Thread: Theorycrafting: The likelihood of drawing SR and SSR kamihime in Gatcha

Originally Posted by nazrin992

I'm pretty sure that Granblue Fantasy is more well-known worldwide compared to Kamihime which is hentai game first and foremost.

And with your reply to second quote, you lose me. Do you even play the game?

Could you please elaborate what have i lost about second quote?

I stopped playing nutaku games due to their mis-translation, censorship and not faithful to the original Japanese release as sanahtlig has already reported of nutaku censorship issues. Which lead me not supporting that business practice.

Secondly, A bigger company does not always means they are much more generous.
A small company like Grinding Gear Games was able to release Path Of Exile new class and story expansion for free.
While bigger company like Blizzard charge you for Diablo 3 Necromancer expansion.

Even big company like Square Enix released their Final Fantasy Mobius with expensive Ace Striker job paywall.
And yet there are successful free to play indie games like Clicker Heros, Soda Dungeon, Cave Story, Yume Nikki, Neko Atsume, and the original japanese version vanguard princess who is made by Suge9 is actually free with no paywall.

Simply put Grandblue was able to give away free stuff due to their generosity, while the company size and profit is not the biggest factor.

Simple, you got free tickets in Kamihime as well. No, not really guarantee stuffs but you get them.

Ooh, I know that much. It's matter of generosity vs greed. Cygames are in tune with their playerbase while others just want the MOONEY. It's just corporation. Like our dear nubtaku here.

As the previous poster said, GBF just have whales to support them. Does that actually influence the generosity? I don't know, I never play the game since it was first introduced in mobile world. But I'm pretty sure like most f2p games, they want you to whale for the game before giving out free stuffs.

And one thing. If you don't even play nubtaku games anymore, why are you here? I'm pretty sure you have better time spent on playing GBF or go to their community rather than into nubtaku forum. And I am here being a loyal f2p.

Originally Posted by nazrin992

Simple, you got free tickets in Kamihime as well. No, not really guarantee stuffs but you get them.

Ooh, I know that much. It's matter of generosity vs greed. Cygames are in tune with their playerbase while others just want the MOONEY. It's just corporation. Like our dear nubtaku here.

As the previous poster said, GBF just have whales to support them. Does that actually influence the generosity? I don't know, I never play the game since it was first introduced in mobile world. But I'm pretty sure like most f2p games, they want you to whale for the game before giving out free stuffs.

And one thing. If you don't even play nubtaku games anymore, why are you here? I'm pretty sure you have better time spent on playing GBF or go to their community rather than into nubtaku forum. And I am here being a loyal f2p.

If you interested in Granblue Fantasy, the game is available on computer with English translation. Like Kamihime, you can play the game with google chrome. The game can be downloaded from chrome web store.

For your generous well thought response, I will share the link from the official website:
Link: granbluefantasy.jp/en/download/

The reason I am here, is because I noticed DMM have already started to localize the games by themself.

They published game called OBCIDIAN LEGACY on steam.
Link: store.steampowered.com/app/568190/

And Dandy Dungeon for mobile.
Link: play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.dmm.games.yamada&hl=en

DMM is a very popular website among anime fans. And whenever a website like Siliconera, Crunchyroll and Anime News Network publish an article about DMM games(like new upcoming games like Dead or Alive browser game), I can't help but to think of nutaku when it comes to english localization. As a former player who has played Millennium War Aigis, Kanpani Girls, Flower Knight Girls and Osawari Island. I'm hoping that DMM will localise browser game by their own. I wanted to see if DMM has taken an active role in Nutaku. I wanted to see if Nutaku has been changed and improve recently. But woe is me, sanahtlig has reported that Kamihime was censored by Nutaku once again. Not to mention Nutaku did not officially notify to user that Kamihime will have censorship. It make me sad that Nutaku has mishandled famous DMM games.

As for grandblue fantasy, I did enjoyed the story content. However I found out that I have to join the guild event and do coop quest to have maximum experience. That means I have to keep up with others which may leads to peer pressure. I left the game afterwards. However I did like how they handled the english translation for oversea players.

A reddit user named purge00, mention that:
"One of the benefits is that we are all playing the same JP version of the game. Often times, JP mobile games are published separately for Global, and the game becomes less generous in compensation, handouts, or even core features. Nobody likes to be treated as a second-rate citizen."

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Downside of Granblue on PC is that the interface is still designed for mobile, especially the dimensions of the playing screen itself. It's annoying/strainful for the eyes to look at such a tiny window when so much room is available on a monitor.

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Originally Posted by Unregistered

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Downside of Granblue on PC is that the interface is still designed for mobile, especially the dimensions of the playing screen itself. It's annoying/strainful for the eyes to look at such a tiny window when so much room is available on a monitor.

That's understandable. I do hope that they update the interface like Kamihime. Kamihime Mobile and PC interface are very different.

Ok back on topic, I had some free time so I decided to collect some more data for OP.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h50CB6M2Z8uo0DuxX9rgWnhhfceIhO2LjzOz_0zh3Ns/edit#gid=698248666

Originally Posted by vysethevaliant

What bothers me most isn't necessarily the low SSR draw rates (although I'd love it if they were higher), it's that even when we get a guaranteed SSR event (usually through the purchase of Nutaku Gold) that we get a random SSR in the process and not one we can choose for ourselves.

The thing I really enjoyed about Granblue Fantasy, the game Kamihime Project was so heavily inspired from, was the monthly (give-or-take) ticket purchases, where for 3,000 yen you got a ticket redeemable for a ten-pull in-game (that you could use at any time) as well as a ticket, redeemable for seven days after buying the bundle, that you could exchange for any of the current available SSR characters/summons through the in-game gatcha at that specific point. This made grabbing the one character to really finish off your team extremely easy and guaranteed your money wouldn't be wasted. You could even have a chance to get more than the guaranteed ticket SSR through the included ten-pull ticket, but even if you didn't at least they'd know for sure you'd get something out of it.

Looks like it's time for me to give Granblue Fantasy a spin.

I'm tired of being denied Tyr and Michael through gacha.

Almost everyone on my friend list has a tyr or michael and it really bothers me so I stopped looking at their profiles.


Wait what, why'd Gran blue fantasy go back to japanese halfway into the tutorial? -.-
That was weird had to restart browser to get at that language option change and reset it.

Originally Posted by Ericridge

Looks like it's time for me to give Granblue Fantasy a spin.

I'm tired of being denied Tyr and Michael through gacha.

Almost everyone on my friend list has a tyr or michael and it really bothers me so I stopped looking at their profiles.


Wait what, why'd Gran blue fantasy go back to japanese halfway into the tutorial? -.-

Perhaps these youtube videos might help:
Link: youtube.com/watch?v=iz3U0zp8pJk
Link: youtube.com/watch?v=lA7HbTBJ3fk

Alternatively, one of the youtube video mention that you can download the game from AndApp website.(Note: I never used that website before, Secondly, I can't post the effective link in this post.)

One of a youtube comment mention this:

Yuzuki-Tan:
"Can I do this before that extremly long tutorial so i have a chance to understand what they are explaining?"

sbfky:
"you should be able to do it. Since you have to pick the settings before the game starts."

Yuzuki-Tan:
"oh i found it, there was a confirm setting under the language choice, i still had to go through like a hour long tutorial in japanese so damn annoying"

sbfky
"sorry to hear that."

Yuzuki-Tan:
"its fine i can play the thing now, is the game like etrian oddysey? it looks like it a lot."

More articles about english version:
Link: gameskinny.com/csnga/how-to-play-japanese-mobile-hit-granblue-fantasy-in-english-on-your-pc
Link: steparu.com/previews/miscellaneous/2010-granblue-fantasy-english-patch-is-now-available

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Updated with working link:

AndApp mainpage:
Link: andapp.jp/

Originally Posted by Lothario

Ok back on topic, I had some free time so I decided to collect some more data for OP.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h50CB6M2Z8uo0DuxX9rgWnhhfceIhO2LjzOz_0zh3Ns/edit#gid=698248666

Good job. I used this data to calculate the category rates for SRs. My full calculations are available in the spreadsheet linked in the OP.


Based on this data from 1000 rolls (100 10-rolls), we can conclude with high confidence that category weights differ by rarity tier. While R kamihime are observed at a frequency that resembles what would be expected with no weights at all, SR kamihime are far more likely to be drawn than lone SR weapons, and SR eidolons are also drawn at a higher frequency than their share of total SR possibilities would suggest. This confirms that the Gatcha rates provided in-game are incomplete because they give no information about the relative likelihood of pulling kamihime vs. eidolons vs. weapons.

Given data from 200 more 10-rolls, I can determine the category weights for SSRs, giving us a full picture of Gatcha rates that should remain accurate even as more Gatcha items are added in future updates. This is information that Nutaku should've provided to users to begin with, but has chosen to withhold. These rolls can come from any combination of users over any period of time, so long as you decide to document and report the roll before you see the results.

I'd collect more data once the event is over, also I'd love to find out more regarding the rate up with certain kamihimes as well. At the time the data was collected, it was shown that Amaterasu/Acala/Ifrit had a higher pull rate but out of the 100, I did not get any of them

I've updated the OP with the results of my analysis. Updates include:

1. Incorporation of data from 1000 rolls to empirically determine category rates (kamihime vs. non-kamihime weapon vs. eidolon).
2. Factoring in the guaranteed SR+ in 10-rolls.
3. Added an estimate of the total # of kamihime of a given rarity one could expect from N 10-rolls.

The results should now be robust for R and SR, and approximate for SSR.

Sanahtlig's Kamihime Project R Theorycrafting

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

I've updated the OP with the results of my analysis. Updates include:

I used your data... I think the following summary table, which is easy to calculate, is also much more useful:

Per 300 Jewel:
SSR SR R Total
Kami 1.10% 8.60% 9.70% 19.40%
Eido 1.10% 11.60% 33.30% 46.00%
Wea 0.10% 4.10% 30.40% 34.60%
Total 2.30% 24.30% 73.40% 100.00%

Per 3000 Jewel (chance of 1 or more):
SSR SR
Kami 10.471% 59.312%
Eido 10.471% 70.858%

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By the way, with my results, I'm getting nowhere near 50% chance of SSR Kamihime for $98 (3.3 rolls).
My calculations show it to be 50.184% chance at 6.3 rolls.

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How did you get 19.03% from raw data of 11/1000?
This is probably where our results diverge.
My calculation method is quite simple.
11/1000 = 1.1%
1.1%C10 = 10.471%
1.1%C63 = 50.184%