Popularity Contest #2 Winner's Gacha (4/20 - 4/27)

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Originally Posted by Myrdin

Interesting.
Well at least reading through the last few posts I finally got an Idea how that buff stacks.
I always though it to be weird that "Oh 5. 1,2 6x the activate rat, so if my girl has 30% activation rate, times 6 I have a guaranteed 100% of her activating it), or at least thats what I used to think. Granted I considered it to be kinda wonky and over the top.
So the scaling is much reduced, 0,2 per girl to be precise.
Still a 30% skill rate, time 1,8/ / 2,0 is over the 50/50 range which makes it pretty solid. It requires a full skill act. team though. But certainly is solid.

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I have noticed that the % activation rate for skills is not really accurate. I mean they say 20-30% on average but those skills seem to activate more like 40-50% of the time in reality. I have watched over hundreds of activations and even tho it COULD be an RNG streak it still seems higher than expected. I have also notices that 1.2x activation (a 20% buff so from 20 - 24 or 30 - 36) seems to have a much larger effect than the numbers suggest.

I'm thinking that it's the RNG generator they are using, since computers cannot ever do anything 100% random i'm going to guess that the algorithm they are using is slightly weighted towards the low (or high not sure what skills use) end.

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Originally Posted by Zandel

I have noticed that the % activation rate for skills is not really accurate. I mean they say 20-30% on average but those skills seem to activate more like 40-50% of the time in reality. I have watched over hundreds of activations and even tho it COULD be an RNG streak it still seems higher than expected. I have also notices that 1.2x activation (a 20% buff so from 20 - 24 or 30 - 36) seems to have a much larger effect than the numbers suggest.

I'm thinking that it's the RNG generator they are using, since computers cannot ever do anything 100% random i'm going to guess that the algorithm they are using is slightly weighted towards the low (or high not sure what skills use) end.

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Hmm well the truth is, there must be some higher RnG involved.
On multiple occassions I have seen a skill activation team I have miss one or two turns without a single activation.
Now If I understand the scaling 4 girls with 1.2, should give you 1.8 buff, 5 girls should give you 2.0 correct ?
With 5 skill levels which for 5* is in the 30-34% range that if we multiply. gives us around 61% chance for activation.
That by itself is over the 50/50 range.
And yet many times you see the girls standing, smiling and bashing the enemies with basic attacks. RnG is RnG I suppose.

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Originally Posted by Drip

Ah, but avarages do exist, even in RNG. It just doesn't simply work additively, and often you need to make odd calculations to get the results you want. When you plot out all the possible resultsand the chance for them to happen, you get the well known Bell Curve (because it's shaped like a bell). Still, it remains RNG, and people (gamblers specifically) like to take their chances at getting something from the far right side of the curve, even though they have the same chance at ending up on the far left side, and that the peak of the bell curve is just the most common result, but that no guarantee is ever given that you'll actually manage even that result.

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There's several problems with this logic:

(1) You're assuming that you know the outcome, and so can determine when (time)
(2) You're also assuming you know the outcomes of everyone else
(3) You're also assuming that you know when the end is for the entire history of this particular event (e.g., the life span of Nutaku's FKG)

This is why calculating odds is a useless endeavor. While Nutaku posts the supposed rates for draws, they have an exit clause in their EULA which suggests bugs, improper coding, errors in server operations, etc., may change those draw rates without prior notice. In a perfect world, sure, I'm guessing the statistical modeling could be helpful, but again, it is still largely worthless. As Dr. Tyson would say, random is random, and trying to predict it is a fool's errand.