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  1. #1

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    Swan Boat predictions ("Where Does The Fishing Line Flow Out To?" event)

    Since the swanboat event came around again, time to get the predictions going.
    Name: Volarmis
    DMM ID: 317568967


  2. #2

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    Day 1



    Tampala - Marks the racers who'll take high and low places regardless of their odds
    Balsam - Marks racers who'll do worse than their odds suggest

    As Tampala is a new predictor, it may be hard to tell exactly how her predictions work. For the moment, it seems she predicts x30 and x10 to take high places.
    Balsam predicts x10 and x20 do do worse than their odds suggest.
    This probably means that x30 will take 1st and x10 2nd.

    RESULTS: x30, x10, x100, x50, x20
    Last edited by Volarmis; 07-06-2020 at 11:17 PM.
    Name: Volarmis
    DMM ID: 317568967

  3. #3

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    Day 2



    Iwarenge - Predicts if the top 2 most popular racers (x10, x20) will break into the top 2 places
    Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers

    If I understood Iwarenge's prediction habits correctly, x10 and x20 will take the top places.
    Green Bell predicts x10 will be in front of x20 and x20 to be in front of x30.
    x10 is the most likely winner.

    RESULTS: x10, x20, x50, x30, x100
    Last edited by Volarmis; 07-07-2020 at 11:20 PM.
    Name: Volarmis
    DMM ID: 317568967

  4. #4

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    Day 3



    Karin - Marks 3 racers out of the top 4
    Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end. Triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference

    According to Karin, x30, x20 and x100 all have a chance to win.
    According to Di Yu:
    x30 - 1st, because x50 is 5th
    x10 - 2nd
    x20 - 4th
    x100 - 3rd
    x50 - 5th

    RESULTS: x30, x10, x100, x20, x50
    Last edited by Volarmis; 07-08-2020 at 11:07 PM.
    Name: Volarmis
    DMM ID: 317568967

  5. #5

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    Day 4



    Burning Bush - Turns up only when x100 will enter the top 2
    Calla - Predicts the results of racers who were not given a double circle or special mark from the other predictors

    From Burning Bush we know that x100 will be somewhere in the top 2.
    If Calla's marking follows standard rules, x50 will take a higher place than x30.
    The win goes to either x100 or x50.

    RESULTS: x100, x50, x30, x20, x10
    Last edited by Volarmis; 07-10-2020 at 11:52 AM.
    Name: Volarmis
    DMM ID: 317568967

  6. #6

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    Day 5



    Karin - Marks 3 racers out of the top 4
    Balsam - Marks racers who'll do worse than their odds suggest

    Karin marks x50, x10 and x30 to be the possible winners.
    Balsam rules out x10 and x20 from winning.
    Since we don't know who's the last of the top 4, we can only go by Balsam's predictions and bet on x50, x30 or x100.
    Let's see if Nazuna actually help this time around.

    RESULTS: x50, x10, x30, x100, x20
    Last edited by Volarmis; 07-11-2020 at 12:18 AM.
    Name: Volarmis
    DMM ID: 317568967

  7. #7

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    Day 6



    Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end - triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference
    Burning Bush - Turns up only when x100 will enter the top 2

    According to Di Yu:
    x50 - 4th
    x20 - 1st, because x10 is 3rd
    x100 - 2nd, because x20 is 1st
    x30 - 5th, because x20 is 1st
    x10 - 3rd
    It aligns with Burning Bush's prediction, since she says that x100 will be in the top 2.
    x20 should be our winner.

    RESULTS: x20, x100, x10, x50, x30
    Last edited by Volarmis; 07-12-2020 at 12:37 AM.
    Name: Volarmis
    DMM ID: 317568967

  8. #8

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    Day 7



    Tampala - Marks the racers who'll take high and low places regardless of their odds
    Green Bell - Correctly predicts the relative order of 3 racers

    Tampala marks x10 and x30 to take the top 2 places.
    Green Bell predicts x10 to take a higher place than x30.
    x10 is our winner.

    RESULTS: x10, x30, x20, x100, x50
    Last edited by Volarmis; 07-13-2020 at 08:18 AM.
    Name: Volarmis
    DMM ID: 317568967

  9. #9

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    Day 8



    Iwarenge - Predicts if the top 2 most popular racers (x10, x20) will break into the top 2 places
    Calla - Predicts the results of racers who were not given a double circle or special mark from the other predictors

    From Iwarenge, we know that the top 2 spots go to x10 and x20.
    Calla predicts x10 to be higher than x20, so that's our winner.

    RESULTS: x10, x20, x100, x30, x50
    Last edited by Volarmis; 07-15-2020 at 01:33 AM.
    Name: Volarmis
    DMM ID: 317568967

  10. #10

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    Day 9



    Karin - Marks 3 racers out of the top 4
    Di Yu - Compares the odds to the place the racer will take in the end - triangle means a one place difference, circle means a two place difference, double circle means at least a three place difference

    Karin predicts x50, x30 and x100 will be in the top 4.
    According to Di Yu:
    x50 - 2nd
    x30 - 1st, because x10 is 5th
    x10 - 5th, because x100 is 4th
    x100 - 4th
    x20 - 3rd, because x30 is 1st

    RESULTS: x30, x50, x20, x100, x10
    Last edited by Volarmis; 07-15-2020 at 01:27 AM.
    Name: Volarmis
    DMM ID: 317568967

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