo.jp/watch/sm23029341
Drops:http://i.imgur.com/45k7coE.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/45k7coE.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/BjOspQ4.pnghttp://gyazo.com/8a54a0a8ac372f0e8a89921abbb2f3c7.pnghttp://gyazo.com/6a691ab730c01ecfe096c1443a1c90ae.png



Comments about the event
Honestly, Witches and Mages are probably going to your best friend during this event, and you'll see just how useful Rogues can actually be. For those of you that hit the 'land mine' that was Liana in premium summon. Well guess what she is going to be extremely useful here. Not because she is a black healer, but because she has the ability to remove paralysis. That status effect is going to be a big factor during this event.

Spotlight Units
http://i.gyazo.com/da4338fae9803c789181a671c857e54e.pnghttp://gyazo.com/75876db0bf6ecd8b084d318b3411f7fe.png

New Characters Arriving

Immortal Princess Karma

http://i.gyazo.com/ceec4d92644cbc197aa3264d79684bf7.png
HP: 3240(3720 Awakened)
Atk: 684(782 Awakened)
Def: 454(473 Awakened)
MR: 0
Block: 1
Cost: 18
Skill: She increases her attack and defense by 30% for 13 seconds, during the time this skill is active she cannot die. 1 second WT, 75 second CT.
Ability: N/A
Awakened Skill: She increases her attack by 60% at the cost of her defense becoming 0 for 13 seconds, during the time this skill is active she cannot die. 5 second WT, 65 second CT.
Awakened Ability: Heal all allied units(that can be healed) on the map for 50% of the damage she takes. If she happen to be at 1 HP due to the effects of her skill all damage taken is still read as if she was at full health. Meaning that if she was to take a 1000 damage hit at 1 HP with her skill active she would heal her allies for 500 not 1.


Vampire Princess Karma

http://i.gyazo.com/9723b75111ec88da334f79edb66d8166.png
HP: 2956(3437 Awakened)
Atk: 598(707 Awakened)
Def: 394(430 Awakened)
MR: 0
Block: 1
Cost: 16
Skill: She increases her attack and defense by 30% for 13 seconds. 12.5 second WT, 25 second CT.
Ability: N/A
Awakened Skill: N/A
Awakened Ability: She restores 1% of her maximum HP every time she attacks.


Bounty Hunter Elisabeth

http://i.gyazo.com/b915c56d9ce9189cce9da5ad1318b308.png
HP: 1761(2142 Awakened)
Atk: 353(390 Awakened)
Def: 206(256 Awakened)
MR: 0
Range: 200
Cost: 14
Skill: She increased her attack by 70% and nearly doubles her attack speed for 30 seconds. 20 second WT, 40 second CT.
Ability: N/A
Awakened Skill: N/A
Awakened Ability: She increases her attack range by 10. Bringing it up to 210.


Avenger Vincent

http://i.gyazo.com/08180c083134419a8b8fded9094ecc2c.png
HP: 1440(1805 Awakened)
Atk: 298(339 Awakened)
Def: 160(198 Awakened)
MR: 0
Range: 200
Cost: 13
Skill: He increase his attack range by 70% for 25 seconds. 20 second WT, 30 second CT.
Ability: N/A
Awakened Skill: N/A
Awakened Ability: He has a 20% chance to launch two attacks in a row.


Apprentice Cavalry Mischa(More then likely going to be replaced with Elaine)

http://gyazo.com/f0aff3dad6ce6b2a75d878ef0bb0a5ac.png
HP: 1300
Atk: 513
Def: 277
MR: 10
Block: 1
Cost: 13
Skill: She heals herself for 25% of her maximum health. 30 second WT, 30 second CT.
Ability: N/A
Awakened Skill: N/A
Awakened Ability: N/A



New Classes Being Introduced

Vampire Hunter/Vampire Killer/Undead Killer
Damage Type: Physical
Blocks: -
Role: Rear
Description: Units of this class have a shorter attack range when compared to the Archer class. However, their damage per second is much higher when comparing the same rarity units. This is due to the class firing multiple arrows at once(2 before CC, and 3 after CC). In situation when you do not need the additional range from Archers; A Vampire Hunter will generally be preferred, but know that they are fairly ineffective when dealing with heavily armored units. After awakening, they deal additional damage when attacking undead enemy units. They work very well with buffers like Dancers.

Vampire Princess/Vampire Queen
Damage Type: Magical
Blocks: 1
Role: Duelist, Ganker
Description: The best use of this unit class is a Ganker. She cannot be healed by allied units, but after being awakened can heal herself for 1% of her maximum health every attack.

Immortal Princess/Immortal Queen
Damage Type: Magical
Blocks: 1
Role: Duelist, Ganker, Support(AW)
Description: The best use of this unit class is a lightning rod and boss fighter. When her skill is active she cannot die. Care must be taken to withdraw her before her skill ends if her health is to low. When awakened she will heal every allied unit on the field for half the damage dealt to her(When near death damage taken will still count as if she lost that much life).


Minimum, Average, and Maximum SC cost to achieve a perfect Karma

This is assuming you spent the entire 2 week trying to obtain her, and going in with full stamina and charisma. Passing on everything else. Remember you get 8 SC from the event maps.

100
Min: 10
Avg: 19
Max: 35

101
Min: 8
Avg: 17
Max: 33

120
Min: 8
Avg: 16
Max: 30

140
Min: 8
Avg: 15
Max: 28

160
Mix: 7
Avg: 14
Max: 26

180
Min: 7
Avg: 13
Max: 24

200
Min: 6
Avg: 12
Max: 23

Kotono
06-05-2015, 03:57 PM
Aha, sorry. There was a global image limit I didn't see before.
It has been removed.

Flocci
06-05-2015, 06:29 PM
For anyone worrying about the rng part of the event and the min-avg-max number of crystals, I will copy my post from /jp/ over here.


I shall hereby present you: The ultimate calculation to lay everyone's rng fears at rest! (assuming they can clear the last map)

First: Look at the min/avg/max table for your stamina. The avg number of crystals should allow you to, after clearing the previous maps, run the last map around 92 times, if you start with full stamina and make full use of what you regenerate. I'll assume the worst case scenario of you having only 12 stamina, i.e. each additional crystal gives you 2 more attempts at the map, and for ease of calculation I will assume that you got absolutely 0 serums from any of the previous maps.

(For those interested in the method to check what I did: C=Number of times you cleared the last map. I calculated the chance of getting at least (1200-C*10)/3 hits out of C*2 rolls)

Here are the results:

Chance of not maxing with +1 crystal: 10%

Chance of not maxing with +2 crystals: Roughly the chance of drawing Nanaly from Premium Summon

Chance of not maxing with +3 crystals: Roughly the chance of getting a 4 of a kind on your opening hand in Poker (regular 5 card draw mode)

Chance of not maxing with +4 crystals: Winning the lottery

So basically, if you have even just a few more crystals than the average from the table, you are fine. On the downside, this also means that you can't hope for luck to save a few crystals either, since the chances behave similarly in the opposite direction.

tl;dr: Expect to pay pretty much the average from the posted table above with almost no deviation. I doubt there will be any player paying more than 3 additional crystals, let alone 4.

On a side note, this is all assuming you never mess anything up, so it's probably still a good idea to have a bit of a safety net, in case you fail a map. If you're worried you can't clear the final mission, but can clear the 2nd to last map, I would roughly estimate that you need something like 2-4 ish more crystals. If you can't clear that one either, you should probably give up on maxing her unless you're willing to spend around 50 crystals for it, but getting the black one is still within reach with a reasonable number of crystals.

Also, as a little bonus calculation: If all the little particles in the entire (observable) universe had an Aigis account for the event, you would expect around 100 of them to pay the "max" amount.

Lafate
06-07-2015, 01:35 PM
For anyone worrying about the rng part of the event and the min-avg-max number of crystals, I will copy my post from /jp/ over here.


That was already in the guide moving it here now that the image limit has been lifted.

Flocci
06-07-2015, 03:02 PM
That was already in the guide moving it here now that the image limit has been lifted.

Where in the guide is it? Can't see anything about the actual probabilities in there, just found the raw numbers of "min/avg/max" without any mention of how (un)likely they are. Or maybe I'm just too tired to notice it.

Kotono
06-07-2015, 03:09 PM
Lafate racking up them credits.
Easy monies for you!

Hero
06-09-2015, 12:36 AM
For anyone worrying about the rng part of the event and the min-avg-max number of crystals, I will copy my post from /jp/ over here.



On a side note, this is all assuming you never mess anything up, so it's probably still a good idea to have a bit of a safety net, in case you fail a map. If you're worried you can't clear the final mission, but can clear the 2nd to last map, I would roughly estimate that you need something like 2-4 ish more crystals. If you can't clear that one either, you should probably give up on maxing her unless you're willing to spend around 50 crystals for it, but getting the black one is still within reach with a reasonable number of crystals.

Also, as a little bonus calculation: If all the little particles in the entire (observable) universe had an Aigis account for the event, you would expect around 100 of them to pay the "max" amount.

2 questions:
1- I wonder if those 8 SCs that you get are included in amount for min/max. for example when for lvl 101 it says, average is 17, it means that I need 9 before beginning of event(assuming get 8 from missions) or I need 17 before start of event.
2- I really wonder if we can pass all missions(specially last one) without a lot of CCed characters, in those videos all chars are awakened max lvl ones.... :S I think this event was somehow too soon for English version.

Regards

Kotono
06-09-2015, 02:03 AM
2 questions:
1- I wonder if those 8 SCs that you get are included in amount for min/max. for example when for lvl 101 it says, average is 17, it means that I need 9 before beginning of event(assuming get 8 from missions) or I need 17 before start of event.
2- I really wonder if we can pass all missions(specially last one) without a lot of CCed characters, in those videos all chars are awakened max lvl ones.... :S I think this event was somehow too soon for English version.

Regards

1. I'm pretty sure it just means you need average 17 total, regardless of when or where you get them from.
2. I watched some of those videos earlier, and I was fairly certain that at least some of them used somewhat weaker units. I only double checked one just now, "Vampire", one of the videos does not use any CC'd units - but some of those units are premium/event units, anyway.

Flocci
06-09-2015, 03:16 AM
2 questions:
1- I wonder if those 8 SCs that you get are included in amount for min/max. for example when for lvl 101 it says, average is 17, it means that I need 9 before beginning of event(assuming get 8 from missions) or I need 17 before start of event.
2- I really wonder if we can pass all missions(specially last one) without a lot of CCed characters, in those videos all chars are awakened max lvl ones.... :S I think this event was somehow too soon for English version.

Regards

1. The crystals from the event are not included, so you can do it if you start with only 9. Maxing her is really affordable for a maxed out top tier black unit, if you consider what 9 crystals would usually give you on the gacha. I would still recommend having a bit of a safety net though, in case you don't flawlessly clear everything.

2. I think awakening didn't exist back then, so they should "only" be normal CCs, but the map does look quite intimidating. The lowest I've seen was someone who did it with, like, half the Team CC'd, and his strategy relied heavily on an event mage we skipped on our version, so I'm not sure how well it translates for us. The good thing is that the mission before that looks quite doable and gives almost the same amount of Serum per stam. I don't know how strong your team is, but I wouldn't be surprised if 1 week of preparation would be enough for anyone to become strong enough to clear that map.
You will need a few more crystals that way, but I expect it to be something like.... +2-ish added to the average, but that's just a gut feeling without doing the actual calculation.

On a side note, that map also has a decent chance of dropping Daniela (like, 15% if I remember the numbers from the wiki correctly), so if you need some silver archers for CCing a certain trading post unit, it might be worth doing the 2nd to last map even if you can actually clear the last one with no problems.

Unregistered
06-09-2015, 04:02 AM
1. The crystals from the event are not included, so you can do it if you start with only 9. Maxing her is really affordable for a maxed out top tier black unit, if you consider what 9 crystals would usually give you on the gacha. I would still recommend having a bit of a safety net though, in case you don't flawlessly clear everything.

2. I think awakening didn't exist back then, so they should "only" be normal CCs, but the map does look quite intimidating. The lowest I've seen was someone who did it with, like, half the Team CC'd, and his strategy relied heavily on an event mage we skipped on our version, so I'm not sure how well it translates for us. The good thing is that the mission before that looks quite doable and gives almost the same amount of Serum per stam. I don't know how strong your team is, but I wouldn't be surprised if 1 week of preparation would be enough for anyone to become strong enough to clear that map.
You will need a few more crystals that way, but I expect it to be something like.... +2-ish added to the average, but that's just a gut feeling without doing the actual calculation.

On a side note, that map also has a decent chance of dropping Daniela (like, 15% if I remember the numbers from the wiki correctly), so if you need some silver archers for CCing a certain trading post unit, it might be worth doing the 2nd to last map even if you can actually clear the last one with no problems.

Ty for info.
My main problem is that I messed up at beginning of my games and used up some silver units, so I were not able to CC much units. but I a few good platinum non CC units. here are my main units right now and their stats will go higher till event(Affection in parentheses):

CCed units:

katie lvl 50 CC 41(50%)
cloris lvl 50 CC 40(100%)
mehlis lvl 50 CC 41(100%)
kerry lvl 50 CC 40(100%)

non-CC units:

platinum:
echidna lvl 45(100% -> unit cost 28)
maribel lvl 50(50% -> unit cost 18, skill lvl 3) :s
bashira lvl 50(50%)
lyla lvl 50(50%)
jerome lvl 40(17%)
cypria lvl 40(30%)
hina lvl 40(0%)

silver:
allisa lvl 50(50% -> skill lvl 3)
vallerie lvl 49(0%)
dorca lvl 42(50%)
calliope lvl 43(21%)
leeane lvl 41(24%)
gerald lvl 40(0%)
mortimer lvl 40(0%)
crave lvl 40(0%)
elaine lvl 40(25%)
soma lvl 21(32%)
harissa lvl 21(21%)
phyllis lvl 28(21%)

i have these additional silver units that can be used for CCing:
1 soldier, 3 heavy, 1 archer, 2 rough, 2 bandit, 2 mage

Kotono
06-09-2015, 05:32 PM
It doesn't look to me like you should really have all that many issues with the maps. Maybe the swarms of paralyzing units? I don't really know how difficult those are to handle compared to the above videos. Really hard for me to judge when I've not done the maps myself.

But I think as long as you can tank and kill a lich, then you should be fine. But between now and the event, I'd be working on getting those silver healers CC and leveled to at least 40. You can't go wrong with more healing power.

Lafate
06-11-2015, 12:47 AM
Where in the guide is it? Can't see anything about the actual probabilities in there, just found the raw numbers of "min/avg/max" without any mention of how (un)likely they are. Or maybe I'm just too tired to notice it.

Those are the actual probabilities... it is literally in there name

Minimum is if you are a lucky bastard and get all the drops.... just like maximum is if your luck sucks and you only get the guaranteed drops. Average is just that the average. If you got everything on their drop rate. You didn't get any more or less drops than you should have statistically gotten.

Above average drops would be between min and avg while below average drops would put you between avg and max.

Flocci
06-11-2015, 01:35 AM
Those are the actual probabilities... it is literally in there name

Minimum is if you are a lucky bastard and get all the drops.... just like maximum is if your luck sucks and you only get the guaranteed drops. Average is just that the average. If you got everything on their drop rate. You didn't get any more or less drops than you should have statistically gotten.

Above average drops would be between min and avg while below average drops would put you between avg and max.

Those are not the probabilities, it just tells you when you are above or below average. It just covers which results "can" technically happen, my post was about how likely they are, which was mentioned nowhere in the guide. I've seen people worry their head off because they couldn't reach 35 crystals and thought "what if I'm unlucky and need the max amount?", not knowing that even paying 5 more crystals is so unlikely that it's practically not gonna happen to anyone in the entire history of the game.

Lafate
06-11-2015, 12:40 PM
Those are not the probabilities, it just tells you when you are above or below average. It just covers which results "can" technically happen, my post was about how likely they are, which was mentioned nowhere in the guide. I've seen people worry their head off because they couldn't reach 35 crystals and thought "what if I'm unlucky and need the max amount?", not knowing that even paying 5 more crystals is so unlikely that it's practically not gonna happen to anyone in the entire history of the game.

Actually... you'd only be more likely to get the average. Which it is why it is that. You are not more likely to get all the drops then you are to get none of the drops(that you can miss). You are just as likely to be above average as you are behind. Being on average has the highest probability of occurs because it is just that the average. If it wasn't the most likely to occur for the majority of people it would not be the average.

Haven't exact numbers like.... you have a 1 in 100m chance to have to spend the maximum amount of crystals needed. Doesn't really help or change anything at all. Hell they still wouldn't know what the maximum was.

TL; DR You are more probable to be on average then off it. That is all anyone needs to know in regards to probability unless they are gambling. That is a different kettle of fish.

Kotono
06-11-2015, 01:08 PM
I think the whole point that Flocci; was trying to help explain was geared more towards the 4chan audience that I had seen were worried they wouldn't have enough SC, even though they had more than the "average" needed for their stamina levels.

Flocci
06-11-2015, 01:49 PM
Actually... you'd only be more likely to get the average. Which it is why it is that. You are not more likely to get all the drops then you are to get none of the drops(that you can miss). You are just as likely to be above average as you are behind. Being on average has the highest probability of occurs because it is just that the average. If it wasn't the most likely to occur for the majority of people it would not be the average.

Haven't exact numbers like.... you have a 1 in 100m chance to have to spend the maximum amount of crystals needed. Doesn't really help or change anything at all. Hell they still wouldn't know what the maximum was.

TL; DR You are more probable to be on average then off it. That is all anyone needs to know in regards to probability unless they are gambling. That is a different kettle of fish.

Yes, the average is most likely (in this case), but what people need is not just the most likely scenario, but the likely scenarioS. People don't just want to know when they have an about 50% chance of winning (the average in the middle), but rather when they can feel safe. That's the exact opposite of gambling, gambling would be if you just get the average amount and hope for the best.

The probabilities I gave were not probabilities like 1 in 100m, that's why I cut them off when they got to that point of "not going to happen ever", exactly because those numbers aren't relevant anymore. The relevant numbers listed were the 10% chance, the 1% chance, maybe also the 0.01% chance, because these chances will still happen to the players. The exact point was that everything beyond that is so unlikely that they don't matter.

The reason I made the post in the first place was in reaction to people who were actually afraid of having bad luck. Most people can't intuitively judge how likely these things are, so if they hear something like "max: 35", some actually become afraid of it because they don't know it's a 1 in 100mmmmmmmmmmmmm (yes, this is the number of "m"s, not just an exaggeration) chance. Not everyone can just spontaneously conjure up 35 crystals on the spot, so it's important to know at which number it's already safe.

Tl;dr: The very fact that the max number created a boogeyman that some people were needlessly afraid of shows how the original data gave people the wrong impression and made it necessary to give some additional info to dispel those fears.

VirginPrince
06-11-2015, 02:39 PM
For what it's worth, I appreciate the additional detail for required crystals.

Kotono
06-16-2015, 10:25 AM
Well, I had an urge to buy some crystals. Bought 10,000 gold and ended up spending all the SCs really fast and didn't get Elizabeth. Hmm.

Ok, why not? I got a decent passive income anyway. Another $100 isn't really going to hurt me whatsoever.

Attempt to buy... "Error"
Hmm..
Attempt to buy again ... "Error"
....Ok then, I guess I'll try my credit card instead of my bank card.
"Successful"

And then I reload the page to find I now have 30,000 gold.

wat do

VirginPrince
06-16-2015, 08:30 PM
I find it amusing that rogues still dodge while paralyzed.

Sevrian
06-17-2015, 10:58 AM
I find it amusing that rogues still dodge while paralyzed.

Rogues are badasses '-' they'll dodge even after dead <.<
Kotono lawl 30k gold. Tell them you tried buying twice and got error, maybe? They'll probably refund ya then '-'