Thread: Festival Girls Issue

Originally Posted by soviras

It means that if the RNG generates a value, that the system reduces (or removes) the chance for that value to come up again until all values have come out at least once. But that is not something the drop system in this game does.

That's not how it works. Say for the sake of argument there's a 0.1% chance of a drop, and mt_getrandmax() is 2147483647. You call mt_rand() and if the result is < (2147483647/1000) then a girl drops. If you want to increase the chance of a drop you don't go "oh mt_rand() returned 9823625 I'll remember that number and if mt_rand() returns that again I'll get a new random number instead" you just increase the probability.

Originally Posted by BgSt

That's not how it works. Say for the sake of argument there's a 0.1% chance of a drop, and mt_getrandmax() is 2147483647. You call mt_rand() and if the result is < (2147483647/1000) then a girl drops. If you want to increase the chance of a drop you don't go "oh mt_rand() returned 9823625 I'll remember that number and if mt_rand() returns that again I'll get a new random number instead" you just increase the probability.

It isn't something this game does, but it's quite a common thing. In systems that do use that, a 0.1% chance would be guaranteed to happen within every full set (assuming the sets size is 1000, then it would happen exactly once), but it would be at a random place in the set. This also has a very different effect compared to just increasing the probability, as it also limits the max amount of something you can have in a row. It's very important to have that kind of behavior in certain cases, like when simulating a deck of cards on the go. Also, both me and the other guy said the game doesn't do that, so I don't know why you're trying to argue that it doesn't do that...

If it's highter, say 0.25 then tripling that would be 0.75% - so somewhere around what 133 to start getting insanly unlikely no to have gotten one

Given the observed drop rates I'd say it is around 0.1% - 0.2%, and yes that's too low

In the end I didn't get any event girl to drop. :'(

So out of frustration I did the math going with greetingz numbers.

Originally Posted by greetingz

There was nothing wrong, A 0.1% X 3 = 0.3% it's still minimal. 3‰ means 3 in 1000. But that resets per each fight. It doesn't increase the more you fight. It's a dice roll to basicly roll 1000 6's in a row.

According you played for about 13 hours a day, fighting bosses religiously so your stamina bar never fills up: Your chances of getting the two girls at the end of the event were: 50 %.

That's... quite low for such commitment to say the least. And if you wanted to be sure to get all the drop girls using stamina refills you'd have had to spend 5000 kobans, that's two koban trucks and that's.... 200€or 222$. Which teaches us that that devs don't want you to get the girls from bosses at all, hence why boss droppable event girls are available in epic pachinko.

So basically if you want to be sure to get all the event girls that's 250€ 277$ through pachinko to be sure.(presuming you have all the story girls)

Two weeks commitment for a coin toss, 277$ for a two weeks event, you're the judges.