Thread: Epic Pachinko single game girl drop rate

Originally Posted by wthvr

this seems like the best analysis so far and therefore it is the most reliable in my eyes. other 'research' usually includes lucky streaks/high rolls where people did 5 rolls and got 2 girls etc. much lower sample size and heavily biased towards result oriented interpretation.
I would always believe high sample sizes much more, keep in mind that the 6.7% probably still are not representative as <100 rolls is still magnitudes below reliable data, but it hints towards droprates < 10% and therefore his conclusion to use kobans for 10x rolls only seems solid.

Obviously I'd prefer a larger sample size, but if I'm going to wish for a billion Kobans to do the experiment then I might as well just wish for the game source code

I can't be arsed working out the 95% confidence bounds based on the data I collected (far too long since I did any stats), but personally I'm very confident that the single-game girl drop rate is currently < 10%.

[/QUOTE](Given that he did not randomly came up with some numbers - but why should he?)[/QUOTE]

Lolz. Trolls gonna troll, but no I didn't just make this up, and yes I did spend 39960 Kobans (hentaiheroes.com, not nutaku) on 74 rolls.

Indeed if we said around 7% +/- 1% we're probably close

Makes my lucky run of getting 3 in about 20 rolls dumb luck so I'm back to saving

There is the distinct possibility that the odds vary in function of the number of girls in the epic pachinko. In which case these calculation would be invalidated.
But it's difficult to know.

Interesting. If I do the math correctly then there is a ~76 % probability that the conclusion "P(getting a girl) is less than 10 %" is correct. (One sided statistical test with n=74, H0=0.1, c=6)... still 24 % chance that it was an coincidence.

I tried 22 single games and got 0 girls (during an event). That gives already a probability of over 90 % that the chance of getting a girl is indeed smaller than 10 %. (n=22, H0=0.1, c=1)

I guess saving your kobans is the way to go.

Is that 40K HH or Nutaku kobans?

Originally Posted by vem

Is that 40K HH or Nutaku kobans?

I clarified that further down the thread

Originally Posted by BgSt

39960 Kobans (hentaiheroes.com, not nutaku) on 74 rolls