Thread: Epic Pachinko single game girl drop rate

I've never spent any of the koban I've earned on anything, and had 40K+ of them. And I've been wondering what's the best odds for getting girls in Epic Pachinko. 10 game guarantees 1 girl, but what if 1 game is 12% chance or something like that?

So I thought, "Let's find out!".

I just played 74 Epic Pachinko single game, and got 5 girls. That's ~6.7% drop rate for non-event time. Of course it might be different during events, I dunno.

Totally not worth it, save your kobans and do 10x play instead.

Thanks for the research - that's good to know

Originally Posted by BgSt

I've never spent any of the koban I've earned on anything, and had 40K+ of them. And I've been wondering what's the best odds for getting girls in Epic Pachinko. 10 game guarantees 1 girl, but what if 1 game is 12% chance or something like that?

So I thought, "Let's find out!".

I just played 74 Epic Pachinko single game, and got 5 girls. That's ~6.7% drop rate for non-event time. Of course it might be different during events, I dunno.

Totally not worth it, save your kobans and do 10x play instead.

Thanks for the research, but I saw wholly opposite conclusions on discord. So I guess the matter is not settled :/

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Thanks for the research, but I saw wholly opposite conclusions on discord. So I guess the matter is not settled :/

this seems like the best analysis so far and therefore it is the most reliable in my eyes. other 'research' usually includes lucky streaks/high rolls where people did 5 rolls and got 2 girls etc. much lower sample size and heavily biased towards result oriented interpretation.
I would always believe high sample sizes much more, keep in mind that the 6.7% probably still are not representative as <100 rolls is still magnitudes below reliable data, but it hints towards droprates < 10% and therefore his conclusion to use kobans for 10x rolls only seems solid. (Given that he did not randomly came up with some numbers - but why should he?)

Originally Posted by wthvr

this seems like the best analysis so far and therefore it is the most reliable in my eyes. other 'research' usually includes lucky streaks/high rolls where people did 5 rolls and got 2 girls etc. much lower sample size and heavily biased towards result oriented interpretation.
I would always believe high sample sizes much more, keep in mind that the 6.7% probably still are not representative as <100 rolls is still magnitudes below reliable data, but it hints towards droprates < 10% and therefore his conclusion to use kobans for 10x rolls only seems solid. (Given that he did not randomly came up with some numbers - but why should he?)

I've actually done that before, gotten 2 girls out of 5 tries. I hope it doesn't give you good rates the first few tries in an effort to real you in and make you keep playing, like real slot machines do. Anyway, after the first 2 wins (out of five tries and winning on the 2nd and 5th try) I did play several more times. The best I can remember, it was between 14 and 16 tries, but I was trying to duplicate the initial success. Well, I didn't win any more girls. Technically I guess you can say I broke even with about 18 tries in total, but you are guaranteed epic items with a 900 koban spin and not guaranteed anything with a single 90 koban spin. Even I believe it is better to save up and just do the 900 koban spin. This is the way it is designed to work. If playing single was a better option, the "900 koban, guaranteed to win a girl" option wouldn't be there.

Originally Posted by wthvr

this seems like the best analysis so far and therefore it is the most reliable in my eyes. other 'research' usually includes lucky streaks/high rolls where people did 5 rolls and got 2 girls etc. much lower sample size and heavily biased towards result oriented interpretation.
I would always believe high sample sizes much more, keep in mind that the 6.7% probably still are not representative as <100 rolls is still magnitudes below reliable data, but it hints towards droprates < 10% and therefore his conclusion to use kobans for 10x rolls only seems solid.

Obviously I'd prefer a larger sample size, but if I'm going to wish for a billion Kobans to do the experiment then I might as well just wish for the game source code

I can't be arsed working out the 95% confidence bounds based on the data I collected (far too long since I did any stats), but personally I'm very confident that the single-game girl drop rate is currently < 10%.

[/QUOTE](Given that he did not randomly came up with some numbers - but why should he?)[/QUOTE]

Lolz. Trolls gonna troll, but no I didn't just make this up, and yes I did spend 39960 Kobans (hentaiheroes.com, not nutaku) on 74 rolls.

Indeed if we said around 7% +/- 1% we're probably close

Makes my lucky run of getting 3 in about 20 rolls dumb luck so I'm back to saving

There is the distinct possibility that the odds vary in function of the number of girls in the epic pachinko. In which case these calculation would be invalidated.
But it's difficult to know.

Interesting. If I do the math correctly then there is a ~76 % probability that the conclusion "P(getting a girl) is less than 10 %" is correct. (One sided statistical test with n=74, H0=0.1, c=6)... still 24 % chance that it was an coincidence.

I tried 22 single games and got 0 girls (during an event). That gives already a probability of over 90 % that the chance of getting a girl is indeed smaller than 10 %. (n=22, H0=0.1, c=1)

I guess saving your kobans is the way to go.

Is that 40K HH or Nutaku kobans?