Raffle: 3,000 gold Question and Info thread

[playerk125]

a givaway i like it ^^

[Ampchan]

Since the typical raffle has ~120 entries, your chances to win are 1/12+1/11+1/10. That's about 25%. That means your 500 Credits will most likely earn you about 6 wins if this keeps up.... how about no? The whole thing must be a bitch to manually move the rewards all the time.

I'm sorry but that is not how the numbers work.....

It is a 10 in 120 chance, followed by a 10 in 119 chance, followed by a 10 in 118 chance....

Chance of winning is then 1 - chance of failing all 3 pulls with 10 tickets
or
1 - [ ( 110 / 120) * (109 / 119) * (108/118) ] which still equals about a 23% chance.... but your reason is wrong D:

.... I hope this is not how they are teaching math now a days because while this can be used for approximation, it is still wrong :C

Is this a Common Core thing? Because it seems like one of the shortcuts that they try to teach in common core that is making us in higher education cry

[Eversor86]

I like how my sarcastic post brings math lessons to this topic ^_^

[Ampchan]

Yeah :C

Sorry about that.

[Slashley]

I'm sorry but that is not how the numbers work.....

It is a 10 in 120 chance, followed by a 10 in 119 chance, followed by a 10 in 118 chance....--

As far as I can tell a single person can't win the same raffle twice. The other assumption I made is that everyone will have 10 tickets.

Henceforth, 10 tickets / 120 total tickets, somebody wins that's not you, 10 tickets out of / 110 tickets, etc. So in short, 1/12+1/11+1/10. I stand by my ~25% chance until I see somebody win two raffle awards some week.
EDIT: If you really want to complain about something mathematic, point out that 1/12+1/11+1/10 is not actually 25%. Which would be very true. But I never said it was exactly that~

[Eversor86]

Technically you both are right - one side assumes everyone uses 10 tickets and that if you were chosen already your other tickets aren't used anymore - the other side goes by minimalistic assumption that everyone else than us use 1 ticket or that one person can win multiple times on single raffle.

Both of you forgot thou that my luck in such things reduces your calculated win chances down by like a factor of 10 at least ^_^

[Kotono]

The same person cannot win twice in one week. I have already told it not to allow that.
If it does happen then it is a software bug.

[Eversor86]

Welp, I actually won, thou need to win 4 more times to get even with Crimson .

But this means something bad will happen to me IRL (so its good I barely leave my home, but doesn't help me entirely lol).

[Ampchan]

I actually haven't done this for a few weeks now and I rolled 4 rainbows in that time :|

So all my luck is going towards that at the moment instead.

... that and I am not talking here a lot because I have been quite busy and I feel like I need to be more active before playing or the point loss is going to start really catching up to me...

[MalusCorvus]

I seem to have won a prize from this week's raffle! However I haven't gotten a PM yet... getting somewhat anxious, due to the close deadline...