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View Full Version : [EVENT 119] Everlasting Summer's Marine Cruise (8/19/2019 to 9/2/2019)



Volarmis
08-21-2019, 12:46 AM
http://dugrqaqinbtcq.cloudfront.net/media/63f042f0-7d84-47e3-9b33-a25efea1b00a.jpg
https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/flowerknight/images/9/9e/Portrait_131933.png/revision/latest?cb=20190819082112https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/flowerknight/images/c/cf/Portrait_144807.png/revision/latest?cb=20190819082120https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/flowerknight/images/f/f3/Portrait_132805.png/revision/latest?cb=20190819082116https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/flowerknight/images/6/62/Portrait_128001.png/revision/latest?cb=20190819082108

I'll do the honors this time, since I need a place to post the race predictions. :p

Volarmis
08-21-2019, 12:47 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/20/DCv.png

Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers
Plum - If her prediction misses this time, she'll be correct the next time she predicts
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3According to Green Bell, x20 will be above x30 and x10 in the final results, making this racer a probable winner.
Plum's interesting new mechanic doesn't make the prediction easier, though it may help out next time.
Interposing Nazuna's prediction on Green Bell's, we can say that x10 will be outside of the top 3, so x20 and x100 should be in it.

A bit uncertain for the first race, but any of x20, x50 or x100 may win.RESULTS: x20, x50, x30, x100, x10

And with this, we need to update Nazuna's predicting habits as x10 and x100 took the last two places. Is it really random? I can't update it to "at least one of her predictions will be in the top 3", since that's obvious with her marking 3 racers each time.
Since Plum's prediction was off mark, the next time she appears she should have the deciding vote.

Volarmis
08-21-2019, 12:51 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/20/DCG.png

Iris - Marks down the racers whose place will be the same or better than their odds suggest
Masdevallia - Marks down the racers who will perform poorly (possibly the last two places)
Nazuna - Predicts randomly.Since Iris marked only x30 (assuming I'm not lost in translation again), it means this racer is the only one to take the same or higher place than the odds say. Since x10 is not marked by her, it means that racer will not be 1st, making x30 the most probable winner.
Masdevallia marked x50 and x100, so these racers will probably be last if her mechanic really points that out.
I don't know what to do with Nazuna's predictions from now on, since there's probably no rule to them anymore.RESULTS: x30, x20, x10, x50, x100

Everything seems to be as predicted.
x30 in first as Iris said, x50 and x100 in last as Masdevallia said.
Nazuna did predict the winner, but I can't see her other marks following any rules right now.

Volarmis
08-21-2019, 12:58 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/21/DC6.png

Streptocarpus - Predicts correctly in odd-numbered races
Snowdrop - "Targets high odds racers a lot, but has high faith in low Odds racers" (we'll need to wait and see what this means)
Nazuna - Predicts randomlySince it's an odd-numbered race, Streptocarpus should have the deciding vote, making x30 the winner.
I'm not sure what Snowdrop's predictions are about just yet, but x10 might also have a chance to become the winner.RESULTS: x10, x30, x20, x50, x100

It seems Streptocarpus's predictions will be a riddle for now - she didn't get the correct overall or the relative order of the racers right.
As for Snowdrop - maybe she has high accuracy of her predictions if she targets low odds racers? Maybe additionally her predictions have a higher priority, which would explain a bit Streptocarpus's predictions.

Volarmis
08-22-2019, 12:51 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/22/DCl.png

Snapdragon - Predicts correctly in even-numbered races
Plum - If her prediction misses this time, she'll be correct the next time she predicts
Nazuna - Predicts randomlySnadragon predicts x50 to come out on top of her 3 marked racers.
As Plum was wrong the last time she predicted, this time x50 should win.RESULTS: x50, x100, x20, x30, x10

Snapdragon actually correctly predicted the top 3.
Plum's mark hit, as expected.

Unregistered
08-22-2019, 02:17 AM
It seems Streptocarpus's predictions will be a riddle for now - she didn't get the correct overall or the relative order of the racers right.


Part of me thinks Streptocarpus has been consistently getting the winner with her second choice/single circle pick.

Volarmis
08-22-2019, 02:40 AM
Part of me thinks Streptocarpus has been consistently getting the winner with her second choice/single circle pick.

That may be so, though I haven't looked into her previous predictions.
It should come up during this event the next time she appears.

Volarmis
08-23-2019, 02:35 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/23/DC7.png

Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers
Masdevallia - Marks down the racers who will perform the worst
Nazuna - Predicts randomlyGreen Bell predicts x20 to be higher than x10 and x30, possibly in first place.
Masdevallia also marked x10 and x30, giving us no help here.
Maybe Nazuna's predictions are helpful in these situations? We'll have to see.
So far, it seems x100, x50 and x20 all have an equal chance to win.RESULTS: x100, x50, x20, x10, x30

About as chaotic as predicted.
I can't see Nazuna's predictions helping in this situation for now.

Volarmis
08-24-2019, 01:47 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/24/DCB.png

Iris - Marks down the racers whose place will be the same or better than their odds suggest
Snapdragon - Predicts correctly in even-numbered races
Nazuna - Predicts randomlyIris marked only x50 and x100, making one of them the winner.
Snapdragon marked x20, then x100 and then x50. Since it already collides with Iris's prediction, it may be similar to Streptocarpus's case and the single circle wins.
I'd bet on both x50 and x100 just in case.RESULTS: x50, x20, x100, x10, x30

Interestingly enough, x20 made it to the 2nd place and was not marked by Iris. This would mean she marks only those who'll do better than their odds.
So far it seems Snapdragon's and Streptocarpus's gimmick is that they correctly mark the top 3 in a random order in their respective races.

Myers
08-24-2019, 11:10 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/24/DCB.png

Iris - Marks down the racers whose place will be the same or better than their odds suggest
Snapdragon - Predicts correctly in even-numbered races
Nazuna - Predicts randomlyIris marked only x50 and x100, making one of them the winner.
Snapdragon marked x20, then x100 and then x50. Since it already collides with Iris's prediction, it may be similar to Streptocarpus's case and the single circle wins.
I'd bet on both x50 and x100 just in case.

Would be very surprised if x100 won, considering they just won yesterday.

Tomitain
08-24-2019, 02:30 PM
In today's episode of Everlasting Summer's Marine Cruise, Ivy finally succeeds in a summoning ritual:

12807

I get the feeling she doesn't quite consider that a success though.

Volarmis
08-25-2019, 01:35 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/25/DHx.png

Plum - If her prediction misses this time, she'll be correct the next time she predicts
Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers
Nazuna - Predicts randomlyAccording to Green Bell, out of x10, x20 and x30 only the last one has the chance to win.
Plum singled out x100 this time around which is to keep in mind for the future.
Nothing more to help us here, so we have 3 potential winners.RESULTS: x30, x10, x20, x100, x50

Green Bell got the top 3 correctly this time.
Plum missed her mark, so next time she'll be more accurate.

Volarmis
08-25-2019, 11:51 PM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/26/DHJ.png

Masdevallia - Marks down the racers who will perform the worst
Snowdrop - Predicts accurately for low odds racers (temp)
Nazuna - Predicts randomlyMasdevallia marked x100 and x30, eliminating them from the winning position.
Snowdrop marked x10, so considering the previous race she predicted in, that racer should be the winner this time.RESULTS: x10, x20, x50, x30, x100

It seems Snowdrop's predictions are to be trusted.

Volarmis
08-26-2019, 11:49 PM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/27/DHN.png

Iris - Marks down the racers whose place will be better than their odds suggest
Streptocarpus - Marks down the top 3 in a random order in odd-numbered races
Nazuna - Predicts randomlyIris marked x20, though this time she used an empty circle, which could mean something different.
Streptocarpus predicts that x10, x20, x30 will be in the top 3, according to our current understanding of her habits.
x20 seems to be the favorite for the winner, though x10 may be a good backup as it was noticed that Streptocarpus's circle seems to predict the winner too.RESULTS: x20, x10, x30, x50, x100

Pretty much according to our understanding.

Volarmis
08-27-2019, 11:57 PM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/28/DHA.png

Snapdragon - Marks down the top 3 in a random order in even-numbered races
Plum - If her prediction misses this time, she'll be correct the next time she predicts
Nazuna - Predicts randomlySnapdragon predicts x20, x50 and x30 to be in the top 3.
Since Plum was wrong the last time she appeared, the winner this time should be x20.RESULTS: x20, x50, x30, x100, x10

No surprises here.

Volarmis
08-28-2019, 11:21 PM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/29/DHY.png

Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers
Masdevallia - Marks down the racers who will perform the worst
Nazuna - Predicts randomlyGreen Bell predicts x10 to finish before x30 and x20, potentially first.
Masdevallia marked x20 and x100. If she didn't mark any of Green Bell's racers, x10 would have won for sure.
That leaves the unmarked x50 with a probability to win as well.RESULTS: x50, x10, x30, x20, x100

Everything as predicted.

Volarmis
08-30-2019, 10:59 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/30/DHZ.png

Plum - If her prediction misses this time, she'll be correct the next time she predicts
Iris - Marks down the racers whose place will be better than their odds suggest
Nazuna - Predicts randomlyPlum went for x10.
Iris marked x100 and x50, while also not marking x10, which means that any one of these 3 racers will win.RESULTS: x50, x100, x10, x20, x30

Results are as expected.
Plum missed her mark, so next time she decides.

maotd
08-30-2019, 11:25 AM
Plum was right last time, her prediction should fail this time right?

kuresuta
08-30-2019, 01:33 PM
Does it work the other way around as well, though?

Volarmis
08-30-2019, 01:49 PM
It doesn't. She has a clean state right now as far as I understand.

Unregistered
08-30-2019, 08:15 PM
Winning with the 10x and trading pennants for life crystals or gold is no better than trading the anchors for them directly. Makes it pointless to bet on a chance of 10 winning.

Volarmis
08-30-2019, 11:44 PM
Unless you're aiming to clear out the stock for both. :p

Volarmis
08-30-2019, 11:59 PM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/08/31/DHn.png

Streptocarpus - Marks down the top 3 in a random order in odd-numbered races
Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers
Nazuna - Predicts randomlyAccording to Streptocarpus, x100, x30 and x50 will take the top 3.
Green Bell marked x30 to be above x20 and x10.
These predictions are pretty much mutually exclusive, so any of Streptocarpus's predictions may win.RESULTS: x30, x100, x50, x10, x20

Nothing unexpected here.

maotd
08-31-2019, 01:25 AM
I don't really understand something on this one.
Streptocarpus said: x100, x50 and x30 are in the top 3
Green Bell said: x30 is above x20 and above x10

Why x30 should be the winner? If we got this result:
x100 & x50: 1st and 2nd
x30: 3rd
x20: 4th
x10: 5th

x100, x50 & x30 are in the top 3 and x30 is above x20 & x10. But x30 is not the winner. Or did I miss some important information here?

Volarmis
08-31-2019, 03:29 AM
Hmm, ok you're right.
Early morning thought processes failed me. :p
I'll make the corrections.

Volarmis
09-01-2019, 12:27 AM
https://i.harem-battle.club/images/2019/09/01/DK3.png

Masdevallia - Marks down the racers who will perform the worst
Plum - If her prediction misses this time, she'll be correct the next time she predicts
Nazuna - Predicts randomlyMasdevallia marked x50 and x10 to take the last two places.
Since Plum was wrong the last time around, x100 should be this race's winner.RESULTS: x100, x10, x20, x30, x50

The winner is as expected, but it seems Masdevallia's predicting habits are a bit different.

AgentFakku
09-02-2019, 04:05 PM
first time I miss an event on DMM LOL

was gone MIA too long