Thread: [EVENT 113] Happy Mushroom Stew (5/27/2019 TO 6/10/2019)

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New Ladies

Dusty Miller - Sharp concerning the situation of the 2nd and 3rd most popular racers (x20, x30). I'm not sure at this point if this means she correctly predicts them being 2nd and 3rd or their place overall.
Kale - Somehow, almost always predicts wrong.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

I can't remember how Dusty Miller's predictions worked from the previous events, which means x30 will be either 3rd or 1st as far as I can tell.
Kale's predictions eliminate x20, x10 and x100 from winning, though I'm not sure how unreliable they are.
Nazuna marked x30, x10 and x50. Considering the other predictions, x30 and x50 will be in the top 3, making x50 another possibility for 1st.
It seems that checks out with the predictions of other players at the moment.

RESULTS: x30, x50, x10, x100, x20

Okay, this means Dusty Miller's predictions for x20 and x30 mean their overall place.
All of Kale's marks are below the top 2, so that's also something to take note of.

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Peach - Marks all the racers from odds x20-x100, who'll end up in a higher place than their odds say.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

According to Di Yu:
x100 - 5th
x50 - 4th
x20 - 1st, since x10 is 3rd
x30 - 2nd, since x50 is 4th
x10 - 3rd
Peach marked everyone she could, signaling they will take places higher than their odds. It checks out with Di Yu's predictions.
Nazuna marked x50, x20 and x30. Since x20 and x30 are the top 2, it checks out.

RESULTS: x20, x30, x10, x50, x100

Exactly as Di Yu predicted and Peach confirmed.

Dusty Miller - Sharp predictions concerning the situation of the 2nd and 3rd most popular racers (x20, x30). I assume the type of mark corresponds to the place, double circle meaning the 1st place.
Water Lily - Marks all the racers who will take the same place their odds suggest.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

If I understand Dusty Miller's predictions right, she's saying that x20 will take the 3rd place and x30 will take the second. I can't be sure just yet if that's the case though.
Water Lily only marked x100. This means that every racer other than x100 will take a different place then their odds suggest - x100 will still be 5th, x10 will not be first, etc. This agrees with Dusty Miller's prediction, since x20 and x30 would take different places.
Nazuna marked x10, x20 and x30. Since x20 and x30 are the top 3, it checks out.

It seems x50 will win. As a backup, x30 can be bet on as well.

RESULTS: x50, x30, x20, x10, x100

This confirms Dusty Miller's predicting style.

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference.
Physostegia - Marks the racers that will enter the higher ranks. I assume this means racers like x50 or x100 ending up in a high place.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

Once again, Di Yu says it all:
x100 - 4th
x30 - 3rd
x50 - 2nd
x20 - 5th
x10 - 1st
Physostegia seems to be saying that out of the racers with the biggest multipliers only x50 will end up in a high place. This checks out, since x50 should be 2nd and x100 4th according to Di Yu.
Nazuna marked only x10. It's a bit unexpected, since she usually marks 3 racers. Maybe her predictions prioritize the winner in such cases?

RESULTS: x10, x50, x30, x100, x20

Just as Di Yu predicted.

I like mushroom umbrella



miss rounds

Hyacinth - Reliable predictions for racers with the highest odds.
Kale - Somehow, almost always predicts wrong.
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

Ok, this one's a bit tricky.
If Hyacinth's predictions work similar to Dusty Miller's, she would be predicting that x50 wins, followed by x100.
Kale on the other hand eliminates x50, x20 and x10 as winners, so that contradicts the previous prediction.
Nazuna marked x100, x20 and x30. Since x100 and x30 are not marked by Kale and x100 is marked by Hyacinth too, her prediction seems consistent. It doesn't help with deciding which of the previous predictions is correct though.
In the end it depends on which prediction is more trustworthy. If Hyacinth's, then x50 might win. If Kale's, then probably x30 since presumably x100 was marked by Hyacinth to get a lower score than x50. x100 is still a possibility though.
Only the results can show what are their predicting habits truthfully.

RESULTS: x100, x30, x50, x10, x20

It seems Kale can more defintely tell which racers will take the last 3 places.
By these results, I guess I'm still misunderstanding Hyacinth's predicting habits.

Hyacinth's predictions are reliable for the high odds racers (10x and 20x). For lower odds, she's not to be trusted.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Hyacinth's predictions are reliable for the high odds racers (10x and 20x). For lower odds, she's not to be trusted.

???

High odds are 100x and 50x.

Look up Alium (who targets high odds to place 1st/2nd) and her forecasts from event 89. She only picked the said odds.
Day 3: x50 - 1st
Day 7: x100 - 2nd
Day 8: x50 - 1st
Final: x100 - 1st

Peach - Marks all the racers from odds x20-x100, who'll end up in a higher place than their odds say.
Dusty Miller - Sharp predictions concerning the situation of the 2nd and 3rd most popular racers (x20, x30).
Nazuna - At least two out of the three racers she marks will be in the top 3.

->Open Spoiler<-

This one seems pretty straightforward.
Peach predicts that x20 will take a higher place then the odds suggest, so that should be the winner.
Dusty Miller confirms that with a double circle on x20.
Nazuna marked x10, x20 and x30. It doesn't relly matter much at this point, but it suggests that either x10 or x30 may be outside of the top 3 in the end.

RESULTS: x20, x10, x50, x30, x100

About those high/low odds - yeah, I was thinking about naming it more intuitively, but this is how the game understands it:
x50, x100 - high odds
x10, x20 - low odds