Despite the Herbaceous Peony, I think it's a random single roll for steps 3 and 4.

But who cares about that, steps 1 and 2 are a bargain.

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1. Ticket #1 (7/01 - 7/08): Anemone / Cactace / Cattleya / Dendrobium
2. Step-Up #1 (8/05 - 8/12): Random (up to and including Daisy)
3. Ticket #2 (8/12 - 8/19): Fritillaria / Sakura / Mei Plumblossom
4. Step-Up #2 (9/02 - 9/09): Kerria
5. Ticket #3 (9/08 - 9/17): Alpinia / Anemone / Flowering Peach (player-voted)
6. Step-Up #3 (9/15 - 9/22): (Bridal) Cactace, $110 total
7. Ticket #4 (9/29 - 10/06): Cherry / Daisy / Dianthus
8. Step-Up #4 (10/06 - 10/13): Dogwood + ten $5 bonus steps for possible rainbow skill/dressbloom
9. Step-Up #5 (10/13 - 10/20): Black Baccara
10. Ticket #5 (10/20 - 10/27): Dendrobium / Ionocidium / Fritillaria
11. 5* Step-Up #1 (10/27 - 11/3): Four steps, $66 total, 1-2 random golds + a choice of any gold (prior to Lantana / Apple of Sodom)
12. Bridal Oncidium FG gacha (11/3 - 11/10): 10+1 FG roll guaranteed gold special, 20% chance vs. 80% random gold
13. Sakura early Black Friday (11/10 - 11/17): Sakura only, $30 single-roll
14. 5* Ticket #1 (11/17 - 11/24): Single roll, $30 each (up to three times), pick any gold (prior to Epidendrum / Snapdragon)
15. Black Friday ticket special (11/25 - 11/28): $10 11-roll, pick any rainbow except Lycoris / Bridal Oncidium
16. Step-Up #6 (12/2 - 12/9): Lycoris + $30 rainbow skill/dressbloom
17. Step-Up #7 (12/15 - 12/22): Christmas Rose + three steps, 1x secret gift each, NO guaranteed golds
18. Apple/Ivy early Christmas special (12/22 - 12/29): Apple/Ivy only, $30 each
19. New Year's Step-Up (12/30/16 - 1/6/17): Three 11-roll steps, step 1 ($100): regular rates, step 2 ($50): 5* and 6* only (95%/5%), step 3 ($30): 5* and 6* only (90%/10%)
20. Ardisia New Year (1/5 - 1/12): Ardisia only, 25% off ($45), free rainbow skill+dressbloom
21. Nutaku 2nd anniversary (1/13 - 1/16): $30 11-roll, pick one of the five launch rainbows (Black Baccara, Alpinia, Cactace, Mei Plumblossom, Sakura)
22. Step-Up #8 (1/19 - 1/26): Victoria only, step 1 ($45) = single roll (standard rates) + rainbow skill/dressbloom, step 2 ($15) = Victoria
23. Developer's Ticket, part 1 (1/26 - 2/2): $30 11-roll, choose from Evening Primrose, Setaria, Rose, or Violet
24. Developer's Ticket, part 2 (2/2 - 2/9): $50 11-roll, choose from Kerria, Dianthus, Alpinia, or Cattleya
25. Step-Up #9 (2/9 - 2/16): $75 six steps, 1-2 random 5* + gold skillbloom and 1 6* + rainbow skill/dressbloom at the end
26. Valentine's Gacha (2/14 - 2/16): $30 single roll, choose any rainbow (up to and including Helenium)
27. Maple FG Gacha (2/16 - 2/23): 10+1 FG roll guaranteed gold special, 20% chance vs. 80% random gold
28. Random Step-Up #10 (2/23 - 3/2): Five steps, $48, 1 gold + skillbloom, 1 gold + skill/dressbloom, 1 rainbow + dressbloom
29. Spring Break Cleaning Gacha (3/2 - 3/9): Three 11-roll steps, $70/$50/$30, first step contains 4*-6* (82%/16.5%/1.5%), step 2 contains 5*-6* (95%/5%), step 3 contains 5*-6* (90%/10%)
30. Late Christmas Step-Up Gacha (3/9 - 3/16): Four steps, step 1: $5 11-roll (standard rates), step 2 + 3: $25 Apple or Ivy (no dupes), step 4: $40 Mistletoe
31. "One Time Only" Step-Up Gacha (3/16 - 3/23): Five steps, steps 1-3: $9 total, single roll (standard rates), step 4 + 5: $1/$3 for random 5*
32. Ticket #6 (3/30 - 4/6): $60, 11-roll + 6* exchange ticket (all rainbows up to Mistletoe)
33. Random Step-Up #11 (4/6 - 4/13): Step 1+2 (11-roll, standard rates, $8 total), step 3 ($20, random 5*), step 4 ($30, random 6*), step 5 ($15, 50% gold skillbloom or dressbloom), step 6 ($25, 50% rainbow skillbloom or dressbloom)

So the last 2 step is nothing more then skill bloom and dress bloom with no guarantee what you will get...
Is this risky?

Originally Posted by twilightdream

So the last 2 step is nothing more then skill bloom and dress bloom with no guarantee what you will get...
Is this risky?

Yes, not to mention that step 5 is a GOLD bloom. If it were a Rainbow bloom, it would be an okay price, but for gold? I don't think it is. If step 5 and 6 were guaranteed dress blooms it would be a better deal, though I do think 1,500 would be a better value for a rainbow dress bloom.
Step 3 also isn't that great a deal, it's basically the paywall to get to step 4 if you're okay with about any rainbow knight.

any random rainbow knight except Dogwood is good.

Pffft, 4 silver first draw, 6 silver over two draws, no golds

Yet another rich man's gacha. Meh......

Next!

Originally Posted by smr

any random rainbow knight except Dogwood is good.

I bet that deep in your heart you're actually a big Dogwood fan, hoping your pretence of disliking her will sometime result in 11 Dogwoods on a premium pull.

I don't know why you guys focus on the latter steps when you should only be looking at the first two.

Originally Posted by Mindrunner

And how many FKG players will do exactly that? Right...

A lot?

I feel like you're either overestimating the number of whales, or underestimating the number of sensible spenders.

This is hardly the first gacha where going part-way was the better deal as opposed to going all the way.

Originally Posted by Mindrunner

But they will get lured to step 3 & 4 if their 10+1 pulls are shitty. And those guarantee that you'll get atleast 1 5 star and 1 6 star...

Except no?

That's heavy gambler's fallacy speaking.

As far as getting good value out of your spending, then objectively speaking, steps 1 and 2 are a bargain simply because a normal 11-pull would run you ~$50 vs. $3/$5.

Anyone who wanted to roll would obviously jump on that. If they get burned by it, they obviously don't lose as much money, so they'll shrug and call it a day.

If they were shooting for better results, they would've jumped on the previous deal, or wait for one where they could pick their own gold.

Even previous step-up gachas had $10 steps for a guaranteed gold, not $20. It makes more sense to wait for those.

Again, I'm thinking you're overestimating how impulsive some people are, or generalizing the whale population as "anyone who spends, period".

I mean, fuck, if I got bad NG rolls, I'd sooner use my FGs than spend more cash.