Popularity Contest #2 Winner's Gacha (4/20 - 4/27)

[Eab1990]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/164720104863563776/304620191621316609/2017-04-20_09.11.23.jpg

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/164720104863563776/304620632119967744/2017-04-20_09.13.19.jpg

$30 for an 11-roll + exchange ticket.

Might skip this one, I don't need Peony that badly.

Compiled list of sales:
1. Ticket #1 (7/01 - 7/08): Anemone / Cactace / Cattleya / Dendrobium
2. Step-Up #1 (8/05 - 8/12): Random (up to and including Daisy)
3. Ticket #2 (8/12 - 8/19): Fritillaria / Sakura / Mei Plumblossom
4. Step-Up #2 (9/02 - 9/09): Kerria
5. Ticket #3 (9/08 - 9/17): Alpinia / Anemone / Flowering Peach (player-voted)
6. Step-Up #3 (9/15 - 9/22): (Bridal) Cactace, $110 total
7. Ticket #4 (9/29 - 10/06): Cherry / Daisy / Dianthus
8. Step-Up #4 (10/06 - 10/13): Dogwood + ten $5 bonus steps for possible rainbow skill/dressbloom
9. Step-Up #5 (10/13 - 10/20): Black Baccara
10. Ticket #5 (10/20 - 10/27): Dendrobium / Ionocidium / Fritillaria
11. 5* Step-Up #1 (10/27 - 11/3): Four steps, $66 total, 1-2 random golds + a choice of any gold (prior to Lantana / Apple of Sodom)
12. Bridal Oncidium FG gacha (11/3 - 11/10): 10+1 FG roll guaranteed gold special, 20% chance vs. 80% random gold
13. Sakura early Black Friday (11/10 - 11/17): Sakura only, $30 single-roll
14. 5* Ticket #1 (11/17 - 11/24): Single roll, $30 each (up to three times), pick any gold (prior to Epidendrum / Snapdragon)
15. Black Friday ticket special (11/25 - 11/28): $10 11-roll, pick any rainbow except Lycoris / Bridal Oncidium
16. Step-Up #6 (12/2 - 12/9): Lycoris + $30 rainbow skill/dressbloom
17. Step-Up #7 (12/15 - 12/22): Christmas Rose + three steps, 1x secret gift each, NO guaranteed golds
18. Apple/Ivy early Christmas special (12/22 - 12/29): Apple/Ivy only, $30 each
19. New Year's Step-Up (12/30/16 - 1/6/17): Three 11-roll steps, step 1 ($100): regular rates, step 2 ($50): 5* and 6* only (95%/5%), step 3 ($30): 5* and 6* only (90%/10%)
20. Ardisia New Year (1/5 - 1/12): Ardisia only, 25% off ($45), free rainbow skill+dressbloom
21. Nutaku 2nd anniversary (1/13 - 1/16): $30 11-roll, pick one of the five launch rainbows (Black Baccara, Alpinia, Cactace, Mei Plumblossom, Sakura)
22. Step-Up #8 (1/19 - 1/26): Victoria only, step 1 ($45) = single roll (standard rates) + rainbow skill/dressbloom, step 2 ($15) = Victoria
23. Developer's Ticket, part 1 (1/26 - 2/2): $30 11-roll, choose from Evening Primrose, Setaria, Rose, or Violet
24. Developer's Ticket, part 2 (2/2 - 2/9): $50 11-roll, choose from Kerria, Dianthus, Alpinia, or Cattleya
25. Step-Up #9 (2/9 - 2/16): $75 six steps, 1-2 random 5* + gold skillbloom and 1 6* + rainbow skill/dressbloom at the end
26. Valentine's Gacha (2/14 - 2/16): $30 single roll, choose any rainbow (up to and including Helenium)
27. Maple FG Gacha (2/16 - 2/23): 10+1 FG roll guaranteed gold special, 20% chance vs. 80% random gold
28. Random Step-Up #10 (2/23 - 3/2): Five steps, $48, 1 gold + skillbloom, 1 gold + skill/dressbloom, 1 rainbow + dressbloom
29. Spring Break Cleaning Gacha (3/2 - 3/9): Three 11-roll steps, $70/$50/$30, first step contains 4*-6* (82%/16.5%/1.5%), step 2 contains 5*-6* (95%/5%), step 3 contains 5*-6* (90%/10%)
30. Late Christmas Step-Up Gacha (3/9 - 3/16): Four steps, step 1: $5 11-roll (standard rates), step 2 + 3: $25 Apple or Ivy (no dupes), step 4: $40 Mistletoe
31. "One Time Only" Step-Up Gacha (3/16 - 3/23): Five steps, steps 1-3: $9 total, single roll (standard rates), step 4 + 5: $1/$3 for random 5*
32. Ticket #6 (3/30 - 4/6): $60, 11-roll + 6* exchange ticket (all rainbows up to Mistletoe)
33. Random Step-Up #11 (4/6 - 4/13): Step 1+2 (11-roll, standard rates, $8 total), step 3 ($20, random 5*), step 4 ($30, random 6*), step 5 ($15, 50% gold skillbloom or dressbloom), step 6 ($25, 50% rainbow skillbloom or dressbloom)
34. 5* Step-Up #12 (4/13 - 4/20): Step 1+2 (1 + 11-roll, standard rates, $4 total), step 3 ($20, single roll + 5* exchange ticket), step 4 ($15, 50% gold skill/dressbloom)
35. Easter Exchange Ticket Gacha (4/14 - 4/17): $15 11-roll + 6* exchange ticket
36. Popularity Contest #2 Winner's Gacha (4/20 - 4/27): $30 11-roll + exchange ticket for Lycoris, Black Baccara, or Herbaceous Peony

[makinaz]

I'll pass. Hook me up with another $5 11-draw next week
please and thanks.

[paraphin]

30€ for a 6* and a 10+1 roll, not the worst deal.

4444

well, at least one new 5* ^^

from ticket i chose BB. all 3 girls doesn't have that good skills, so the TP bitch in me got the overhand :D

[DMAsh]

Seeing the price tag on this gacha makes me wonder if there really was a point of voting in the first place for some of the playerbase.

[Eab1990]

It's technically better than last year's popularity contest, which only gave us a shitty priority gacha that didn't even have increased rates (so gg voting two rainbows and the one gold most people already had).

[maotd]

Hey guys, why do you even complain about that? It's a fucking 50% DISCONUT. (http://img110.xooimage.com/files/7/0/f/disconut-52179c0.jpg)

[Bloodsport Bloom]

Nameless's Blameless Gold DISCONUTS, now on sale 50% off.

Dunno about this. Probably going to pass. Getting 3 6 Stars in the last week makes this seem almost like overkill.

[unknown67]

And here I am, still patiently waiting for another 11 + gold ticket FG gacha... I have nearly 250 FG (236 right now, should be over 250 before the end of the next limited gacha special) saved for the occasion.

[Zandel]

And here I am, still patiently waiting for another 11 + gold ticket FG gacha... I have nearly 250 FG (236 right now, should be over 250 before the end of the next limited gacha special) saved for the occasion.

You are aware that when it comes to those ticket gatcha they only give you the ticket once right?

[unknown67]

Only for the ones you pay for in Nutaku gold. You can do as many rolls as you have the FG for the 11+gold ticket specials. That's the only reason I have Onci bride, I didn't get her until my third or fourth 5+ ticket.

[paraphin]

wasn't the last 10+1 ticket gacha 5* only through the ticket? you got as much ticket as you draw 10+1, but it gave you only a knight from the 5* pool, or am i mixing up smt?

[makinaz]

wasn't the last 10+1 ticket gacha 5* only through the ticket? you got as much ticket as you draw 10+1, but it gave you only a knight from the 5* pool, or am i mixing up smt?

The one he's referring to was 80% chance for gold, 20% for Bonci.

[Bloodsport Bloom]

Nobody wants to admit they voted for Black Boobara.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[steele1743]

Nobody wants to admit they voted for Black Boobara.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.

From where I'm standing, there's everything wrong with it. It's actually disappointing. This was an opportunity to get some rainbows up there that were completely uncommon or...just...not freaking Big Boobera (who I hate...) and Lycoris...jeez...lame pick too in my opinion.
My god...there's a TON of Knights to go for but these 3??? I would have possibly gone for the gatcha but there's no way I have any interest now, since, in my opinion, there's nothing of interest to go for.

[AgentFakku]

Saw some comments about this on Discord a few hours ago (had to scroll up quite a bit).

One person is blaming the furry lovers, another is blaming the bigtit lovers...

LOL

I like both fetishes did vote for both them

[Bloodsport Bloom]

"Well like, that's like, your opinion, man."

But in while I agree (Herbaceous is cute but not worth the price of the ticket for me, Lycoris is in the same boat as I'm currently juggling too many Mages/new girls at the moment but otherwise would have interested me, and if I'm going to take a new Slice girl I'd personally take Fritti) that the results weren't my personal cup of tea, there's nothing wrong with the winners. It was a popularity contest and those girls are the most popular, apparently.

And then there are the fetish people. They like what they like man. I'm sure some people hate Friti's leather but for other's that's what floats their boat and so forth.

I can see why people did vote for BB outside of just sex appeal though, from what I hear she's OP once bloomed and strong as hell to begin with. A lot of people probably just wanted the opportunity to get a copy of her and were hoping for great sales prices from the gacha. Though I will never understand how Anthurium only came in 50th...

[Bloodsport Bloom]

"ZOMG, WANTZ DA BONERZ NOW!!!111!11eleventy"

This made me giggle. I dunno, I'm sure quite a few other players didn't vote for the girl that gave them the hardest boner.
Although I'm sure 99% of the people who've become forumers are not the people who are playing with constant boners. Lack of blood in the brain tends to make rational conversation difficult.

[Eab1990]

Had a shitty day at work.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/164720104863563776/305096514630582272/unknown.png

Situation not really improved.

Meh. Herbaceous Peony get.

[Zandel]

Had a shitty day at work.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/164720104863563776/305096514630582272/unknown.png

Situation not really improved.

Meh. Herbaceous Peony get.

TBH getting 1 gold is at least decent. Shame it's a dupe but a lot of people get nothing buy silver / bronze.

[Maladaptive]

TBH getting 1 gold is at least decent. Shame it's a dupe but a lot of people get nothing buy silver / bronze.

There is a 55% chance to draw at least one Gold or Rainbow in a 10+1 draw (.93^11), and therefore a 45% chance to only get Silver and Bronzes.

Understandably, a 10+1 draw can easily be disappointing (45%). A single Gold is average. A Rainbow or 2 or more Golds is winning.

[Zandel]

There is a 55% chance to draw at least one Gold or Rainbow in a 10+1 draw (.93^11), and therefore a 45% chance to only get Silver and Bronzes.

Understandably, a 10+1 draw can easily be disappointing (45%). A single Gold is average. A Rainbow or 2 or more Golds is winning.

That might be the change but RNG Gods do not believe in chance, you hear of more people getting no gold then those who get at least one.

[Bloodsport Bloom]

Double rainbow? Check.
Gold? Check.

Yeah I'd say you're a winner.

[Discoceris]

There is a 55% chance to draw at least one Gold or Rainbow in a 10+1 draw (.93^11), and therefore a 45% chance to only get Silver and Bronzes.

Understandably, a 10+1 draw can easily be disappointing (45%). A single Gold is average. A Rainbow or 2 or more Golds is winning.

What kind of math is that? 10 + 1 is not a pool, cumulative, or aggregate. All 10 + 1 is the fact that you choose to roll ten times at once, and receive an extra roll for free.

The odds of seeing any one particular girl remains the same. 6★ still has a 0.5% chance, regardless if you rolled once, or ten times in a row.

I myself have experienced at least 3 10+1 rolls where the highest I had was a 4★, and one of those rolls where nothing but 3★.

Edit: To clarify, the quote was assuming a pool which has a fixed number (high end) and also assumes that you will not (a) pull duplicates, triplicates, etc. and (b) that somehow each additional roll beyond the first increases the chances of obtaining something that you had not already obtained. Both do not square away with my experience, and that of many thousands of other players, and no where did Nutaku said that your normal 10 + 1 pull guaranteed anything (Unless there's a special circumstance, like receiving a ticket, but that DOES NOT COUNT when calculating the odds, because the ticket is outside the function of the gacha)

Edit 2: What I think many people don't realize is that gacha follows the same principles as a gambler at a craps table, or any other game of chance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy


The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e., independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations, but is most strongly associated with gambling, where such mistakes are common among players.

[Drip]

What kind of math is that? 10 + 1 is not a pool, cumulative, or aggregate. All 10 + 1 is the fact that you choose to roll ten times at once, and receive an extra roll for free.

The odds of seeing any one particular girl remains the same. 6★ still has a 0.5% chance, regardless if you rolled once, or ten times in a row.

I myself have experienced at least 3 10+1 rolls where the highest I had was a 4★, and one of those rolls where nothing but 3★.

Edit: To clarify, the quote was assuming a pool which has a fixed number (high end) and also assumes that you will not (a) pull duplicates, triplicates, etc. and (b) that somehow each additional roll beyond the first increases the chances of obtaining something that you had not already obtained. Both do not square away with my experience, and that of many thousands of other players, and no where did Nutaku said that your normal 10 + 1 pull guaranteed anything (Unless there's a special circumstance, like receiving a ticket, but that DOES NOT COUNT when calculating the odds, because the ticket is outside the function of the gacha)

Edit 2: What I think many people don't realize is that gacha follows the same principles as a gambler at a craps table, or any other game of chance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Ah, but avarages do exist, even in RNG. It just doesn't simply work additively, and often you need to make odd calculations to get the results you want. When you plot out all the possible resultsand the chance for them to happen, you get the well known Bell Curve (because it's shaped like a bell). Still, it remains RNG, and people (gamblers specifically) like to take their chances at getting something from the far right side of the curve, even though they have the same chance at ending up on the far left side, and that the peak of the bell curve is just the most common result, but that no guarantee is ever given that you'll actually manage even that result.

[Unregistered]

Oh hey. Math. I'm really freaking bored, so why not.

...

Pulling up the odds for a single roll in the "Winner's Gacha", they are as follows:

* 0.5% : Six star
* 6% : Five star
* 30% : Four star
* 63.5% : Three star

Therefore, the odds to get "at least an X star" in a single roll are:

* 0.5% : At least a six star (duh)
* 6.5% : At least a five star
* 36.5% : At least a four star
* 100% : At least a three star (more duh)

...

Now, for multiple rolls. Let's find out the odds of getting N number of "five stars or greater" in a 10+1 roll. Really, it boils down to the same math involved in "getting heads N times total in 11 flips", just with a probability of heads that's not 50%.

* Probability of success (a five star or above): Ps = 6.5%
* Probability of failure (a four star or below): Pf = 100-6.5 = 93.5%

The probability of 11 failures - that is, 11 pulls and everything is four stars or below - is quite simple to find. After all, there's only one possible result.

* Probability of 11 failures = Pf^11 = 0.935^11 = 0.4774 = 47.74%

The probability of 1 success and 10 failures is only slightly trickier. We 1) find all possible ways we could hit 1 success/10 failure, 2) calculate the probability of each, and 3) sum them up. There are 11 ways (one for each of the positions), and each of those ways has identical odds (since they're independent), so it's not that tough.

* Probability of 1 success and 10 failures = 11*(Ps*(Pf^10)) = 11*(0.065*(0.935^10)) = 0.3651 = 36.51%

Going further up the chain gets more taxing to do by hand, as the number of permutations grows (well, going further towards the middle does; the far end is just as simple to calculate as the near one). But the same basic math still applies. And, thankfully, computers are damned good at doing simple math exceedingly fast.

Probability of getting exactly N shinies (five star or greater) in a 10+1 pull
--------------------------------------------------------------------
* 0 : 47.74498042254755603 %
* 1 : 36.51086738194813819 %
* 2 : 12.69094320762902939 %
* 3 : 2.64677425185846049 %
* 4 : 0.36800069811935815 %
* 5 : 0.03581611072605517 %
* 6 : 0.00248989005047442 %
* 7 : 0.00012363854337726 %
* 8 : 0.00000429759642755 %
* 9 : 0.00000009958779600 %
* 10 : 0.00000000138464315 %
* 11 : 0.00000000000875078 %

(And for anyone concerned, the sum of those numbers - not the shown numbers, the actual ones used in the underlying script's array = totals to "1.0000000000000004". So there's a tiny bit of precision error in there, past 15 decimal places or so. But that's still good enough for a few significant figures, even for the smallest probability above. Besides, even if the 11 success case was 100x larger, it's still really damned microscopic.)

...

You could derive other interesting numbers - for example, the total probability of getting 4 or greater shinies in a single 10+1 is actually slightly rarer (0.41%) than getting a single six star in a single pull (0.5%) - but meh.

[steele1743]

That was fking awesome. I love math too.

[Zandel]

Well I just had my 12.69% win with 2 golds from 1 10+1 pull. Madonna (new for me and now my 5th 5* skill activation girl!) and Nasturtium (A dupe but the 1st I have gotten of her so at least an extra equip slot).

[Bloodsport Bloom]

Congrats on both those golds and beating the 12.69% odds, Zandel. Madonna's waifu tier up there with Anthurium and dupes are always a welcome addition.

[Zandel]

Just to test I put 5 1.2xskill girls on one team... it's a 2x total but if you swap one with Cymbidium it becomes 3.6x round 1 and 1.8x after... so enough to kill anything in a few rounds tops.

[Myrdin]

Just to test I put 5 1.2xskill girls on one team... it's a 2x total but if you swap one with Cymbidium it becomes 3.6x round 1 and 1.8x after... so enough to kill anything in a few rounds tops.

Interesting.
Well at least reading through the last few posts I finally got an Idea how that buff stacks.
I always though it to be weird that "Oh 5. 1,2 6x the activate rat, so if my girl has 30% activation rate, times 6 I have a guaranteed 100% of her activating it), or at least thats what I used to think. Granted I considered it to be kinda wonky and over the top.
So the scaling is much reduced, 0,2 per girl to be precise.
Still a 30% skill rate, time 1,8/ / 2,0 is over the 50/50 range which makes it pretty solid. It requires a full skill act. team though. But certainly is solid.

[Zandel]

Interesting.
Well at least reading through the last few posts I finally got an Idea how that buff stacks.
I always though it to be weird that "Oh 5. 1,2 6x the activate rat, so if my girl has 30% activation rate, times 6 I have a guaranteed 100% of her activating it), or at least thats what I used to think. Granted I considered it to be kinda wonky and over the top.
So the scaling is much reduced, 0,2 per girl to be precise.
Still a 30% skill rate, time 1,8/ / 2,0 is over the 50/50 range which makes it pretty solid. It requires a full skill act. team though. But certainly is solid.

I have noticed that the % activation rate for skills is not really accurate. I mean they say 20-30% on average but those skills seem to activate more like 40-50% of the time in reality. I have watched over hundreds of activations and even tho it COULD be an RNG streak it still seems higher than expected. I have also notices that 1.2x activation (a 20% buff so from 20 - 24 or 30 - 36) seems to have a much larger effect than the numbers suggest.

I'm thinking that it's the RNG generator they are using, since computers cannot ever do anything 100% random i'm going to guess that the algorithm they are using is slightly weighted towards the low (or high not sure what skills use) end.

[Myrdin]

I have noticed that the % activation rate for skills is not really accurate. I mean they say 20-30% on average but those skills seem to activate more like 40-50% of the time in reality. I have watched over hundreds of activations and even tho it COULD be an RNG streak it still seems higher than expected. I have also notices that 1.2x activation (a 20% buff so from 20 - 24 or 30 - 36) seems to have a much larger effect than the numbers suggest.

I'm thinking that it's the RNG generator they are using, since computers cannot ever do anything 100% random i'm going to guess that the algorithm they are using is slightly weighted towards the low (or high not sure what skills use) end.

Hmm well the truth is, there must be some higher RnG involved.
On multiple occassions I have seen a skill activation team I have miss one or two turns without a single activation.
Now If I understand the scaling 4 girls with 1.2, should give you 1.8 buff, 5 girls should give you 2.0 correct ?
With 5 skill levels which for 5* is in the 30-34% range that if we multiply. gives us around 61% chance for activation.
That by itself is over the 50/50 range.
And yet many times you see the girls standing, smiling and bashing the enemies with basic attacks. RnG is RnG I suppose.

[Discoceris]

Ah, but avarages do exist, even in RNG. It just doesn't simply work additively, and often you need to make odd calculations to get the results you want. When you plot out all the possible resultsand the chance for them to happen, you get the well known Bell Curve (because it's shaped like a bell). Still, it remains RNG, and people (gamblers specifically) like to take their chances at getting something from the far right side of the curve, even though they have the same chance at ending up on the far left side, and that the peak of the bell curve is just the most common result, but that no guarantee is ever given that you'll actually manage even that result.

There's several problems with this logic:

(1) You're assuming that you know the outcome, and so can determine when (time)
(2) You're also assuming you know the outcomes of everyone else
(3) You're also assuming that you know when the end is for the entire history of this particular event (e.g., the life span of Nutaku's FKG)

This is why calculating odds is a useless endeavor. While Nutaku posts the supposed rates for draws, they have an exit clause in their EULA which suggests bugs, improper coding, errors in server operations, etc., may change those draw rates without prior notice. In a perfect world, sure, I'm guessing the statistical modeling could be helpful, but again, it is still largely worthless. As Dr. Tyson would say, random is random, and trying to predict it is a fool's errand.