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View Full Version : [EVENT 106] Turning the Tables! The Great Gamble on the Water (2/18/2019 to 3/4/2019)



AgentFakku
02-19-2019, 03:37 PM
https://i.imgur.com/Hzrakxu.jpg

missed out 2 days?

Swan Betting Race

I guess I post a link. No link found

Ladies

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/flowerknight/images/5/5e/Portrait_160013.png/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/222?cb=20190218094137https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/flowerknight/images/9/9c/Portrait_169603.png/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/222?cb=20190218094141https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/flowerknight/images/9/93/Portrait_114203.png/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/222?cb=20190218094135https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/flowerknight/images/7/74/Portrait_160017.png/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/222?cb=20190218094139

Volarmis
02-19-2019, 03:42 PM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/02/18/yA7.png

Green Bell - Makes solid predictions (double circle > circle > triangle).
Colchicum - Tends to pick out racers who won't do so good.
Nazuna - Sometimes predicts correctly, sometimes not.

The first race seems straightforward.
Green Bell predicts that x20 racer will win, followed by x10, then by x30.
Colchicum marked down x30 and x100 as the ones that won't do so hot, so x20 is still a good pick.
Nazuna predicts x50, then x20, then x30. Since her predictions can be true sometimes, x50 as a backup may be a good choice.

The voters seem to think alike, based on the bets so far.


RESULTS: x20, x50, x10, x30, x100

It seems Green Bell actually predicts the relative order of 3 random racers based on the results.

Volarmis
02-19-2019, 03:43 PM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/02/19/ydJ.png

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means a three place difference (or more if the wiki is to be trusted, but I'm not sure that's logically possible).
Lobelia - Puts a whip mark on the racers that will be in the lower places.
Nazuna - Sometimes predicts correctly, sometimes not.

According to Di Yu's marks the places will look something like this:
x100 - 2nd
x30 - 1st or 5th
x10 - 4th
x50 - 3rd or 5th
x20 - 1st or 3rd
Lobelia predicts that x10 and x50 will have low places, which checks out.
Nazuna marked x30, then x100, then x50 and she has a chance to be right this time around, taking into account the previous predictions.

All in all, I think x30 has the highest chance to win, followed by x20 as a backup.


RESULTS: x30, x100, x20, x10, x50

Leave it to Di Yu to get things right. :)

Myers
02-19-2019, 04:00 PM
Thank you for the analysis Volarmis :D. As for the new girls...

Eugh, that new rainbow looks like the youngest I've seen from this game. Straight up 4 year old, maybe younger lol...
The other two are great though, especially Angelica. Fairly large breasted angel with golden eyes - perfect to me. I'd roll gacha for her, but I wanna save my Flower Gems for a six star I may want really badly in the future.

AgentFakku
02-20-2019, 12:04 PM
can't remember who I betted on LOL
https://i.imgur.com/Enq7rOt.jpg
think I didn't bet on green haired chan

oh well


Thank you for the analysis Volarmis :D. As for the new girls...

I'd roll gacha for her, but I wanna save my Flower Gems for a six star I may want really badly in the future.

same, went all out to get Geraniumbooby twice

Volarmis
02-20-2019, 01:04 PM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/02/20/yd3.png

Violet Cress - Marks down the racers who are the most likely to take places 1 and 2.
Water Lily - Marks down the racers who's place and odds align.
Nazuna - Sometimes predicts correctly, sometimes not.

Seems to be another straightforward one.
Violet Cress says that x10 and x50 will both have a place in the top 2.
Water Lily says that x10 will take the 1st place and x30 will take the 3rd place.
Nazuna left her marks on x50, then x10, then x100 - she did chose x10 as one of the options but since she can be wrong, Water Lily's prediction is more credible.

I'd be surprised if anyone else than x10 wins this one. For those who are still unsure, bet also on x50 but I doubt that will be 1st place.


RESULTS: x10, x50, x30, x100, x20

Pretty much spot on.

Volarmis
02-21-2019, 03:03 PM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/02/21/yd9.png

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means a three place difference (or more if the wiki is to be trusted, but I'm not sure that's logically possible).
Violet Cress - Marks down the racers who are the most likely to take places 1 and 2.
Nazuna - Sometimes predicts correctly, sometimes not.

According to Di Yu, the final results will look like this:
x30 - 3rd
x20 - 1st (since 3rd is already taken)
x100 - 2nd
x50 - 5th (since x10 can only be in 4th)
x10 - 4th
Violet Cress confirms that, marking x20 and x100 to be in the top 2.
This time, Nazuna did not mark the predicted victor, so if someone is feeling unsure, the 2nd best pick is x100.

If no surprises happen, x20 should take the 1st place.


RESULTS: x20, x100, x30, x10, x50

Pretty much how Di Yu predicted.

AgentFakku
02-21-2019, 09:07 PM
cool did it

think i should save for better stuf

Volarmis
02-22-2019, 02:57 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/02/22/yde.png

Karin - Depending on the translation she either marks the top 3 places or she marks 3 racers out of the top 4.
Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers.
Nazuna - Sometimes predicts correctly, sometimes not.

This is the first one in this event where things don't look so easy.
Karin predicts that x10, x100 and x50 will be in the top 3 (or top 4).
Green Bell marks x10 to be above x20 and x30, but we still don't know the relative order to x50 and x100, which makes things complicated.
Nazuna marks x50, then x30, then x100. Since we don't know if Green Bell's top pick will take the 1st place, we'll need to take her predictions into account as well. Too bad she's not that reliable with them.

Looks like either x10 or x50 have the highest chance to win, though with Nazuna's predictions, x100 should be bet on as well, just in case.


RESULTS: x100, x10, x50, x20, x30

Yup, a great example of what happens when we leave it to Nazuna. Based on this however I noticed a few more rules to Nazuna's predictions, though only based on the races in this event, so nothing confirmed yet.

Volarmis
02-23-2019, 12:58 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/02/23/ywK.png

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Colchicum - Tends to pick out racers who won't do so good (won't be in the top 2).
Nazuna - Based on the observations of the current event's results: two out of the three racers she marks (no matter the mark) will be in the top 3 and the other will not.

A few things got clearer this time around about Di Yu and Nazuna's predictions, though we'll see if it's true based on this race's results.
Di Yu predicts like this:
x100 - 2nd, since x30 is 1st
x30 - 1st, since x10 is 5th
x50 - 3rd, since x10 is 5th
x10 - 5th, since x20 is 4th - here is where the previous understanding would be wrong
x20 - 4th
Colchicum marked x50 and x10, which agrees with Di Yu's prediction.
Nazuna marked x10, then x100, then x30. So far, this fits my observations about her predicting habits.

It's pretty safe to say that x30 will win. The only other one that has a chance should be x100.


RESULTS: x30, x100, x50, x20, x10

The results confirm the updated understanding of Di Yu and Nazuna's predicting habits.

AgentFakku
02-23-2019, 12:45 PM
https://i.imgur.com/0gsg3X5.jpg

hmm...

10char

Volarmis
02-24-2019, 12:44 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/02/24/ywj.png

Lobelia - Puts a whip mark on the racers that will be in the lower places.
Water Lily - Marks down the racers who's place and odds align.
Nazuna - Two out of the three racers she marks (no matter the mark) will be in the top 3 and the other will not.Lobelia marked x100 and x30, so neither of them will be 1st.
Water Lily marked x20, so this racer will take the 2nd place.
Nazuna marked x10, x100 and x50. x100 will probably be outside the top 3, as this racer was marked by Lobelia earlier. x10 was not marked by Water Lily, so there's a good chance x10 will be 3rd.

It seems x50 will win this one.
RESULTS: x50, x20, x10, x100, x30

It's possible that Lobelia will always mark the 2 last places based on the results up till now.

Raine
02-24-2019, 12:50 AM
Suiren not marking x10 led me to believe that it won't be matching its placement (1st), so I went with x50.

Volarmis
02-24-2019, 01:34 AM
Suiren not marking x10 led me to believe that it won't be matching its placement (1st), so I went with x50.

Yup, I totally missed that point. :D
Making corrections.

Unregistered
02-24-2019, 10:07 PM
Does the racer info page beneath the predictions say anything useful?

Volarmis
02-25-2019, 12:19 AM
Does the racer info page beneath the predictions say anything useful?

Last time I checked, that was only flavor text describing the racers.
Things like "It seems she's doing better this season" or "She's in great condition for today's race".
I haven't checked if it changed anyhow though.

Volarmis
02-25-2019, 09:13 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/02/25/ywF.png

Violet Cress - Marks down the racers who are the most likely to take places 1 and 2.
Lobelia - Puts a whip mark on the racers that will be in the lower places (possibly the two last places).
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.Voilet Cress marks x20 and x50 to be in the top 2.
Lobelia marks x30 and x100 to do badly, which doesn't really help us at all, since we already know the top 2.
Nazuna marked x50, x20 and x10. If Lobelia would always mark the last two places, this would cause an update of Nazuna's predicting habits.

x20 and x50 seem to be equally probable to win the next race.RESULTS: x20, x50, x10, x100, x30

It seems Nazuna's third mark doesn't necessarily mean that racer will be outside the top 3.
Additionally, so far Lobelia has always marked the last two racers.

maotd
02-25-2019, 10:39 AM
x50 won the last race. I guess x20 have more chance to be the winner here.

Volarmis
02-25-2019, 11:10 AM
I'm not sure two racers with the same odds can't win one after the other, so I don't think that influences the results.

maotd
02-25-2019, 11:44 AM
I'm not sure too but I don't remember it occured once during all the previous swan races.

AgentFakku
02-25-2019, 07:54 PM
https://i.imgur.com/Ji5XngP.jpg

think I miss something

Volarmis
02-26-2019, 12:24 AM
https://i.imgur.com/Ji5XngP.jpg

think I miss something

What do you mean?

Volarmis
02-26-2019, 01:59 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/02/26/ywA.png

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.Di Yu's prediction:
x100 - 3rd
x50 - 4th
x20 - 5th
x10 - 1st
x30 - 2nd, because x50 is 4th
Green Bell predicts x10 to be before x30 and them both before x20, which matches Di Yu's prediction.
Nazuna's mark on x10 and x30 matches her observed rules of prediction so far, x20 being the mark not in the top 3.

It's a pretty clear situation where x10 should win.RESULTS: x10, x30, x100, x50, x20

Another race where Di Yu says how it is.

Myrdin
02-26-2019, 02:34 AM
Just keep throwing 50 at every racer and you should be good :D

Volarmis
02-27-2019, 03:59 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/02/27/yw7.png

Water Lily - Marks down the racers who's place and odds align.
Colchicum - Picks out racers who will not be first.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.According to Water Lily, x100 will be 5th and x50 will be 4th. x10 won't be 1st.
Colchicum marked x30 and x10, Since these will take the 2nd and 3rd place, her voting predictions need to be amended.
Nazuna marked x30, x20 and x50. We know x30 will be 2nd or 3rd and we know x50 will be 4th, leaving x20 to win. So far her predicting habits check out.

By process of elimination, x20 will be the winner this time around.RESULTS: x20, x30, x10, x50, x100

Volarmis
02-28-2019, 01:32 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/02/28/yw8.png

Violet Cress - Marks down the racers who are the most likely to take places 1 and 2.
Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.Violet Cress marks x50 and x100 to be in the top 2.
Di Yu's predictions:
x20 - 4th
x30 - 5th, since this racer can't be in the top 2
x10 - 3rd
x50 - 1st
x100 - 2nd, since x50 is 1st
Nazuna marked x20, x10 and x50. According to the previous predictions, x10 and x50 are in the top 3, so the observation checks out so far.

x50 is the favorite to win this time.RESULTS: x50, x100, x10, x20, x30

Volarmis
03-01-2019, 04:11 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/03/01/ykF.png

Karin - She either marks the top 3 places (the previous case) or she marks 3 racers out of the top 4.
Lobelia - Puts a whip mark on the racers who will take the two last places.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.Karin and Lobelia's predictions are mutually exclusive - x100, x20 and x10 will be in the top 3, while x30 and x50 will be in the last two places.
Nazuna marked the same racers as Karin, so no help here.

x100, x20 and x10 all have the same chance to win this race. x50 won the previous one, so no rule of exclusion this time around.RESULTS: x100, x10, x20, x50, x30

This time Nazuna was pretty spot on.

Volarmis
03-02-2019, 01:11 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/03/02/yvh.png

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Water Lily - Marks down the racers who's place and odds align.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.According to Di Yu:
x50 - 3rd, since x100 is 5th
x10 - 2nd
x20 - 4th
x30 - 1st, since x100 is 5th
x100 - 5th
Water Lily marked x100 as 5th, which coincides with Di Yu's prediction. x10 will not be first.
Nazuna marked x10, x100 and x30. x30 and x10 are in the top 3, so it checks out.

It's pretty safe to say x30 will win.RESULTS: x30, x10, x50, x20, x100

AgentFakku
03-02-2019, 10:45 AM
Missed a few days coz I had Nutaku

Wait just 1 day?

edit


fuk,d idnt men to vote 300
https://i.imgur.com/OMlOpze.jpg
lpl don't need stam pt anymare

Volarmis
03-03-2019, 02:26 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/03/03/yGc.png

Violet Cress - Marks down the racers who are the most likely to take places 1 and 2.
Colchicum - Picks out racers who will not be first.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.Violet Cress marked x30 and x50 so one of them will win.
Colchicum marked x20 and x50, so it matches Violet Cress in that none of them will take the top.
Nazuna marked x10, x50 and x20, possibly making x50 a bit more probable to win over x30.

x50 and x30 should be taking the rest of our votes.RESULTS:x50, x30, <the rest>

The event page is gone, so I can't say what was the exact order.
Anywho, I find the swanboat races fun because they have a logic puzzle element to them and I hope there would be more events with elements like this. :D

AgentFakku
03-04-2019, 01:56 PM
I think I did da last one

https://i.imgur.com/Whe8g3Kl.jpg it was da pirate twoesome

I jump from 41K to 56K or something

didn't play too much

clean out ampy and equip

leftover went to LC first and then gold, I don't really need gold

Myrdin
03-05-2019, 01:46 AM
For LC I recommend running the LC maps whenever they are in discount. You get 4 LC minimum for the higher level ones. Plus of course if you didnt clear it before, you get bunch of extras for 3 starring the map.
About a month ago, I had like 1500 LC left. And then I starter running these > just 3* them, not even like grinding the same thing over and over. With all the extras for map completion I am sitting somewhere around 6500 right now. A good use of those stamina pots if you want those goodies from the LC shop.

AgentFakku
03-05-2019, 08:57 PM
For LC I recommend running the LC maps whenever they are in discount. You get 4 LC minimum for the higher level ones. Plus of course if you didnt clear it before, you get bunch of extras for 3 starring the map.
About a month ago, I had like 1500 LC left. And then I starter running these > just 3* them, not even like grinding the same thing over and over. With all the extras for map completion I am sitting somewhere around 6500 right now. A good use of those stamina pots if you want those goodies from the LC shop.

thanks I dont think I done those LC maps coz I usu died