Thread: Swan Boat predictions ("Where Does The Fishing Line Flow Out To?" event)

Since the swanboat event came around again, time to get the predictions going.

Tampala - Marks the racers who'll take high and low places regardless of their odds
Balsam - Marks racers who'll do worse than their odds suggest

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As Tampala is a new predictor, it may be hard to tell exactly how her predictions work. For the moment, it seems she predicts x30 and x10 to take high places.
Balsam predicts x10 and x20 do do worse than their odds suggest.
This probably means that x30 will take 1st and x10 2nd.

RESULTS: x30, x10, x100, x50, x20

Iwarenge - Predicts if the top 2 most popular racers (x10, x20) will break into the top 2 places
Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers

->Open Spoiler<-

If I understood Iwarenge's prediction habits correctly, x10 and x20 will take the top places.
Green Bell predicts x10 will be in front of x20 and x20 to be in front of x30.
x10 is the most likely winner.

RESULTS: x10, x20, x50, x30, x100

Karin - Marks 3 racers out of the top 4
Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference

->Open Spoiler<-

According to Karin, x30, x20 and x100 all have a chance to win.
According to Di Yu:
x30 - 1st, because x50 is 5th
x10 - 2nd
x20 - 4th
x100 - 3rd
x50 - 5th

RESULTS: x30, x10, x100, x20, x50

Burning Bush - Turns up only when x100 will enter the top 2
Calla - Predicts the results of racers who were not given a double circle or special mark from the other predictors

->Open Spoiler<-

From Burning Bush we know that x100 will be somewhere in the top 2.
If Calla's marking follows standard rules, x50 will take a higher place than x30.
The win goes to either x100 or x50.

RESULTS: x100, x50, x30, x20, x10

Karin - Marks 3 racers out of the top 4
Balsam - Marks racers who'll do worse than their odds suggest

->Open Spoiler<-

Karin marks x50, x10 and x30 to be the possible winners.
Balsam rules out x10 and x20 from winning.
Since we don't know who's the last of the top 4, we can only go by Balsam's predictions and bet on x50, x30 or x100.
Let's see if Nazuna actually help this time around.

RESULTS: x50, x10, x30, x100, x20

Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end - triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference
Burning Bush - Turns up only when x100 will enter the top 2

->Open Spoiler<-

According to Di Yu:
x50 - 4th
x20 - 1st, because x10 is 3rd
x100 - 2nd, because x20 is 1st
x30 - 5th, because x20 is 1st
x10 - 3rd
It aligns with Burning Bush's prediction, since she says that x100 will be in the top 2.
x20 should be our winner.

RESULTS: x20, x100, x10, x50, x30

Tampala - Marks the racers who'll take high and low places regardless of their odds
Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers

->Open Spoiler<-

Tampala marks x10 and x30 to take the top 2 places.
Green Bell predicts x10 to take a higher place than x30.
x10 is our winner.

RESULTS: x10, x30, x20, x100, x50

Iwarenge - Predicts if the top 2 most popular racers (x10, x20) will break into the top 2 places
Calla - Predicts the results of racers who were not given a double circle or special mark from the other predictors

->Open Spoiler<-

From Iwarenge, we know that the top 2 spots go to x10 and x20.
Calla predicts x10 to be higher than x20, so that's our winner.

RESULTS: x10, x20, x100, x30, x50

Karin - Marks 3 racers out of the top 4
Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end - triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference

->Open Spoiler<-

Karin predicts x50, x30 and x100 will be in the top 4.
According to Di Yu:
x50 - 2nd
x30 - 1st, because x10 is 5th
x10 - 5th, because x100 is 4th
x100 - 4th
x20 - 3rd, because x30 is 1st

RESULTS: x30, x50, x20, x100, x10