Thread: [EVENT 113] Happy Mushroom Stew (5/27/2019 TO 6/10/2019)

I like mushroom umbrella



miss rounds

Hyacinth - Reliable predictions for racers with the highest odds.
Kale - Somehow, almost always predicts wrong.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

Ok, this one's a bit tricky.
If Hyacinth's predictions work similar to Dusty Miller's, she would be predicting that x50 wins, followed by x100.
Kale on the other hand eliminates x50, x20 and x10 as winners, so that contradicts the previous prediction.
Nazuna marked x100, x20 and x30. Since x100 and x30 are not marked by Kale and x100 is marked by Hyacinth too, her prediction seems consistent. It doesn't help with deciding which of the previous predictions is correct though.
In the end it depends on which prediction is more trustworthy. If Hyacinth's, then x50 might win. If Kale's, then probably x30 since presumably x100 was marked by Hyacinth to get a lower score than x50. x100 is still a possibility though.
Only the results can show what are their predicting habits truthfully.

RESULTS: x100, x30, x50, x10, x20

It seems Kale can more defintely tell which racers will take the last 3 places.
By these results, I guess I'm still misunderstanding Hyacinth's predicting habits.

Hyacinth's predictions are reliable for the high odds racers (10x and 20x). For lower odds, she's not to be trusted.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Hyacinth's predictions are reliable for the high odds racers (10x and 20x). For lower odds, she's not to be trusted.

???

High odds are 100x and 50x.

Look up Alium (who targets high odds to place 1st/2nd) and her forecasts from event 89. She only picked the said odds.
Day 3: x50 - 1st
Day 7: x100 - 2nd
Day 8: x50 - 1st
Final: x100 - 1st

Peach - Marks all the racers from odds x20-x100, who'll end up in a higher place than their odds say.
Dusty Miller - Sharp predictions concerning the situation of the 2nd and 3rd most popular racers (x20, x30).
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

This one seems pretty straightforward.
Peach predicts that x20 will take a higher place then the odds suggest, so that should be the winner.
Dusty Miller confirms that with a double circle on x20.
Nazuna marked x10, x20 and x30. It doesn't relly matter much at this point, but it suggests that either x10 or x30 may be outside of the top 3 in the end.

RESULTS: x20, x10, x50, x30, x100

About those high/low odds - yeah, I was thinking about naming it more intuitively, but this is how the game understands it:
x50, x100 - high odds
x10, x20 - low odds

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Hyacinth - Reliable predictions for racers with the highest odds.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

According to Di Yu:
x100 - 2nd
x30 - 3rd
x50 - 1st
x20 - 4th
x10 - 5th
This time, Hyacinth's prediction matches that, saying x50 will be first, then x100.
I'll write down Nazuna's predictions from now on if they actually help with deciding the winner, as they rarely do. This time it seems pretty straightforward.

RESULTS: x50, x100, x30, x20, x10

shit im safe
aint miss special shit

Water Lily - Marks all the racers who will take the same place their odds suggest.
Kale - Somehow, almost always predicts wrong.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

Pretty easy one this time as well.
Water Lily marked x10, x20 and x30, making them 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Kale marks x30 and the rest as being in the end.

RESULTS: x10, x20, x30, x100, x50

Physostegia - Marks the racers who will take high places.
Dusty Miller - Sharp predictions concerning the situation of the 2nd and 3rd most popular racers (x20, x30).
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

Physostegia predicts x30 will take a high place.
Dusty Miller agrees, marking x30 with a double circle. This would mean x30 will be first, taking account her previous predictions this event.

RESULTS: x30, x10, x50, x100, x20