[EVENT 113] Happy Mushroom Stew (5/27/2019 TO 6/10/2019)

[AgentFakku]

Banner

https://i.imgur.com/PYMp08m.jpg

New Ladies
https://i.imgur.com/Q8sWCsG.pnghttps://i.imgur.com/r1Y538o.pnghttps://i.imgur.com/rK7u0Jd.pnghttps://i.imgur.com/QU4EK56.png

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/05/27/y9j.png

Dusty Miller - Sharp concerning the situation of the 2nd and 3rd most popular racers (x20, x30). I'm not sure at this point if this means she correctly predicts them being 2nd and 3rd or their place overall.
Kale - Somehow, almost always predicts wrong.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.I can't remember how Dusty Miller's predictions worked from the previous events, which means x30 will be either 3rd or 1st as far as I can tell.
Kale's predictions eliminate x20, x10 and x100 from winning, though I'm not sure how unreliable they are.
Nazuna marked x30, x10 and x50. Considering the other predictions, x30 and x50 will be in the top 3, making x50 another possibility for 1st.
It seems that checks out with the predictions of other players at the moment.RESULTS: x30, x50, x10, x100, x20

Okay, this means Dusty Miller's predictions for x20 and x30 mean their overall place.
All of Kale's marks are below the top 2, so that's also something to take note of.

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/05/28/y9w.png

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Peach - Marks all the racers from odds x20-x100, who'll end up in a higher place than their odds say.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.According to Di Yu:
x100 - 5th
x50 - 4th
x20 - 1st, since x10 is 3rd
x30 - 2nd, since x50 is 4th
x10 - 3rd
Peach marked everyone she could, signaling they will take places higher than their odds. It checks out with Di Yu's predictions.
Nazuna marked x50, x20 and x30. Since x20 and x30 are the top 2, it checks out.RESULTS: x20, x30, x10, x50, x100

Exactly as Di Yu predicted and Peach confirmed.

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/05/29/y9b.png

Dusty Miller - Sharp predictions concerning the situation of the 2nd and 3rd most popular racers (x20, x30). I assume the type of mark corresponds to the place, double circle meaning the 1st place.
Water Lily - Marks all the racers who will take the same place their odds suggest.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.If I understand Dusty Miller's predictions right, she's saying that x20 will take the 3rd place and x30 will take the second. I can't be sure just yet if that's the case though.
Water Lily only marked x100. This means that every racer other than x100 will take a different place then their odds suggest - x100 will still be 5th, x10 will not be first, etc. This agrees with Dusty Miller's prediction, since x20 and x30 would take different places.
Nazuna marked x10, x20 and x30. Since x20 and x30 are the top 3, it checks out.

It seems x50 will win. As a backup, x30 can be bet on as well.RESULTS: x50, x30, x20, x10, x100

This confirms Dusty Miller's predicting style.

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/05/30/y93.png

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Physostegia - Marks the racers that will enter the higher ranks. I assume this means racers like x50 or x100 ending up in a high place.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.Once again, Di Yu says it all:
x100 - 4th
x30 - 3rd
x50 - 2nd
x20 - 5th
x10 - 1st
Physostegia seems to be saying that out of the racers with the biggest multipliers only x50 will end up in a high place. This checks out, since x50 should be 2nd and x100 4th according to Di Yu.
Nazuna marked only x10. It's a bit unexpected, since she usually marks 3 racers. Maybe her predictions prioritize the winner in such cases?RESULTS: x10, x50, x30, x100, x20

Just as Di Yu predicted.

[AgentFakku]

I like mushroom umbrella

https://i.imgur.com/FQnJdr0.png

miss rounds

https://i.imgur.com/wpSWBHj.png

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/05/31/y96.png

Hyacinth - Reliable predictions for racers with the highest odds.
Kale - Somehow, almost always predicts wrong.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.Ok, this one's a bit tricky.
If Hyacinth's predictions work similar to Dusty Miller's, she would be predicting that x50 wins, followed by x100.
Kale on the other hand eliminates x50, x20 and x10 as winners, so that contradicts the previous prediction.
Nazuna marked x100, x20 and x30. Since x100 and x30 are not marked by Kale and x100 is marked by Hyacinth too, her prediction seems consistent. It doesn't help with deciding which of the previous predictions is correct though.
In the end it depends on which prediction is more trustworthy. If Hyacinth's, then x50 might win. If Kale's, then probably x30 since presumably x100 was marked by Hyacinth to get a lower score than x50. x100 is still a possibility though.
Only the results can show what are their predicting habits truthfully.RESULTS: x100, x30, x50, x10, x20

It seems Kale can more defintely tell which racers will take the last 3 places.
By these results, I guess I'm still misunderstanding Hyacinth's predicting habits.

[Unregistered]

Hyacinth's predictions are reliable for the high odds racers (10x and 20x). For lower odds, she's not to be trusted.

[FactChecking]

Hyacinth's predictions are reliable for the high odds racers (10x and 20x). For lower odds, she's not to be trusted.

???

High odds are 100x and 50x.

Look up Alium (who targets high odds to place 1st/2nd) and her forecasts from event 89. She only picked the said odds.
Day 3: x50 - 1st
Day 7: x100 - 2nd
Day 8: x50 - 1st
Final: x100 - 1st

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/06/01/y61.png

Peach - Marks all the racers from odds x20-x100, who'll end up in a higher place than their odds say.
Dusty Miller - Sharp predictions concerning the situation of the 2nd and 3rd most popular racers (x20, x30).
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.This one seems pretty straightforward.
Peach predicts that x20 will take a higher place then the odds suggest, so that should be the winner.
Dusty Miller confirms that with a double circle on x20.
Nazuna marked x10, x20 and x30. It doesn't relly matter much at this point, but it suggests that either x10 or x30 may be outside of the top 3 in the end.RESULTS: x20, x10, x50, x30, x100

About those high/low odds - yeah, I was thinking about naming it more intuitively, but this is how the game understands it:
x50, x100 - high odds
x10, x20 - low odds

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/06/02/ylr.png

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Hyacinth - Reliable predictions for racers with the highest odds.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.According to Di Yu:
x100 - 2nd
x30 - 3rd
x50 - 1st
x20 - 4th
x10 - 5th
This time, Hyacinth's prediction matches that, saying x50 will be first, then x100.
I'll write down Nazuna's predictions from now on if they actually help with deciding the winner, as they rarely do. This time it seems pretty straightforward.RESULTS: x50, x100, x30, x20, x10

[AgentFakku]

https://i.imgur.com/mzbgDnE.png

shit im safe
aint miss special shit

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/06/03/ylb.png

Water Lily - Marks all the racers who will take the same place their odds suggest.
Kale - Somehow, almost always predicts wrong.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.Pretty easy one this time as well.
Water Lily marked x10, x20 and x30, making them 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Kale marks x30 and the rest as being in the end.RESULTS: x10, x20, x30, x100, x50

[Volarmis]

https://i.ibb.co/hXsBrK6/Przechwytywanie.png

Physostegia - Marks the racers who will take high places.
Dusty Miller - Sharp predictions concerning the situation of the 2nd and 3rd most popular racers (x20, x30).
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.Physostegia predicts x30 will take a high place.
Dusty Miller agrees, marking x30 with a double circle. This would mean x30 will be first, taking account her previous predictions this event.RESULTS: x30, x10, x50, x100, x20

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/06/05/yoP.png

Peach - Marks all the racers from odds x20-x100, who'll end up in a higher place than their odds say.
Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.According to Di Yu:
x20 - 1st, since x100 is 3rd
x10 - 4th, since x30 is 5th
x100 - 3rd
x30 - 5th, because x20 is 1st
x50 - 2nd
Peach confirms the winner, leaving her mark on x20.RESULTS: x20, x50, x100, x10, x30

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/06/06/yoD.png

Hyacinth - Reliable predictions for racers with the highest odds.
Water Lily - Marks all the racers who will take the same place their odds suggest.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.Not a lot of information here.
Hyacinth predicts x50 will take a higher place than x100, presumably 1st.
Water Lily eliminates x20 (as 2nd) and x10 from winning.
EDIT: Of course, considering Hyacinth it may be the other way around, so both of her marks have a chance to win.
x30 will not win because if so, Nazuna's prediction would be off, with only one of her marks in the top 3.
Thanks for pointing it out. :)RESULTS: x50, x20, x10, x100, x30

It seems the results suggest that Hyacinth's predictions hit the mark unless something directly contradicts them.

[Unregistered]

The Water Lily/Nazuna combo should eliminate 30 because Nazuna would only have one of the top three if it won. Day 5 showed that Hyacinth isn't reliable so bet on both 50 and 100.


Also, Day 2 & 6 had Peach's hearts on boats whose placements matched their odds.

[Volarmis]

The Water Lily/Nazuna combo should eliminate 30 because Nazuna would only have one of the top three if it won. Day 5 showed that Hyacinth isn't reliable so bet on both 50 and 100.


Also, Day 2 & 6 had Peach's hearts on boats whose placements matched their odds.

Thanks for noticing the Water Lily + Nazuna combination, I was too focused on who would win rather than who doesn't have a chance to win.
I'll fix it in the predictions.

True, Hyacinth's predictions aren't really reliable and you can also mark her other racer just ot be sure. Maybe the mark she gives doesn't suggest the order or maybe she's unreliable only if something contradicts her, I can't say right now.

Thanks for pointing out the thing about Peach's predictions. I forgot the specific Japanese word used in her description doesn't necessarily mean "more than", but may also mean "no less than". Looking back at the results it becomes obvious. :)

[Unregistered]

Seeing as Hyacinth has bet 50, 100 every time, maybe her shtick is showing up only when one of those two will win.

[AgentFakku]

https://i.imgur.com/kWZERwT.png

too tired to bet all da way LOL

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/06/07/yoN.png

Kale - Somehow, almost always predicts wrong.
Dusty Miller - Sharp predictions concerning the situation of the 2nd and 3rd most popular racers (x20, x30).
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.Kale predicts x50, x100 and x10 to take the last three places.
Dusty Miller marks the remaining racers, making them take the top 2. x20 got the double circle, so that's possibly our winner.RESULTS: x20, x30, x50, x10, x100

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/06/08/yoz.png

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Peach - Marks all the racers from odds x20-x100, who'll end up in a higher place than their odds say.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.According to Di Yu:
x100 - 3rd
x50 - 4th
x10 - 5th, since x50 is 4th
x30 - 1st
x20 - 2nd
Peach's prediction checks out too, as x10 takes 5th and everyone else goes at least 1 place up.RESULTS: x30, x20, x100, x50, x10

[Volarmis]

https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/06/09/yod.png

Hyacinth - Reliable predictions for racers with the highest odds.
Physostegia - Marks the racers who will take high places.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.According to my current understanding, Hyacinth is predicting x100 to take the top spot. Since nothing contradicts her, that may be the case.
Physostegia marked x10, making this racer end up in a high place, but not necessarily in 1st, as the previous races proved.
On a sidenote, x50 or x30 will probably be in the top 3, since Nazuna did not mark x100.WINNER: x100
(I didn't write down the results on time)

[AgentFakku]

missed da last rounds shit

https://i.imgur.com/H2sD6vql.png