Thread: Fake Lay

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Sorry, but neither me, nor DShanks assumed anything, it was just a calculation based on some info. If info is incorrect then calculation would be incorrect too.


ThanatosX only said that Santa doubles his stats after every win. Dshanks said that based on this 15th level will have 100M stats. If someone says to you that his monthly earnings are $1,000 you won't be stupid if you calculate that this person's yearly earnings are $12,000. That's just common logic and math and not an assumption. If info from ThanatosX is correct, then calculation based on this info is correct and results of those calculations are correct, if info is incorrect then calculation would still be correct just based on wrong info, so will give incorrect results. If you are saying that ThanatosX' info is correct but DShanks results are wrong, then you are logically contradicting yourself.

Sorry, but I don't see this. Do you know much cash is required to reach the final girl by now? How much cash is required to upgrade her to 5M stats? The required spending are hidden in this game compared to Marvel. I played MPQ game without paying anything and was able to get every character. A little later than whales, that would get them right after release, but still, everything there was accessible for free, you just needed to play the game. Here I can't imagine yet how long it will take to reach final girl. But skill requirements already are really high - level 34->35 skill requires 8 days, last girl requires level 49 skill and each increase almost doubles the requirement. So 14 levels means 8000x8 days? I will surely need a lot of multipliers.

What exactly this game showed that make you believe that developers can't do that? I see a large wall after completing Pantress. I see that they made cost for time warp increase after you buy some - that's usually a sign of bad marketing, the more you buy, the more cash you need to buy next one and you are already invested in a game, so you have to spend that. I see >$50 price for 1000 gems. I see a girl being sold for >$50 and you can't get her just by playing. You can't even reach all gifts by playing in a reasonable time. So there are a lot of things that show that devs intend to have a lot of content in this game restricted to whales.

I provided some evidence that shows that developers do restrict things to whales, so common sense would say that discussed situation is possible. If some things are restricted from ftp players, then we can safely assume that some things will be restricted from players who pay up to $10 only, some things will be restricted from players who pay up to $100 only, etc. It is a first event like this so devs can't estimate yet how much largest whale can spend, so they may make requirements up to $10,000 just in case. Second event will have better values because there would be a basis to do estimation already.


Ok, I didn't know that Mistlehoe would appear on leaderboard as I thought that it was for challenge only, so event girl would be excluded from it. This means that no one has a girl with higher than 5M stats yet, I agree. But do we know if whales actually finished the event already or did they just stop spending?

What data are you talking about? There was no data at all, it was just a phrase "Santa doubles his stats each time you win.". That's all. Unless you know more story before that phrase. If it was something like "Based on first 3 battles Santa doubles his stats each time you win" I would agree with you, but there was no such thing. Well, actually later ThanatosX did mention that he made an estimate based on 4/5 outfits from free training so now we know that this theory is correct for first five levels, but have no proof that it is correct after that. But we didn't know this in few days when it was just posted.

He didn't. He made a calculation, not an assumption.

I am currently seeing requirements for level 5 they do show that first 5 levels follow this theory. Also I agree with ThanatosX that it actually does not matter how stats behave after level 5 as they are not reachable for free to play players anyway and I am also playing as ftp.

Just in case you still miss it, I'll repeat my position: I don't blindly believe that discussed theory (Santa doubling his stats each level) is correct for later levels. I can't believe it until we have proof, for example, whales posting all stats on a wiki or just info that they already finished the event or something. But I also don't see that it is not possible that this theory is true, a lot of things that we see now show that it is possible. And no matter if theory is true or not this does not make DShanks calculations incorrect or stupid, they were based on this theory and only mean that if theory is true, then results of those calculations are also true. If it happens that theory is wrong, then calculations will still be correct, but results will be wrong because they were based on wrong theory. So there is no reason to blame a person who did calculations for what he did, you can just say that you don't agree with the theory and think that results are incorrect and that's enough. No one will argue with you based on that.

He assumed one thing, that everything would follow the same pattern despite proof of the opposite already existing. That is why he calculated it the way he did. Monthly earnings are usually consistent and there is a history of it being that way, especially with how employment contracts usually work. The stat growth for the event is in a very different context. You can not apply a calculation to determine any unknown value without making an assumption first. Thanatos can provide correct info while the calculations are wrong because of the mistaken assumption that it will still follow that pattern after the end of the provided data.

You can max out your speed, which is all you need to complete all girls in a reasonable amount of time, with just 35$ worth in gems. I know this, because I did just that. Already earned back most of the gems I used too, seeing how often the game gives them out for free. You can even get enough free gems on a regular basis from events and achievements to get max speed without spending anything. I have access to all girls and currently have 15 million total speed, and only spent that initial 35$. Bringing a girl to 5 million? That is free, if you are patient. I'm at 1.5 million for my Indira, and I haven't spent money on upgrading her. Thanks to the holiday outfit I will be getting ~100k per day. Also if you want to know, getting a girl to 5 million instantly is just 100$, but there isn't any reason to do that other than showing off (it doesn't actually help you).

The reasons the game has shown that it wouldn't be that bad are simple; the costs are very low, there are a lot of free gems that cover most of what you need and there isn't a major advantage to spending more. You get the speed maxed out, and you're don't need more investments. Some content is restricted to paying players, but nothing has had an absurd price. The skills also don't "almost double the requirements every level", they only have major increases every 8-9 levels. I can know, I've gone all the way up to 50 on every skill. It also isn't the first event, it's the second, they even made participation more accessible rather than less.

We also know that whales did finish the event already, after all, the event gives fame and there's multiple people with the same amount of fame as ashes, who shared all the outfits and is known to have completed it. Each of those people completed the event. We could already see a whale with sub-600k stats on his dipfroat on the leaderboards at the time Thanatos posted his message, with the same amount of fame as Ashes and thus we could know that he completed it.

Thanatos and DShanks are both on the discord, and the information they both used was posted there first. The exact stats for the first 5 levels were posted there. Also you can easily beat up to 10 levels as f2p, assuming you are consistently training and don't spend too many attempts on regular challenges, because you always have a chance at winning. If your stamina is high enough, the bonus it gives you will let you beat all 15, without even going over 100k stats. Win chance (base) is estimated at 1 + (your stamina / 1000 -1) - (enemy stamina - your stamina) / 500 = chance (%), and you can't go below this chance or 1% no matter what the other stats are.

DShanks made an assumption in order to decide on making that calculation. Despite there being proof of the contrary, he assumed that the doubling trend would continue throughout all of it. If he didn't assume that was the case, he wouldn't have made that calculation. There has been proof of it not being the case for as long as the first message complaining about it came out. The assumption was stupid because he could already see for himself that it was not the case. You keep saying there is no proof of it not being the case, but the proof is visible to anyone who bothers looking and it's been there since before DShanks even posted.

I do a try more in the event and finaly win first battle at santa; second battle he double the stats. But i am fine now have a clothes for pantress.

I have access to all girls and currently have 15 million total speed, and only spent that initial 35$.

So haw far are you in event?

The skills also don't "almost double the requirements every level", they only have major increases every 8-9 levels.

As I can see for me, level 32 required 1 day, level 33 required 3 days, level 34 requires 7 days, not sure how much will be required later, maybe it will slow down.

It also isn't the first event, it's the second, they even made participation more accessible rather than less.

It is the first event with such model. Where you have to fight fixed stat enemies, not random people. What do you mean by participation being more accessible - I got 7 rewards in 1st event, I got 4 and maybe will get 5th one in current one. So if participation is reward then it is less accessible, not more. I do like that they allowed people to get equipment for higher tier girls that are not unlocked yet.

We also know that whales did finish the event already, after all, the event gives fame and there's multiple people with the same amount of fame as ashes, who shared all the outfits and is known to have completed it. Each of those people completed the event. We could already see a whale with sub-600k stats on his dipfroat on the leaderboards at the time Thanatos posted his message, with the same amount of fame as Ashes and thus we could know that he completed it.

Sorry, I don't follow logic here. How do we know that Ashes completed the event? If it was discussed on discord don't assume that it is a common knowledge as not everyone is there. How a whale with sub-600k stats on dipfroat (the girl that can be bought for gems) show us anything about event? Can she participate in event and fight herself or is she added as a normal girl, and then I don't see how she is relevant to event. I do get the idea about looking at fame. Each challenge rewarded 500 fame at max level, so those that are at the top did complete same amount of levels in event. So if Ashes completed it, then everyone else with same score did too. But still don't see where do we know that he did complete it. So "we" don't know that whales finished the event already, this means it is not common knowledge.

Win chance (base) is estimated at 1 + (your stamina / 1000 -1) - (enemy stamina - your stamina) / 500 = chance (%), and you can't go below this chance or 1% no matter what the other stats are.

Where did you get this formula?

There has been proof of it not being the case for as long as the first message complaining about it came out. The assumption was stupid because he could already see for himself that it was not the case. You keep saying there is no proof of it not being the case, but the proof is visible to anyone who bothers looking and it's been there since before DShanks even posted.

There was no accessible proof. All proof that you provided required some hidden knowledge that is not visible if you follow this thread and certainly not if you look at one post and have an experience of ftp player. You can't estimate how much $ you need to invest before you start investing or someone shares his values. Now you provided that value and we know it ($35 to get unlock all girls except special event girl). You can't know that estimate was made based on first few girls (you needed to access separate medium - discord to do that). And even if theory is wrong right away, for example someone can say now "each level tripples Santa's stats" and we already know that it is an incorrect theory, then someone else saying "then last level will require 30B" would not make his calculations incorrect or stupid.

Anyway if a lot of people (I see 12 with 4k fame on leaderboards) completed the event, I am sure there would be some info about required stats for final level already. Why is not it around yet? Can anyone care to share?

Also if that formula you provided about chance to win depending on Stamina is correct then whales would not need event girl with 100M stats. The minimum chance to win with 4k stamina would be 5% and then they can just retry event battle with base untrained girl for 20 times on average for each win. Resetting the timer for battle costs 1 gem(?, I am not sure about this, I have 14 minutes left and it shows 1 gem cost, don't know how much it would be for 20 minute reset), so finishing event even with untrained girl and Santa's final stats at 100M range would cost only 300 gems on average if you follow this tactics. So even based on proof you provided we can't see that theory that is being discussed is wrong.

At least you can get the present for girl you have not unlocked. Better than halloween event.

What I would want to know, if the elves are usable after the event in any way. Probably not. After all, the sale offer is just a bonus to the 800 and 6500 Diamond buy option.

And santa double only up to 100k. After that ~125k and then 157k.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

So haw far are you in event?

As I can see for me, level 32 required 1 day, level 33 required 3 days, level 34 requires 7 days, not sure how much will be required later, maybe it will slow down.

It is the first event with such model. Where you have to fight fixed stat enemies, not random people. What do you mean by participation being more accessible - I got 7 rewards in 1st event, I got 4 and maybe will get 5th one in current one. So if participation is reward then it is less accessible, not more. I do like that they allowed people to get equipment for higher tier girls that are not unlocked yet.

Sorry, I don't follow logic here. How do we know that Ashes completed the event? If it was discussed on discord don't assume that it is a common knowledge as not everyone is there. How a whale with sub-600k stats on dipfroat (the girl that can be bought for gems) show us anything about event? Can she participate in event and fight herself or is she added as a normal girl, and then I don't see how she is relevant to event. I do get the idea about looking at fame. Each challenge rewarded 500 fame at max level, so those that are at the top did complete same amount of levels in event. So if Ashes completed it, then everyone else with same score did too. But still don't see where do we know that he did complete it. So "we" don't know that whales finished the event already, this means it is not common knowledge.

Where did you get this formula?

There was no accessible proof. All proof that you provided required some hidden knowledge that is not visible if you follow this thread and certainly not if you look at one post and have an experience of ftp player. You can't estimate how much $ you need to invest before you start investing or someone shares his values. Now you provided that value and we know it ($35 to get unlock all girls except special event girl). You can't know that estimate was made based on first few girls (you needed to access separate medium - discord to do that). And even if theory is wrong right away, for example someone can say now "each level tripples Santa's stats" and we already know that it is an incorrect theory, then someone else saying "then last level will require 30B" would not make his calculations incorrect or stupid.

Anyway if a lot of people (I see 12 with 4k fame on leaderboards) completed the event, I am sure there would be some info about required stats for final level already. Why is not it around yet? Can anyone care to share?

I'm done already, I'm one of the people with 4k fame.

The event is easier, even my test account which only has the free girl at <40k stats and less than 1k stamina finished it... Thus it's more accessible. I could even provide the exact stats, but why would I? At the time I posted that I estimated it to be <600k I had yet to complete it, but it isn't even incorrect and I was able to determine that by considering what would be reasonable by looking at how things were handled before.

How do we know Ashes completed the event? Because he has all the outfits, which was posted here as well as in the Discord, in addition to him getting a rounded Fame value, which only happens if you get all the Fame that the event has to offer. "We" know it because we are all capable of seeing that he got all the Fame in the leaderboards. This is common knowledge, because everyone can click on the leaderboards and see it for themselves. You can even take it one step further, as a lot of people below 4k Fame have values that they can only get if they completed the event, as nothing other than a specific combination of ranks in addition to the full event reward would result in the amount they have, but that would be a bit more effort than I would expect people to take.

The formula used to be included in the games javascript, it was removed for a while now, because it didn't really serve much of a purpose other than being part of something that emulated the fight on the client side using a seed it received from the server. Currently the game just receives all the info it needs from the server, rather than calculating it locally.

The leaderboards are not hidden knowledge. The fact that Ashes has the outfits and completed the event are not hidden knowledge.
I also never said his calculations were stupid, but the assumption he made based on the information that was available to him was. Without that assumption, he would not have calculated it to begin with and he wouldn't have thrown a tantrum.

Like I said earlier, I could share but I don't want to. There isn't anything for me to gain from it, and people would still give up on things before they start trying.

The reason whales wouldn't buy the fight renewal is also simple, there aren't a lot of people who would search through the games code every update and it was only in there during the first few days of the halloween event, and the discord is mostly inactive. The only whales on the discord are me and Ashes, the rest of the people are f2p. The majority wouldn't even know they could try it, much less actually try it. The reason I brought it up is because it shows that you have a chance at getting more as a free player than you were aware of.

Here is a screenshot of my testing account, after you finish the event it lets you use them for normal fights:

Originally Posted by soviras

The majority wouldn't even know they could try it

Thanks a lot. I noticed that I could win with lower stats, but that there seems to be a hard capping to your chance of winning is ... very good to know. Better to say a hard capping of your chance to loose.

Originally Posted by soviras

I'm done already, I'm one of the people with 4k fame.

Finally, at least some actual information that you know what you are talking about instead of just guessing with us based on the info that was provided in that short post and basic experience from the game itself.

How do we know Ashes completed the event? Because he has all the outfits, which was posted here as well as in the Discord, in addition to him getting a rounded Fame value, which only happens if you get all the Fame that the event has to offer.

He could have collected pictures from several other people and gathered them together or could have used several account like you. At the time of posting we didn't know that he had all girls, we knew that he somehow got the pictures together. Rounded fame value - how could we know how much fame event rewards unless we completed event ourselves? It could have been 500 for first 10 levels, then 250 for next 5.

The formula used to be included in the games javascript, it was removed for a while now, because it didn't really serve much of a purpose other than being part of something that emulated the fight on the client side using a seed it received from the server. Currently the game just receives all the info it needs from the server, rather than calculating it locally.

This is interesting info, indeed. Thanks for sharing that formula.

The reason whales wouldn't buy the fight renewal is also simple, there aren't a lot of people who would search through the games code every update and it was only in there during the first few days of the halloween event, and the discord is mostly inactive.

By the way you mentioned that formula and talked about stamina helping in fights I supposed that it is also common knowledge between people who are on discord. Based on formula and event length you don't even need to buy fight renewal, you have more than 300 potential fights during this period. 3 fights per hour means you only need 100 hours or 10 days (with 10 hour/day) of playtime to complete it if you already have 4k stamina.

Anyway, the way you look at this situation reminds me of Vogons in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (or the people who destroyed Dent's house, that were similar), where they say that you should have known that you planet is going to be demolished, because this thing was posted years ago in some galaxy right near yours, so it was a common knowledge. Not everyone uses discord, not everyone cares so much to look through the code, not everyone knows everything about this game. So I don't know why you think that something that you know should have been known by everyone else. When someone makes a post on a forum he does not have to learn the game by heart, that's what discussions are for. I found several things that are actually interesting for me from this discussion - how requirements behave at higher level of this event (at least 6 and 7), the formula, that event girls are shown in leaderboards if their stats are higher and that you are one of those people at the top of the leaderboards, so I get that you have a different view of the game because you can see it in full, not just part of it as I do. For example when you said that there are a lot of gems that you get from playing I was surprised - but now I see that you only get them if you invested, not if you are a free player. If you are a free player, you are lucky if you get 2 gems per week when you need 170 for next speed upgrade. Or when you said that new event is more accessible.

Originally Posted by Hornypony

And santa double only up to 100k. After that ~125k and then 157k.

Thanks a lot for actual values. It seems I will be able to continue for one more level after the one where I thought I would get stuck. I have only 1.2k stamina so trying to win based on stamina only will result in too many loses, but I have time to upgrade to 130k.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

I have only 1.2k stamina so trying to win based on stamina only will result in too many loses, but I have time to upgrade to 130k.

Assuming the provided formula is still correct (patches on the server are not seen and the formula is no longer in the client for simulation, as I read) and assuming I understood the formula, it only provides a capping to the chance to loose. So with 1.2k Stamina fighting against 1.2k Stamina Santa this is 1.2% Chance of not loosing at the worst, even with untrained Mistlehoe. But you do not have an untrained Mistlehoe.

(Assuming the untrained minimum 1% you would need about 21 days of near perfect constant play to get 1500 trys. Of course, chance is a tricky thing and you can get it done in 500 or 5000 trys. Or even 15 trys)

Originally Posted by Hornypony

Assuming the provided formula is still correct (patches on the server are not seen and the formula is no longer in the client for simulation, as I read) and assuming I understood the formula, it only provides a capping to the chance to loose. So with 1.2k Stamina fighting against 1.2k Stamina Santa this is 1.2% Chance of not loosing at the worst, even with untrained Mistlehoe. But you do not have an untrained Mistlehoe.

(Assuming the untrained minimum 1% you would need about 21 days of near perfect constant play to get 1500 trys. Of course, chance is a tricky thing and you can get it done in 500 or 5000 trys. Or even 15 trys)

1.2k stamina gives 2.2% min chance according to formula.

I understood it as a critical chance to win. Like in DnD when you have no chance to hit unless you get a 20 dice roll. So you always lose if you have lower stats except some rare cases when you roll this chance. When I get back to rank 18 I will try focusing on event for a while in case I misunderstood this thing to see if chance to win is actually better when stats are close but still lower than enemy's. I recently posted that I am lucky in challenge currently winning 2 out of three battles at rank 18 and after that all battles except 1 were loses so I am back at 3/5 at rank 16... Rank 18 gives 3 gems instead of 2 so I really want to get back there.

I also can't imagine how this thing would be animated. When fighting with 1k stats and 4k stamina versus enemy with 1M stats and 4k stamina, you get lucky and one-shot the 1M enemy? If you don't one-shot him, he will have several attacks before your next one that will one-shot you instead. So during normal battle you just scratch the enemy and when you are lucky you just one-shot him? Seems strange.