Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Although I've only gotten 1 girl from each of the last 3 events (and I used to get both), I think the 1 in 300 chance is a little low. (although I can easily believe the regular girl drop rate is less than 1 in 5000).
I usually am able to fight 3 times a day during events, so thats 15 attempts a day. in a 14 day event, thats about 210 attempts. I usually find the first girl about day 8.. at have always found at least 1 girl so far. So my guess is event girls are closer to 1 in 150 or 1 in 200, than 1 in 300.
For how many events there have been, that's actually still well within the margin of error for the event girl drops with how many observations you made. I've gotten every event girl except for one event, and it's more or less consistent with the 3x drop rate for event girls (3x compared to the drop rate for a specific normal girl, which is 1/1000). During events, I fight every time that it's possible, which is ~72 times per day (not exactly because it's actually a bit more than 10 minutes per energy). I tend to have both event girls by the time the event finished, but it averages out to some time during the 9th day, which is also consistent with a 1/300 drop rate. If it was 1/200, it would average out around the 6th day instead.