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sanahtlig
03-06-2017, 01:04 PM
I've prepared a user-friendly spreadsheet allowing users to manipulate some of the analysis parameters. This will allow users to figure out their chance of getting kamihime in a given number of rolls, and also allow the analysis to be easily updated as the Gatcha is updated in-game.
Sanahtlig's Kamihime Project R Theorycrafting (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PhfOAQk6EyK5l33ux_C4T-cexVIQp6D-_Hbd-OO1OmQ/edit#gid=1286596725)

Explanation of methodology and summary of results

I originally assumed, as did many others, that the likelihood of pulling a kamihime, a non-kamihime weapon, and an eidolon was proportional to the number of possibilities in a given rarity tier. This turned out to be FALSE. The data collected from 1000 rolls show that the rate of pulling a weapon vs. an eidolon is about 50% across all rarity tiers. Conversely, the relative rate of pulling a kamihime (vs. a non-kamihime weapon) increases with increasing rarity (which is offset by the diminishing chance of pulling a given rarity). This unexpected result required the analysis to be redone. I also factored in the guaranteed SR+ on 10-rolls. Note that the SSR rates are based on an insufficient number of data points (11 kamihime draws) and therefore are only approximate (I need 2000 more rolls or 200 10-rolls for the rates to be reliable).

https://i.gyazo.com/96fc270927e49764291f50d292b1d12d.png

VortexMagus
03-06-2017, 03:05 PM
Quick question, I see that your SR formula has 0.15 for the chance of drawing an SR put in, but your SSR formula doesn't have the 0.03 chance of drawing an SSR factored in, no?

sanahtlig
03-06-2017, 04:57 PM
Quick question, I see that your SR formula has 0.15 for the chance of drawing an SR put in, but your SSR formula doesn't have the 0.03 chance of drawing an SSR factored in, no?
The SSR equation was a copy/paste of the SR equation, and I forgot to change the necessary numbers (.15 -> 03 and .12 -> .22). I updated it just now. The end result is unchanged.

- - - Updated - - -

I've added a spreadsheet to the OP which summarizes these results and allows users to customize the parameters.

vysethevaliant
03-06-2017, 05:25 PM
What bothers me most isn't necessarily the low SSR draw rates (although I'd love it if they were higher), it's that even when we get a guaranteed SSR event (usually through the purchase of Nutaku Gold) that we get a random SSR in the process and not one we can choose for ourselves.

The thing I really enjoyed about Granblue Fantasy, the game Kamihime Project was so heavily inspired from, was the monthly (give-or-take) ticket purchases, where for 3,000 yen you got a ticket redeemable for a ten-pull in-game (that you could use at any time) as well as a ticket, redeemable for seven days after buying the bundle, that you could exchange for any of the current available SSR characters/summons through the in-game gatcha at that specific point. This made grabbing the one character to really finish off your team extremely easy and guaranteed your money wouldn't be wasted. You could even have a chance to get more than the guaranteed ticket SSR through the included ten-pull ticket, but even if you didn't at least they'd know for sure you'd get something out of it.

From what I've read, the way it works in KamiPro is you spend money on the SSR ticket and you get a random one in-return. Not exactly fine, considering very specific character are needed to finish certain teams, and with more characters being added to the gatcha over the coming months it'll be even more difficult going after the one you have your eye on.

I have absolutely no issue spending money on this game, but I'd like some guarantee first that I'm going to get something out of it. Randim SSR tickets, through the purchase of Nutaku Gold, is not a great way to go about things, which is a shame considering the game is essentially a carbon-copy of GBF (except in the one area where it really matters, the gatcha). It doesn't help that in-game currency is extremely limited.

I re-rolled for Sol and have done another 3k pull since then. No other SSR or SR Kamihime, aside from Brynhilldr who's useless for me since I already have Sol (funny how that works out, huh?). I did get a couple SR summons, but those are also meaningless since event SSR summons are so much better (since they're farmable and can fully Limit Break them).

If they don't make it easier to get specific Kamihime, I can see myself losing interest in this game really quickly. It's a shame, since I do enjoy it, but I literally have nothing to work on right now (aside from continuing to Limit Break Sol and unlocking/leveling more Souls). :/

President Ramu
03-06-2017, 09:01 PM
I have absolutely no issue spending money on this game, but I'd like some guarantee first that I'm going to get something out of it. Randim SSR tickets, through the purchase of Nutaku Gold, is not a great way to go about things, which is a shame considering the game is essentially a carbon-copy of GBF (except in the one area where it really matters, the gatcha). It doesn't help that in-game currency is extremely limited.

If you don't mind me asking... why do you pay money for this game?

I understand that someone has to do it, and I'm not knocking you for it. I just legitimately don't understand how people throw down money for these sorts of things. Likesay, I've paid money for some cosmetics and some tournament stuff in Dota, but that seems a hell of a lot more useful seeing as I was playing Dota like a fulltime job and the cosmetics were for heroes I played all the time. The stamina system prevents me from playing this as much as I'd like (you know, aside from playing multiple accounts at a time like a crazyperson) so it just doesn't grab me the same way. Let alone with the very real problems you outlined above.

I'm probably one of the most diehard rerollers here, so I get having a strange fascination with the game and putting some time into it. But money seems like a bridge too far considering what we get out of it. I also do some user experience research work professionally, so I'm kind of baffled by how people pay so much into these sorts of things for (what seems to me) not much return.

This question's to anybody who happens to read it as well, I'm just generally curious. Thanks folks.

naenae
03-06-2017, 09:13 PM
If you don't mind me asking... why do you pay money for this game?

I understand that someone has to do it, and I'm not knocking you for it. I just legitimately don't understand how people throw down money for these sorts of things. Likesay, I've paid money for some cosmetics and some tournament stuff in Dota, but that seems a hell of a lot more useful seeing as I was playing Dota like a fulltime job and the cosmetics were for heroes I played all the time. The stamina system prevents me from playing this as much as I'd like (you know, aside from playing multiple accounts at a time like a crazyperson) so it just doesn't grab me the same way. Let alone with the very real problems you outlined above.

I'm probably one of the most diehard rerollers here, so I get having a strange fascination with the game and putting some time into it. But money seems like a bridge too far considering what we get out of it. I also do some user experience research work professionally, so I'm kind of baffled by how people pay so much into these sorts of things for (what seems to me) not much return.

This question's to anybody who happens to read it as well, I'm just generally curious. Thanks folks.

The answer to this one is simple. I have no life, no girlfriend, and don't really want either. What else am I supposed to do with an extra 20 bucks every couple weeks? Usually I just like to get a new rainbow flower girl occasionally but after kamihime came out my interest in that game has dropped considerably.

VortexMagus
03-07-2017, 01:29 AM
If you don't mind me asking... why do you pay money for this game?

I understand that someone has to do it, and I'm not knocking you for it. I just legitimately don't understand how people throw down money for these sorts of things. Likesay, I've paid money for some cosmetics and some tournament stuff in Dota, but that seems a hell of a lot more useful seeing as I was playing Dota like a fulltime job and the cosmetics were for heroes I played all the time. The stamina system prevents me from playing this as much as I'd like (you know, aside from playing multiple accounts at a time like a crazyperson) so it just doesn't grab me the same way. Let alone with the very real problems you outlined above.

I'm probably one of the most diehard rerollers here, so I get having a strange fascination with the game and putting some time into it. But money seems like a bridge too far considering what we get out of it. I also do some user experience research work professionally, so I'm kind of baffled by how people pay so much into these sorts of things for (what seems to me) not much return.

This question's to anybody who happens to read it as well, I'm just generally curious. Thanks folks.

The sad thing is, 6 hours or so of rerolling for 2 or 3 ssr characters at the start is basically the equivalent of spending hundreds of dollars in this game - at 30$ per 10 draws and 3% for SSR a draw, those are some expensive as fuck characters. Probably better off just writing a script to reroll for you rather than paying actual money into this game for something that isn't guaranteed.

President Ramu
03-07-2017, 02:26 AM
Exactly. I could easily write a program to just reroll in multiple windows and save the "good" rolls into a spreadsheet or something, but... who would I even sell them to? It stands to reason that I...

naenae
03-07-2017, 02:48 AM
I swear to god Nutaku just gave me the finger. I got two ssr weapons in the premium gacha less than a minute ago. Both are Snowy Staff of Nibelheim. No kami comes with it. Fuck you nutaku, fuck you indeed.

President Ramu
03-07-2017, 02:50 AM
I swear to god Nutaku just gave me the finger. I got two ssr weapons in the premium gacha less than a minute ago. Both are Snowy Staff of Nibelheim. No kami comes with it. Fuck you nutaku, fuck you indeed.

On my first account I've gotten Artemis 3 times. Once each time I've pulled the jewel gacha.

Dragonlich
03-08-2017, 11:57 PM
Stupid Q: gem gatcha is for N and R or have some chances to roll SR something?

jazz154
03-09-2017, 12:14 AM
Stupid Q: gem gatcha is for N and R or have some chances to roll SR something?

It was answered before. Gem gacha is only N and R (right now there is 6 R kamihimes in it: Boreas (wind), Rusalka (water), Nergal (fire), Urania (light), Indria (lightning) and Perun (lightning))

And if it will follow jp version (almost guaranteed that it will) then later there will be 6 more rares: Baphomet (fire), Zephyrus (wind), Undine (water), Astaroth (dark), Mephistopheles (dark) and Orpheus (light).

nazrin992
03-09-2017, 12:44 AM
For f2p, it is very hard to draw Jewel gacha. 3k draw and you got nothing but weapon, ssr eidolon(kaisers), and rare kamihime.

So not worth it. I got one SR kamihime from 300 draw.

Sadly, this is pretty greedy as it urges you to spend hard. Gacha is not cheap and jewels are hard to collect because usual value is 50 per clusters aside from login bonus.

Thankfully, there are free tickets in this game in end of login bonus and in the shop as well. Just be prepared to work extra hard in the shop ones.

YGT
03-13-2017, 03:17 PM
If you don't mind me asking... why do you pay money for this game?

Good question. I stupidly thought I'd pay a few $$ to get one of the current 'featured' KHs to complete my squad and make the game more enjoyable. Instead I got 10 completely useless items.

Everyone please learn from my mistake: don't ever pay for this game. EVER.

jazz154
03-14-2017, 05:16 AM
Good question. I stupidly thought I'd pay a few $$ to get one of the current 'featured' KHs to complete my squad and make the game more enjoyable. Instead I got 10 completely useless items.

Everyone please learn from my mistake: don't ever pay for this game. EVER.

Really? Where people like you even come from? You see increased odds for drawing particular kamihime and you somehow managed to confuse it with guaranteed?

Either way, I paid 15$ because I thought that it isn't really that much to pay if I enjoy the game. I even thought about paying more but then I started noticing that weird censorship.

Aidoru
03-14-2017, 08:55 AM
You can find those kind of people in any community that has a cash shop with RNG items/gacha. The ones that try to encourage people not to use them because they had bad luck.

Find it humorous he says learn from his mistake when he doesn't even know what his mistake is in the first place.

sanahtlig
03-14-2017, 09:28 AM
I created this topic to help users understand the likelihood of getting something useful from Gatcha (that is, lower than one might think at first glance). Unfortunately, the base assumption--that every possibility in each rarity tier is equally likely--remains unverified. Understanding this is important, as kamihime are the only truly useful draw. If we don't understand the rate of obtaining kamihime, we don't understand Gatcha.

Nitewolf
03-14-2017, 02:13 PM
For f2p, it is very hard to draw Jewel gacha. 3k draw and you got nothing but weapon, ssr eidolon(kaisers), and rare kamihime.

So not worth it. I got one SR kamihime from 300 draw.

Sadly, this is pretty greedy as it urges you to spend hard. Gacha is not cheap and jewels are hard to collect because usual value is 50 per clusters aside from login bonus.

Thankfully, there are free tickets in this game in end of login bonus and in the shop as well. Just be prepared to work extra hard in the shop ones.

See, I think the tickets you can get from log-in and in events are the crap ones. I got nothing but R eidolons that I can get on regular maps from those so far. Yet on the 3k jewel draws (all done with jewels collected for free from the game) I got 2 SSR kamis already. I'm again halfway to the next 3k draw, so it's not as hard to get jewels as you make it sound.

YGT
03-14-2017, 05:10 PM
Find it humorous he says learn from his mistake when he doesn't even know what his mistake is in the first place.

And I find it humorous that you felt inclined to respond even though you apparently have the reading comprehension of a below-average kindergartner.

But whatever- players can decide for themselves if they want to waste money too, RNGesus and all that.

Abu
03-14-2017, 05:31 PM
See, I think the tickets you can get from log-in and in events are the crap ones. I got nothing but R eidolons that I can get on regular maps from those so far. Yet on the 3k jewel draws (all done with jewels collected for free from the game) I got 2 SSR kamis already. I'm again halfway to the next 3k draw, so it's not as hard to get jewels as you make it sound.

I disagree. I count hours upon hours of grinding to be hard work indeed. Save your jewels until something you see that benefits your team pops up in gacha and pray to rngesus. Personally, I look out more for decent sr kami than ssr. It makes my goals a lot more reasonable without whaling. I'm looking forward to Uranus and bikini Brynhildr

Aidoru
03-14-2017, 06:12 PM
And I find it humorous that you felt inclined to respond even though you apparently have the reading comprehension of a below-average kindergartner.

But whatever- players can decide for themselves if they want to waste money too, RNGesus and all that.

The good ol repeat the person and ad hominem.

First you encourage other to not use their money now you encourage them to use it while calling it waste, which again goes back to my original post. Just because you had a negative experience with something doesn't mean you should force that view on others.

ham
03-15-2017, 11:56 PM
The Gacha in this game is pretty brutal. There's too many useless SSR weapons with no Kamihime.

I tried a $30 Premium Gacha pull to support the game just now, during Amatseru rate up, and got some random SSR Axe that I'll never use. I'm not going to continue and can't support this business model. Why would they put a bunch of useless random SSR weapons into the Gacha at an already low 3% SSR rate?

Until those useless SSR weapons get removed or until the guarantee Kamihime tickets are out, no more money is coming from me.

sanahtlig
03-16-2017, 12:10 AM
I sent a ticket to Nutaku Game Support (Kamihime Project R, sub-category Gatcha), reading as follows:

Could you provide a breakdown of the likelihood of drawing a kamihime vs. a weapon with no kamihime vs. an eidolon in the Premium Gatcha? If it varies by rarity (R, SR, SSR), then please provide the rates for SSR.

I intend to share this response publicly to inform users considering spending on Premium Gatcha. Thank you for taking the time to respond to this important question.

felix
03-18-2017, 03:36 PM
recorded 20 rolls so far if you need that info

weapons
ssr 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sr 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
r 3 2 3 1 2 4 6 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 5 1 3 2 5 4

hime
ssr 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
sr 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 1 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 3 0 1 0
r 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 1 4 1 2 1 0

summon
ssr 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sr 0 1 1 0 1 0 4 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 2 1
r 1 4 4 6 4 3 0 5 6 4 3 4 4 4 2 3 3 4 1 4

1 row= 1 3k jewel roll

sanahtlig
03-18-2017, 08:52 PM
recorded 20 rolls so far if you need that info

weapons
ssr 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sr 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
r 3 2 3 1 2 4 6 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 5 1 3 2 5 4

hime
ssr 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
sr 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 1 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 3 0 1 0
r 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 1 4 1 2 1 0

summon
ssr 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sr 0 1 1 0 1 0 4 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 2 1
r 1 4 4 6 4 3 0 5 6 4 3 4 4 4 2 3 3 4 1 4

1 row= 1 3k jewel roll
This is excellent. With this data, I crunched some numbers, and came to the following conclusions based on the R data only (the number of events for the others was too low for consideration). My full calculations are available in the spreadsheet linked in the OP.

https://i.gyazo.com/d191f5216aa92316d01e1eda9fb08001.png

Every possibility among kamihime, non-kamihime weapon, and eidolon is NOT equally likely.
Eidolons are much more frequent draws than expected. Non-kamihime weapon draws are less frequent. Kamihime draws may be somewhat more frequent (difference is small and may be insignificant).

Without more data, I cannot determine if the same category rates apply to SR or SSR draws. I need 30 events in each category for proper statistical testing, or about 100 10-rolls for SR.

Unregistered
03-19-2017, 02:58 AM
Meanwhile, a few days ago, Granblue Fantasy had a free daily 10 time premium draw, free guarantee SSR/SR ticket and free premium currency to celebrate their 3rd birthday anniversary. It makes me wonder if Nutaku would be do the same. I like how they allow oversea players to play japanese server with english translation, so that they would able to enjoy the same content as japanese players. I personally think that Grandblue Fantasy is a better alternative as Cygames has good reputation in Japan and the West.

Secondly, their games like Shadowverse is also one of the most popular game on steam.(Although the western version has censorship but thankfully can be solved with uncensor patch.) They often give away free cards when they release a new content or reached a new milestones.

If I'm going to compare Nutaku and Cygames in terms of free to play games, I think the latter are better.

nazrin992
03-22-2017, 10:03 PM
Meanwhile, a few days ago, Granblue Fantasy had a free daily 10 time premium draw, free guarantee SSR/SR ticket and free premium currency to celebrate their 3rd birthday anniversary. It makes me wonder if Nutaku would be do the same. I like how they allow oversea players to play japanese server with english translation, so that they would able to enjoy the same content as japanese players. I personally think that Grandblue Fantasy is a better alternative as Cygames has good reputation in Japan and the West.

Secondly, their games like Shadowverse is also one of the most popular game on steam.(Although the western version has censorship but thankfully can be solved with uncensor patch.) They often give away free cards when they release a new content or reached a new milestones.

If I'm going to compare Nutaku and Cygames in terms of free to play games, I think the latter are better.
It may or may not come in the future. Honestly Granblue is a giant compared to the tiny Kamihime. Ofc they don't lose much by give things out for free.

And technically, you can do the free 10 premium draw. All you have to do is collect the tickets from login bonus and events.

Unregistered
03-23-2017, 03:19 AM
Honestly Granblue is a giant compared to the tiny Kamihime. Ofc they don't lose much by give things out for free.

Do you have a solid evidence to prove that Granblue is giant to Kamihime?



And technically, you can do the free 10 premium draw. All you have to do is collect the tickets from login bonus and events.
Does free 10 premium draw guarantee a SR/SSR kamihime/eidolon? The free birthday Grandblue event allows you to do that. Granblue also give free ticket just by logging in.

nazrin992
03-23-2017, 08:44 AM
Do you have a solid evidence to prove that Granblue is giant to Kamihime?



Does free 10 premium draw guarantee a SR/SSR kamihime/eidolon? The free birthday Grandblue event allows you to do that. Granblue also give free ticket just by logging in.

I'm pretty sure that Granblue Fantasy is more well-known worldwide compared to Kamihime which is hentai game first and foremost.

And with your reply to second quote, you lose me. Do you even play the game?

Skulkraken
03-23-2017, 09:28 AM
...Granblue makes enough money for Cygames to be able to afford spending an estimated 300 million yen ($2.6-2.8 million) on a single newspaper advertisement.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6g0lGVV0AEkA5E.jpg

Kamihime might be popular for a DMM game, but I seriously doubt its players could ever hope to whale hard enough to match that. :p

Unregistered
03-23-2017, 11:06 AM
Could you please elaborate what have i lost about second quote? <br />
<br />
I stopped playing nutaku games due to their mis-translation, censorship and not faithful to the original Japanese release as...

nazrin992
03-24-2017, 01:05 PM
Simple, you got free tickets in Kamihime as well. No, not really guarantee stuffs but you get them.

Ooh, I know that much. It's matter of generosity vs greed. Cygames are in tune with their playerbase while others just want the MOONEY. It's just corporation. Like our dear nubtaku here.

As the previous poster said, GBF just have whales to support them. Does that actually influence the generosity? I don't know, I never play the game since it was first introduced in mobile world. But I'm pretty sure like most f2p games, they want you to whale for the game before giving out free stuffs.

And one thing. If you don't even play nubtaku games anymore, why are you here? I'm pretty sure you have better time spent on playing GBF or go to their community rather than into nubtaku forum. And I am here being a loyal f2p.

Unregistered
03-25-2017, 02:50 PM
Simple, you got free tickets in Kamihime as well. No, not really guarantee stuffs but you get them.

Ooh, I know that much. It's matter of generosity vs greed. Cygames are in tune with their playerbase while others just want the MOONEY. It's just corporation. Like our dear nubtaku here.

As the previous poster said, GBF just have whales to support them. Does that actually influence the generosity? I don't know, I never play the game since it was first introduced in mobile world. But I'm pretty sure like most f2p games, they want you to whale for the game before giving out free stuffs.

And one thing. If you don't even play nubtaku games anymore, why are you here? I'm pretty sure you have better time spent on playing GBF or go to their community rather than into nubtaku forum. And I am here being a loyal f2p.

If you interested in Granblue Fantasy, the game is available on computer with English translation. Like Kamihime, you can play the game with google chrome. The game can be downloaded from chrome web store.

For your generous well thought response, I will share the link from the official website:
Link: granbluefantasy.jp/en/download/

The reason I am here, is because I noticed DMM have already started to localize the games by themself.

They published game called OBCIDIAN LEGACY on steam.
Link: store.steampowered.com/app/568190/

And Dandy Dungeon for mobile.
Link: play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.dmm.games.yamada&hl=en

DMM is a very popular website among anime fans. And whenever a website like Siliconera, Crunchyroll and Anime News Network publish an article about DMM games(like new upcoming games like Dead or Alive browser game), I can't help but to think of nutaku when it comes to english localization. As a former player who has played Millennium War Aigis, Kanpani Girls, Flower Knight Girls and Osawari Island. I'm hoping that DMM will localise browser game by their own. I wanted to see if DMM has taken an active role in Nutaku. I wanted to see if Nutaku has been changed and improve recently. But woe is me, sanahtlig has reported that Kamihime was censored by Nutaku once again. Not to mention Nutaku did not officially notify to user that Kamihime will have censorship. It make me sad that Nutaku has mishandled famous DMM games.

As for grandblue fantasy, I did enjoyed the story content. However I found out that I have to join the guild event and do coop quest to have maximum experience. That means I have to keep up with others which may leads to peer pressure. I left the game afterwards. However I did like how they handled the english translation for oversea players.

A reddit user named purge00, mention that:
"One of the benefits is that we are all playing the same JP version of the game. Often times, JP mobile games are published separately for Global, and the game becomes less generous in compensation, handouts, or even core features. Nobody likes to be treated as a second-rate citizen."

- - - Updated - - -

Downside of Granblue on PC is that the interface is still designed for mobile, especially the dimensions of the playing screen itself. It's annoying/strainful for the eyes to look at such a tiny window when so much room is available on a monitor.

- - - Updated - - -



- - - Updated - - -

Downside of Granblue on PC is that the interface is still designed for mobile, especially the dimensions of the playing screen itself. It's annoying/strainful for the eyes to look at such a tiny window when so much room is available on a monitor.

That's understandable. I do hope that they update the interface like Kamihime. Kamihime Mobile and PC interface are very different.

Lothario
03-25-2017, 03:29 PM
Ok back on topic, I had some free time so I decided to collect some more data for OP.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h50CB6M2Z8uo0DuxX9rgWnhhfceIhO2LjzOz_0zh3Ns/edit#gid=698248666

Ericridge
03-25-2017, 05:23 PM
What bothers me most isn't necessarily the low SSR draw rates (although I'd love it if they were higher), it's that even when we get a guaranteed SSR event (usually through the purchase of Nutaku Gold) that we get a random SSR in the process and not one we can choose for ourselves.

The thing I really enjoyed about Granblue Fantasy, the game Kamihime Project was so heavily inspired from, was the monthly (give-or-take) ticket purchases, where for 3,000 yen you got a ticket redeemable for a ten-pull in-game (that you could use at any time) as well as a ticket, redeemable for seven days after buying the bundle, that you could exchange for any of the current available SSR characters/summons through the in-game gatcha at that specific point. This made grabbing the one character to really finish off your team extremely easy and guaranteed your money wouldn't be wasted. You could even have a chance to get more than the guaranteed ticket SSR through the included ten-pull ticket, but even if you didn't at least they'd know for sure you'd get something out of it.

Looks like it's time for me to give Granblue Fantasy a spin.

I'm tired of being denied Tyr and Michael through gacha.

Almost everyone on my friend list has a tyr or michael and it really bothers me so I stopped looking at their profiles.


Wait what, why'd Gran blue fantasy go back to japanese halfway into the tutorial? -.-
That was weird had to restart browser to get at that language option change and reset it.

Unregistered
03-25-2017, 07:02 PM
Looks like it's time for me to give Granblue Fantasy a spin.

I'm tired of being denied Tyr and Michael through gacha.

Almost everyone on my friend list has a tyr or michael and it really bothers me so I stopped looking at their profiles.


Wait what, why'd Gran blue fantasy go back to japanese halfway into the tutorial? -.-

Perhaps these youtube videos might help:
Link: youtube.com/watch?v=iz3U0zp8pJk
Link: youtube.com/watch?v=lA7HbTBJ3fk

Alternatively, one of the youtube video mention that you can download the game from AndApp website.(Note: I never used that website before, Secondly, I can't post the effective link in this post.)

One of a youtube comment mention this:

Yuzuki-Tan:
"Can I do this before that extremly long tutorial so i have a chance to understand what they are explaining?"

sbfky:
"you should be able to do it. Since you have to pick the settings before the game starts."

Yuzuki-Tan:
"oh i found it, there was a confirm setting under the language choice, i still had to go through like a hour long tutorial in japanese so damn annoying"

sbfky
"sorry to hear that."

Yuzuki-Tan:
"its fine i can play the thing now, is the game like etrian oddysey? it looks like it a lot."

More articles about english version:
Link: gameskinny.com/csnga/how-to-play-japanese-mobile-hit-granblue-fantasy-in-english-on-your-pc
Link: steparu.com/previews/miscellaneous/2010-granblue-fantasy-english-patch-is-now-available

- - - Updated - - -

Updated with working link:

AndApp mainpage:
Link: andapp.jp/

sanahtlig
03-27-2017, 03:53 PM
Ok back on topic, I had some free time so I decided to collect some more data for OP.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h50CB6M2Z8uo0DuxX9rgWnhhfceIhO2LjzOz_0zh3Ns/edit#gid=698248666
Good job. I used this data to calculate the category rates for SRs. My full calculations are available in the spreadsheet linked in the OP.
https://i.gyazo.com/b360ad78cde2acf10c16b52b4970239a.png

Based on this data from 1000 rolls (100 10-rolls), we can conclude with high confidence that category weights differ by rarity tier. While R kamihime are observed at a frequency that resembles what would be expected with no weights at all, SR kamihime are far more likely to be drawn than lone SR weapons, and SR eidolons are also drawn at a higher frequency than their share of total SR possibilities would suggest. This confirms that the Gatcha rates provided in-game are incomplete because they give no information about the relative likelihood of pulling kamihime vs. eidolons vs. weapons.

Given data from 200 more 10-rolls, I can determine the category weights for SSRs, giving us a full picture of Gatcha rates that should remain accurate even as more Gatcha items are added in future updates. This is information that Nutaku should've provided to users to begin with, but has chosen to withhold. These rolls can come from any combination of users over any period of time, so long as you decide to document and report the roll before you see the results.

Lothario
03-30-2017, 10:09 AM
I'd collect more data once the event is over, also I'd love to find out more regarding the rate up with certain kamihimes as well. At the time the data was collected, it was shown that Amaterasu/Acala/Ifrit had a higher pull rate but out of the 100, I did not get any of them :confused:

sanahtlig
04-08-2017, 09:56 AM
I've updated the OP with the results of my analysis. Updates include:

Incorporation of data from 1000 rolls to empirically determine category rates (kamihime vs. non-kamihime weapon vs. eidolon).
Factoring in the guaranteed SR+ in 10-rolls.
Added an estimate of the total # of kamihime of a given rarity one could expect from N 10-rolls.

The results should now be robust for R and SR, and approximate for SSR.

Sanahtlig's Kamihime Project R Theorycrafting (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PhfOAQk6EyK5l33ux_C4T-cexVIQp6D-_Hbd-OO1OmQ/edit#gid=1286596725)

https://i.gyazo.com/96fc270927e49764291f50d292b1d12d.png

Unregistered
05-20-2017, 07:16 AM
I've updated the OP with the results of my analysis. Updates include:

I used your data... I think the following summary table, which is easy to calculate, is also much more useful:

Per 300 Jewel:
SSR SR R Total
Kami 1.10% 8.60% 9.70% 19.40%
Eido 1.10% 11.60% 33.30% 46.00%
Wea 0.10% 4.10% 30.40% 34.60%
Total 2.30% 24.30% 73.40% 100.00%

Per 3000 Jewel (chance of 1 or more):
SSR SR
Kami 10.471% 59.312%
Eido 10.471% 70.858%

- - - Updated - - -

By the way, with my results, I'm getting nowhere near 50% chance of SSR Kamihime for $98 (3.3 rolls).
My calculations show it to be 50.184% chance at 6.3 rolls.

- - - Updated - - -

How did you get 19.03% from raw data of 11/1000?
This is probably where our results diverge.
My calculation method is quite simple.
11/1000 = 1.1%
1.1%C10 = 10.471%
1.1%C63 = 50.184%

sanahtlig
05-20-2017, 09:24 AM
By the way, with my results, I'm getting nowhere near 50% chance of SSR Kamihime for $98 (3.3 rolls).
My calculations show it to be 50.184% chance at 6.3 rolls.
You're misreading the table. The category rates are the rate of pulling a given type (kamihime, eidolon, weapon) within a given rarity tier. They're estimated from empirical data and used to generate the subsequent tables. This method is less subject to random biases because the category rates are much higher than the rate of obtaining a SSR, dampening the impact of variance. Also, we know the rarity rates exactly; they don't need to be estimated.

This misunderstanding happens frequently so I've revised the table to try and be clearer.

Also, I have no idea where you're getting the 50% chance of SSR kamihime from 3.3 rolls. My spreadsheet currently shows that a 50% rate is achieved at 4.8 10-rolls.

Unregistered
05-20-2017, 01:02 PM
Also, we know the rarity rates exactly; they don't need to be estimated.

This misunderstanding happens frequently so I've revised the table to try and be clearer.

Also, I have no idea where you're getting the 50% chance of SSR kamihime from 3.3 rolls. My spreadsheet currently shows that a 50% rate is achieved at 4.8 10-rolls.
1. Where are the exact rates?
2. The 50% from 3.3 rolls is from your 4th/5th tables in your OP, where it states 3.3 rolls $98 for 50% chance of SSR Kamihime. Using 1.1% SSR Kamihime probability, 50% occurs at the 63rd roll, not 48th roll.
Formula is 1 - (1 - r)^n = p
where:
r = rate per pull
n = number of pulls
p = probability of at-least 1 pull of r rate

- - - Updated - - -

Formula is 1 - (1 - r)^n = p

So if we want to isolate n...
(1 - r)^n = (1 - p)
n * log(1 - r) = log(1 - p)
n = log(1 - p) / log(1 - r)
n = log(50%) / log(98.9%) = -0.30102999566398119521373889472449/-0.00480370840282059472713473451959
n = 62.666167556553876882697804745512

sanahtlig
05-20-2017, 02:09 PM
1. Where are the exact rates?
2. The 50% from 3.3 rolls is from your 4th/5th tables in your OP, where it states 3.3 rolls $98 for 50% chance of SSR Kamihime. Using 1.1% SSR Kamihime probability, 50% occurs at the 63rd roll, not 48th roll.
Formula is 1 - (1 - r)^n = p
1. The game states that the SSR rate is 3%.
2. I multiply that 3% by the category rate for kamihime in the SSR tier (47.83%). That equals a SSR kamihime rate of 1.43%, not 1.1%. That's likely why our end results are different.

Saberborn
12-26-2017, 10:42 AM
I've updated the OP with the results of my analysis. Updates include:

Incorporation of data from 1000 rolls to empirically determine category rates (kamihime vs. non-kamihime weapon vs. eidolon).
Factoring in the guaranteed SR+ in 10-rolls.
Added an estimate of the total # of kamihime of a given rarity one could expect from N 10-rolls.

The results should now be robust for R and SR, and approximate for SSR.

Sanahtlig's Kamihime Project R Theorycrafting (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PhfOAQk6EyK5l33ux_C4T-cexVIQp6D-_Hbd-OO1OmQ/edit#gid=1286596725)

https://i.gyazo.com/96fc270927e49764291f50d292b1d12d.png

Sorry to necropost but I'm curious if this data changed at all with the gacha removing non-hime SSR weapons from the mix? Is it safe to say it's still approximately $200 USD for a SSR kamihime?

sanahtlig
12-26-2017, 05:29 PM
Sorry to necropost but I'm curious if this data changed at all with the gacha removing non-hime SSR weapons from the mix? Is it safe to say it's still approximately $200 USD for a SSR kamihime?
Is it confirmed that non-kamihime SSR weapons have been removed from Premium and Jewel Gatcha?

Saberborn
12-26-2017, 05:42 PM
Is it confirmed that non-kamihime SSR weapons have been removed from Premium and Jewel Gatcha?

See 12/10/17 news post. I can't verify its validity beyond that.

8382

sanahtlig
12-26-2017, 05:49 PM
See 12/10/17 news post. I can't verify its validity beyond that.
Sadly, I don't consider official news bulletins on Nutaku to be a reliable info source (not with all the misinformation they put out). I need confirmation that people who've done hundreds of 10-rolls of Jewel Gatcha haven't gotten any SSR weapons without kamihime.

Laventale
12-26-2017, 10:22 PM
Sadly, I don't consider official news bulletins on Nutaku to be a reliable info source (not with all the misinformation they put out). I need confirmation that people who've done hundreds of 10-rolls of Jewel Gatcha haven't gotten any SSR weapons without kamihime.

I've been re-rolling for weeks (almost 6 weeks) and I can confirm that I haven't get a single kamiless weapon from the Jewel Gacha for a while now. Only Kamis and Eidos.

sanahtlig
12-26-2017, 11:39 PM
I've been re-rolling for weeks (almost 6 weeks) and I can confirm that I haven't get a single kamiless weapon from the Jewel Gacha for a while now. Only Kamis and Eidos.
Alright, I adjusted the category rates to remove kami-less weapons from the SSR rarity tier. It actually doesn't change the rates much since the kami-less rate was already low.