Originally Posted by
Hornypony
Assuming the provided formula is still correct (patches on the server are not seen and the formula is no longer in the client for simulation, as I read) and assuming I understood the formula, it only provides a capping to the chance to loose. So with 1.2k Stamina fighting against 1.2k Stamina Santa this is 1.2% Chance of not loosing at the worst, even with untrained Mistlehoe. But you do not have an untrained Mistlehoe.
(Assuming the untrained minimum 1% you would need about 21 days of near perfect constant play to get 1500 trys. Of course, chance is a tricky thing and you can get it done in 500 or 5000 trys. Or even 15 trys)