2k summons

[anonanonanon]

Thought I'd start a new topic instead of necroing an old one
http://harem-battle.club/millennium-war-aigis/245-100-2k-summons-6.html

I know that the wiki has summon rates but I was wondering if anyone was currently collecting stats on 2k summons?
I remember seeing (somewhere) that the summon rates where changed awhile ago. It also seems odd to me that the only stats I'm aware of are old rates from the DMM version. They also don't include (understandably) plat and blk.

I got used to recording my own 2k summons so I currently have 3000, fairly well organized, including dates.

Is there anywhere I can contribute these to a more modern Nutaku based pool? If not is there any other source for 2k summon stats that may be more accurate? (mostly out of curiosity).

[JMich]

I did start recording my summons in the past few months, though I haven't done that many yet (did a couple more to reach the 300 mark for this post). Out of those 300, 9 were silver, so a silver rate of 3%. Nothing higher yet, though obviously a quite small sample.

[anonanonanon]

At 2000 my stats for silver and gold were 2.25 & 0.05 after my last 1000 they shifted to 2.23 & 0.06
almost identical to the wiki's 2.38 & 0.05
but my silver seems to stay lower than theirs and gold can jump around easily without a very high sample size.
My iron is lower and bronze higher by about 3 points each.

I know this is mostly academic and the difference (if any) is small, but by my 3000 sample size their numbers are off and I still want an idea (even if I'll never get one) of plt & blk %.

[Nero010]

I think the source of which the wiki has the stats from did at least 10.000 summons as base. The plat and black drops where propably so rare (or not happening) that they cant tell an avarage % for them as they would propably need 100.000 and 1.000.000 summons.

[anonanonanon]

25,000
and it did look like they got 3 platinum but just didn't include the stats in the wiki for some reason? Maybe not a large enough sample for a reliable %? I'm not great with statistics or Japanese so I don't know.

Still these are from 2014 and earlier and from DMM. I would be more surprised to find out they are the same as ours now then not.

[IvanLedah21]

In those 25k summons they got 3 platinums, for roughly .01% chance, 13 golds (.05%), obviously those were rounded. Black would likely be .001% and thus require 100,000 summons on average to get one lol. 2.38% for silver isn't terrible though, considering how it's infinite tries as you can farm gold infinitely (unless you're in a rush lol)

[Nero010]

To actualy give avarage percantages you need to be able to reproduce your results as many times as possible to then make an avarage out of your results. If u draw 3 plats u have 3 results and can only make an avarage out of 3 results which is a failure gap thats ways too big. Its not about how many draws u did, its about how many results you got out of these draws. Even the 13 golds are not enough to give an actualy very accurate percantage (but good enough as it seems). They would need to do 1.000.000 summons to give a actual good avarage of plats, not to speak of blacks. And that might not even be enough.
Also i wouldnt wonder at all if the implemented numbers of chances on daily summon didnt get changed since realese of the game at all. And since Nutaku and DMM Aigis both started the same in term of numbers i wouldnt think theres a difference between versions either, unless DMM changed it recently (which wouldnt matter as the results are older).

[IvanLedah21]

To actualy give avarage percantages you need to be able to reproduce your results as many times as possible to then make an avarage out of your results. If u draw 3 plats u have 3 results and can only make an avarage out of 3 results which is a failure gap thats ways too big. Its not about how many draws u did, its about how many results you got out of these draws. Even the 13 golds are not enough to give an actualy very accurate percantage (but good enough as it seems). They would need to do 1.000.000 summons to give a actual good avarage of plats, not to speak of blacks. And that might not even be enough.
Also i wouldnt wonder at all if the implemented numbers of chances on daily summon didnt get changed since realese of the game at all. And since Nutaku and DMM Aigis both started the same in term of numbers i wouldnt think theres a difference between versions either, unless DMM changed it recently (which wouldnt matter as the results are older).

Without hard numbers taken from the code, we'll never have anything but a sample to draw inferences from, regardless of the size. You could argue that even in 1M summons, we might never get a black. Does that mean the chance is 0? Nope, some people have done it apparently (scary good luck, I know). 25k summons is a decent sample size to get a good estimate of the actual chances. Going up to 1M summons for the sake of increased accuracy when ultimately EVERYONE knows "the odds of a black are ridiculously low, don't ever do base summon expecting, or even hoping, for a black. Even platinum is a ridiculous long shot" is kind of wasted effort. The highest unit type people do base summons expecting to get without 1k+ summons is a silver, which is roughly 2-3%

[anonanonanon]

As I said, I know it's mostly academic. just curious. I suppose there is no current effort to gather summon data and I don't care enough to start a joint pool myself. I will probably continue to record my own out of habit and curiosity.

[Nero010]

Without hard numbers taken from the code, we'll never have anything but a sample to draw inferences from, regardless of the size. You could argue that even in 1M summons, we might never get a black. Does that mean the chance is 0? Nope, some people have done it apparently (scary good luck, I know). 25k summons is a decent sample size to get a good estimate of the actual chances. Going up to 1M summons for the sake of increased accuracy when ultimately EVERYONE knows "the odds of a black are ridiculously low, don't ever do base summon expecting, or even hoping, for a black. Even platinum is a ridiculous long shot" is kind of wasted effort. The highest unit type people do base summons expecting to get without 1k+ summons is a silver, which is roughly 2-3%

You missunderstood me to some degree^^
The OP wanted to get some more detailed numbers on plats and blacks from base summon, my post just explained why there is no "more accurate" chances for plats or blacks. I was never saying we need, or have to, or should do the by me roughly estimated numbers in order to get an avarage, the opposite is the case, i stated them to say why we dont.

I have to say though that ur not right about ur assumption we´d never could get any "accurate avarages" in theorie which can get actualy pretty close (if not even exactly match) the games percantages. If u repeat something often enough u will close in on its true value infinetly getting closer (until this "infinite" is so small differences are redundant). Practical highly doubtful to be worth the effort but nonetheless not impossible.

[IvanLedah21]

You missunderstood me to some degree^^
The OP wanted to get some more detailed numbers on plats and blacks from base summon, my post just explained why there is no "more accurate" chances for plats or blacks. I was never saying we need, or have to, or should do the by me roughly estimated numbers in order to get an avarage, the opposite is the case, i stated them to say why we dont.

I have to say though that ur not right about ur assumption we´d never could get any "accurate avarages" in theorie which can get actualy pretty close (if not even exactly match) the games percantages. If u repeat something often enough u will close in on its true value infinetly getting closer (until this "infinite" is so small differences are redundant). Practical highly doubtful to be worth the effort but nonetheless not impossible.

1st paragraph I'll give to you. 2nd, I said we'll never have anything but a sample to draw inferences from, i.e. estimated numbers. Yes the theory of averages says that as sample size grows larger we'll get closer to the "true value" but I think we're both agreeing that doing so is largely pointless as nobody ever expects anything higher than silver, and the rare lucky gold.

[anonanonanon]

I think we're both agreeing that doing so is largely pointless as nobody ever expects anything higher than silver, and the rare lucky gold.

But I can dream :rolleyes:

[Nero010]

Thats right^^

And i wish the dream to come true for some of us some day.
But i would be happy with a black from premium summon already xD
Or a gold from base SP Summon :x

[anonanonanon]

I'll just keep expecting a plat/blk and I'm sure I'll get one eventually ;)
I've only done about 10 premium and got Mikoto so I think I've used up my premium luck (I love her)
I haven't done even 1 SP summon because I insist on saving until I can expect at least a gold and a good chance of plat. Got 300 so far.

[Unregistered]

What's the point in saving them? You could be rolling units that could potentially be helping your team right now, maybe even saving you some fodder that you might otherwise waste on lower tier units. The idea behind chances is you can never "expect" anything. The idiocy prevalent in a lot of the people that play this game in their thinking related to the gacha is ridiculous.

The sole valid reason you could ever give for waiting on SP summons is you particularly need a certain class of silver for AW that you expect more to get added to the game in the near future. (Nenya and Mischa specifically, new story maps, etc.) Otherwise you're just being a superstitious fool.

[IvanLedah21]

What's the point in saving them? You could be rolling units that could potentially be helping your team right now, maybe even saving you some fodder that you might otherwise waste on lower tier units. The idea behind chances is you can never "expect" anything. The idiocy prevalent in a lot of the people that play this game in their thinking related to the gacha is ridiculous.

The sole valid reason you could ever give for waiting on SP summons is you particularly need a certain class of silver for AW that you expect more to get added to the game in the near future. (Nenya and Mischa specifically, new story maps, etc.) Otherwise you're just being a superstitious fool.

Mostly, but not entirely, valid. You miss the point that if you desire a unit that hasn't been released but should be in the coming months, then you might as well save your SCs and wait for their release before rolling.

While your point that you might roll a unit that could help your team, or more fodder for AW, is valid, at the same time you can't expect to roll said fodder (example, if all you need is Witches , then you can't [I]expect your summons to get even one). Sure, you're GUARANTEED not to get that fodder via summoning if you don't summon at all, but you could easily end up "wasting" those SCs and then have your desired unit(s) released a few months later and have to build up your SCs again.

Alternatively, if your team is already solid, with all key units AW, there's not really a rush to AW more, is there? Y NOT wait for new units to be introduced before rolling?


TLDR: It's not "idiocy" to save your SCs if you don't need new units or fodder not dropped in current events, it's perfectly valid in such situations to save them and wait for new units to be released (we've already had Jessica (Mage Armor) and now Dark Knights released for new classes, no reason not to expect more new units in the coming months). Granted, anon's wording was sketchy and I'm not entirely sure I understand his last sentence (SP? Do you mean Piece of Crystal? You already said you did about 10 premium summons...)

[JMich]

What's the point in saving them? You could be rolling units that could potentially be helping your team right now, maybe even saving you some fodder that you might otherwise waste on lower tier units. The idea behind chances is you can never "expect" anything.
Personally, I'm currently hoarding my crystals for the next collection event, which should be giving us a healer. Considering my best healers are AW Iris and AW Fedora, I'm in dire need of a better one. So I could try to roll one of the shrine ones when they next appear in a spotlight, or spend ~50 crystals (probably less) for a perfect event unit. Yes, she will be weaker, but the chances to perfect her are also much higher than the chances of getting a platinum+ healer from the shrine.

[Unregistered]

You know he was talking about SP Summon crystals right?
Anyway, if you are lacking unit space you also want to hold them instead of rolling right away

[JMich]

You know he was talking about SP Summon crystals right?
Ah, no I misread that. Yes, SP summon crystals are usually spent as soon as they arrive.

[anonanonanon]

Sorry if my wording was confusing. I did mean Piece of Crystal for SP summon.

I want to save up and spend them all at once when I have enough for a 90+% chance of plat so I feel like I'm buying one instead of gambling for it. I know my chances are no better if I save them than spending them right away but it makes me feel better (dumb, I know).

I also need more room for units. I shouldn't seeing as how I'm a free player and have the second barracks but I'm still full of shit I don't want to sell off. I just sold 60 gold spirits because I needed the room.

[Unregistered]

Ivan, I was obviously referring to Piece of Crystal SP summons, not SC Premium summons. The fact that they can earn stamp card rewards in increments and also be spent on refilling Stamina and Charisma should be enough to clue you in that I wasn't talking about them.

@anon, as long as you understand you're just giving yourself a placebo that's fine. If that feeling is worth enough to potentially hurt yourself in the long term then by all means, spend how you see fit. Also if you've already saved at least 300 Piece of Crystal then you've had ample opportunity to buy all the barracks upgrades which provide plenty of space for free players especially. Selling spirits is such a waste and I've never felt like I had too many spirits, if you start getting high you can always combine them with your Hashim fodder for bonus xp, even if you have no gold rarity units to raise its still better than outright selling them off.

[lolix]

Ivan, I was obviously referring to Piece of Crystal SP summons, not SC Premium summons. The fact that they can earn stamp card rewards in increments and also be spent on refilling Stamina and Charisma should be enough to clue you in that I wasn't talking about them.


its your mistake then , considering that the conversation was about sp cristals in the first place

[Unregistered]

What? I know the conversation was about SP crystals, everything I've said has been about SP crystals, I don't know where anyone got that I was talking about SC. I know english isn't a first language for everyone on these forums but I'm very confused about how you can possibly get things this turned around when my first post never mentioned SC.

[IvanLedah21]

Ivan, I was obviously referring to Piece of Crystal SP summons, not SC Premium summons. The fact that they can earn stamp card rewards in increments and also be spent on refilling Stamina and Charisma should be enough to clue you in that I wasn't talking about them.

@anon, as long as you understand you're just giving yourself a placebo that's fine. If that feeling is worth enough to potentially hurt yourself in the long term then by all means, spend how you see fit. Also if you've already saved at least 300 Piece of Crystal then you've had ample opportunity to buy all the barracks upgrades which provide plenty of space for free players especially. Selling spirits is such a waste and I've never felt like I had too many spirits, if you start getting high you can always combine them with your Hashim fodder for bonus xp, even if you have no gold rarity units to raise its still better than outright selling them off.

Wait, hold on a moment. Piece of Crystal (from the stamp card/subjugation events) can be used to refill stamina/charisma and expand barracks? Since when? Sacred Crystals can, PoC are used in increments of 5 for free summons that are somewhere between Base and Rare in drop rates.

I'm not sure you understand the terminology you're using, because at least on Nutaku, Piece of Crystal has nothing to do with stamina/charisma refills or stamp card UP or barracks upgrading. And on Nutaku, there is no such thing as SP Crystals, there are Sacred Crystals, Demon Crystals and Piece of Crystal

[Unregistered]

Serious? "They" is referring to SC in that second sentence. Again if you'd use simple context clues it is easy to figure out which I'm referring to but I suppose I have to be very direct in my terminology every sentence or people mistake you for being an idiot who doesn't understand what each resource in this game does -.- I don't play on DMM at all so saying "on Nutaku" is redundant as I'm not confusing things with the DMM side. By SP crystals I obviously mean the Piece of Crystal items used for SP summons and SP summons only that can only be used with Piece of Crystal. Is that clear enough yet?

[IvanLedah21]

Serious? "They" is referring to SC in that second sentence. Again if you'd use simple context clues it is easy to figure out which I'm referring to but I suppose I have to be very direct in my terminology every sentence or people mistake you for being an idiot who doesn't understand what each resource in this game does -.- I don't play on DMM at all so saying "on Nutaku" is redundant as I'm not confusing things with the DMM side. By SP crystals I obviously mean the Piece of Crystal items used for SP summons and SP summons only that can only be used with Piece of Crystal. Is that clear enough yet?

Sigh... breaking that down...

"They" is referring to SC in that second sentence
OK, re-reading that, I can see that.

Again if you'd use simple context clues it is easy to figure out which I'm referring to but I suppose I have to be very direct in my terminology every sentence or people mistake you for being an idiot who doesn't understand what each resource in this game does -.-
Just because I misread what you said doesn't mean you have to get all snappy with me. I'm not in game, never really paid attention to what the Piece of Crystal summon is called, so sorry if I don't connect SP to Piece of Crystal right away.

I don't play on DMM at all so saying "on Nutaku" is redundant as I'm not confusing things with the DMM side
You're an unregistered user, how am I supposed to know whether or not you play on DMM?

By SP crystals I obviously mean the Piece of Crystal items used for SP summons and SP summons only that can only be used with Piece of Crystal
As I said, not in-game and didn't know what the PoC summon is called, sorry.

Is that clear enough yet?
Yes, now please dial the confrontational level down a bit.


Sorry if I'm now being harsh, but I just feel you really overreacted so I'm responding somewhat in kind.
It's still perfectly valid to wait on SP summoning until new silvers, and even golds (rare as they'll still be in SP summon, chances aren't much better than base) are added if you are hoping for those. Just because chances are much lower in Base/SP summon than Premium doesn't mean you have to act like Gold+ doesn't exist for SP summon

[Unregistered]

I'm being snappy because too often people respond with the first thing out of their ass without even reading the post well enough to understand what's being discussed. Mistakes are fine but it happens far too often on this forum, and from the same people. Many times it would be better if you just don't respond at all if all you are bringing to the table is confusion and misinformation. I gave what I thought was fine advice, and a regged user comes along and says it's not valid, even though that's because you seem to have misread it. Can you really blame someone for "getting snappy" when they are incorrectly corrected and then told to "dial it down"? Finally, I also already pointed out the exception of new silvers being added. (again highlighting that you aren't comprehending very well)

Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

[anonanonanon]

@anon, as long as you understand you're just giving yourself a placebo that's fine. If that feeling is worth enough to potentially hurt yourself in the long term then by all means, spend how you see fit. Also if you've already saved at least 300 Piece of Crystal then you've had ample opportunity to buy all the barracks upgrades which provide plenty of space for free players especially. Selling spirits is such a waste and I've never felt like I had too many spirits, if you start getting high you can always combine them with your Hashim fodder for bonus xp, even if you have no gold rarity units to raise its still better than outright selling them off.

I do realize it's just a placebo and I'm fine with that.
I have the second barracks but I have about 180 units that are silver+ and the bronze units that I keep because they are fully lvled and I sometimes use them. I currently have 85 spirits and tin cans. The rest of my second barracks is 100% full of fodder (mostly bronze) that I save for when units are over lvl 30 and when I AW units. When I AWed my Spika I lvled her to 90 instantly because of the bronze+tin cans+spirits.

100 gold spirits seemed excessive to me and the 2000 gold I get seems better to me than a bronze units value in exp.

[IvanLedah21]

I'm being snappy because too often people respond with the first thing out of their ass without even reading the post well enough to understand what's being discussed. Mistakes are fine but it happens far too often on this forum, and from the same people. Many times it would be better if you just don't respond at all if all you are bringing to the table is confusion and misinformation. I gave what I thought was fine advice, and a regged user comes along and says it's not valid, even though that's because you seem to have misread it. Can you really blame someone for "getting snappy" when they are incorrectly corrected and then told to "dial it down"? Finally, I also already pointed out the exception of new silvers being added. (again highlighting that you aren't comprehending very well)

Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

I misunderstood, responded based on the misunderstanding, and then with your clarification admitted I misread your post and apologized. I agree with your exception of new silvers being added, and added new gold units to that because even if the chances aren't great, they're non-existent if they haven't been added yet when you roll. I'd like to request we end our current hostility now.

BTW, I understand your frustration with mistakes and misunderstandings on forums, happens quite often to me as well. Hoping this apology settles the issue.


@Anon, using the gold spirits as opposed to selling them, when not used on a gold unit, would be worth it if you used them with a Silver+ unit instead of the bronze fodder you have stockpiled. Otherwise, it's just easier to use 4 bronze fodder since they're so easily farmed. If you don't mind me asking, how long have you been playing? It would seem you've been playing a LONG time if you have that much fodder stockpiled, and yet at the same time, you have ALL your units leveled? Not even niche units left to level? I rarely have a surplus of spirits but I do level lots of units I may never use because either 1) I MIGHT use them in the right situation and/or 2) Just to CC for the extra scene ; )
Either way, if you're just waiting on new units to level/CC/AW then I guess it's OK to sell spirits but I personally would rather sell the fodder than the spirits (especially since I run Spirit Rescue G and Women's Battle on weekends, so I don't get many gold spirits anymore, so when new Gold units from Shrine or events come along, I often find myself short on gold spirits)

[anonanonanon]

I've been playing since the end of April 2015. I have most units leveled that I use or are likely to use (But only 2 AW with 2-3 more ready). Only 3 gold units used regularly, 3 more occasionally, and 15 I never use. The ones I never use are lvl 50 but not CCed. Being stuck at the "Wall of Magic" afforded me far too many gold spirits to use on just gold units and I don't use silver+ for fodder unless they are the same unit and when I do I use the appropriate spirit for 2x-8x exp so even then the gold spirits are not useful.

The closest I will get to selling silver units is "trading" them for the units in the trading post (Which I did to get Niel,Ertel and fully CR Percis & Khuri) and the bronze fodder I currently have will be used to quickly lvl Mikoto once I AW her.

If this is how you feel I probably shouldn't tell you about the time I sold 20 black spirits before I had my second barracks. My only black at the time was Saki and she was already leveled, Even now my only other black is Mikoto and she was fully leveled instantly and ready for AW and will be rapidly leveled after that as well(Hopfully next week, this week I couldn't get the last orb no matter how much I tried, damn you RNGesus)

[IvanLedah21]

I've been playing since the end of April 2015. I have most units leveled that I use or are likely to use (But only 2 AW with 2-3 more ready). Only 3 gold units used regularly, 3 more occasionally, and 15 I never use. The ones I never use are lvl 50 but not CCed. Being stuck at the "Wall of Magic" afforded me far too many gold spirits to use on just gold units and I don't use silver+ for fodder unless they are the same unit and when I do I use the appropriate spirit for 2x-8x exp so even then the gold spirits are not useful.

The closest I will get to selling silver units is "trading" them for the units in the trading post (Which I did to get Niel,Ertel and fully CR Percis & Khuri) and the bronze fodder I currently have will be used to quickly lvl Mikoto once I AW her.

If this is how you feel I probably shouldn't tell you about the time I sold 20 black spirits before I had my second barracks. My only black at the time was Saki and she was already leveled, Even now my only other black is Mikoto and she was fully leveled instantly and ready for AW and will be rapidly leveled after that as well(Hopfully next week, this week I couldn't get the last orb no matter how much I tried, damn you RNGesus)

...Damn, I can't imagine ever selling black spirits instead of Bronze fodder... like, EVER. Unless you happen to farm Spirit Rescue G, Black Spirits are always at a premium, especially if you're also blocked by the Wall of Magic. Of course, I understand you're not willing to hold on to them indefinitely if you're F2P, as it will take ages to get another black beyond Saki (and the Mikoto you have now), since you DO want room, but still... holding on to easily farmed Bronze fodder over black spirits is... wow... lol

[anonanonanon]

At the time I sold the black spirits I had no bronze fodder. I think I was collecting silver & platinum units from event and combining the plat w/ 3 plat spirits each. Needed all the room for them and didn't have barracks expansions, probably around 170 slots. No room for 20 fairies I wouldn't need in he foreseeable future :p

Of course now I will need more than I have saved up and can only farm spirit X :(

[IvanLedah21]

At the time I sold the black spirits I had no bronze fodder. I think I was collecting silver & platinum units from event and combining the plat w/ 3 plat spirits each. Needed all the room for them and didn't have barracks expansions, probably around 170 slots. No room for 20 fairies I wouldn't need in he foreseeable future :p

Of course now I will need more than I have saved up and can only farm spirit X :(

Ah, so that's it. I was like "who the hell would sell BLACK Spirits instead of bronze fodder???" lol, anyways the silver farming isn't a bad reason to sell black spirits, especially if you'd need them for CC/AW fodder. But yeah, if you can't farm Spirit Rescue G, and are stuck on Wall of Magic... you're going to be hurting for black spirits once you get a black unit or two