Thread: Harem Heroes Spring Break 2017 Event (March 1-15)

Originally Posted by soviras

Not broken, just bad luck. A dry streak of several hundreds of fights isn't too strange, when the droprate per fight is a lot lower than 1%. I think it's around 0,5% per girl, but it may be more or less as it's hard to be sure. If it is 0,5% chance, then you would have a ~98% chance to get it by your 800th fight, but that still means 1/50 people won't have it and those are the ones that mention it.

I am to lazy to even calculate whats the chance to win exactly 5 times across 200 fights and how it compares to less than 1.82% chance to lose all 800 fights (with 0.5% win chance per fight), but something tells me its actually far smaller value. Question is how to look at it - me being lucky or unlucky hehe.

If that win chance of 0.5% is true, then with 2400 fights (so 50 to 60 days depending on how many fights a day one does) one should have 99.9994% chance to get the girl. I am at probably over 900 fights atm (20 days with around 45 fights a day) so we will see if I manage to get fucked and not get her in all 2K4 fights.