Thread: [EVENT 106] Turning the Tables! The Great Gamble on the Water (2/18/2019 to 3/4/2019)

Violet Cress - Marks down the racers who are the most likely to take places 1 and 2.
Lobelia - Puts a whip mark on the racers that will be in the lower places (possibly the two last places).
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

Voilet Cress marks x20 and x50 to be in the top 2.
Lobelia marks x30 and x100 to do badly, which doesn't really help us at all, since we already know the top 2.
Nazuna marked x50, x20 and x10. If Lobelia would always mark the last two places, this would cause an update of Nazuna's predicting habits.

x20 and x50 seem to be equally probable to win the next race.

RESULTS: x20, x50, x10, x100, x30

It seems Nazuna's third mark doesn't necessarily mean that racer will be outside the top 3.
Additionally, so far Lobelia has always marked the last two racers.

x50 won the last race. I guess x20 have more chance to be the winner here.

I'm not sure two racers with the same odds can't win one after the other, so I don't think that influences the results.

I'm not sure too but I don't remember it occured once during all the previous swan races.

think I miss something

Originally Posted by HungryHunter

think I miss something

What do you mean?

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

Di Yu's prediction:
x100 - 3rd
x50 - 4th
x20 - 5th
x10 - 1st
x30 - 2nd, because x50 is 4th
Green Bell predicts x10 to be before x30 and them both before x20, which matches Di Yu's prediction.
Nazuna's mark on x10 and x30 matches her observed rules of prediction so far, x20 being the mark not in the top 3.

It's a pretty clear situation where x10 should win.

RESULTS: x10, x30, x100, x50, x20

Another race where Di Yu says how it is.