Thread: Share Your Fortune/Misfortune

Hey Slashey

All good points. I'm simply starting with my observed "no SSR drawn in 7 months", which represents over 300 jewel gacha draws, and something like 50 premium tickets. So yeah, it's utter conjecture - zero on the table could be "give out an SSR", but if it were, then running out of entropy would result in multiple SSR in one draw. That could be true, but my sample shows basic R weapons/eidolons only so I'm positing that the SSRs are at the top-end of the random sample. It's entirely possible I was just very very unlucky; statistical samples of 1 can't be generalised.

It's also possible that they are using a custom random sequence, using a seed from server time. Again, that would mean I've just been unlucky. I'm positing that they're using the random function in Linux and assuming it gives them a random number. In all fairness, I know slot machine games do exactly this, and I would think they would be more sensitive to a scenario that could return all reels showing the same icon than a game where the win has no monetary value.

As to SRs, I'm not really struggling from lack of them - I have 94 out of a possible 130. I've got most of the starting SR kamihime weapons in full break mode from all the duplicates, and most of those 10 draws were just giving me more of the ones I already had. Again, I've had more SRs (about 8 I think) in the last 4 weeks than the previous 7 months, because almost every 10 chain I've drawn in the last 8 months has returned a single SR duplicate. Having drawn something like 50 times trying for each of the new character gacha when ther was something I wanted in it, it is noticeable I got none of the new SRs either. And that's a part of my suspicions - usually when a new event launches with a new character possible, there are always raids to join and any raid I start fills up and completes in a couple of minutes - suggesting busy server. Drawing on the busy time of the busy day is where this problem would manifest - if it exists. So now I'm checking that it's a quiet time (GMT 10:00 to 17:00 on a week night) before drawing anything, and waiting for day 2 or 3 of a new character release.

I'm aware of the previous statistical sampling; one of the things I really appreciate about this community - thorough dedication to research! If this is a thing, from my perspective it is a change that happened towards the end of 2018. I had no issue in 2017 or most of 2018, was drawing 10 chains and getting expected distributions - roughly one SSR every 3 10-chain drawn. Sometimes I went 100 draws with nothing, sometimes 2 SSRs in a single draw. That changed to nothing every draw, but took me a while to notice. If it is a change, it would mean hosting servers were changed around then.

So yeah, probably nothing for anybody to worry about. Probably just me looking for patterns where it's just a statistical anomaly. But I thought I'd post here, just in case there's other people seeing the same statistical anomalies, or someone wanted to run some tests of their own.

Yo Kitty, next time I have 3k jewels, I'll tell you to make my pull.

Originally Posted by Laventale

Yo Kitty, next time I have 3k jewels, I'll tell you to make my pull.

sir yes sir

THE SSR KAMIHIME DROUGHT HAS ENDED

Saw there was a free draw 10 campaign. Press the button to see what useless stuff I'll get. Saw that I was getting a SSR. Close my eyes and open only to see I pulled the feature hime. There goes my luck for the year.

lol Lave, time to fap
as for me, 6k jews + 30 tix + free 10 chain got me only



this

Originally Posted by AutoCrimson

lol Lave, time to fap
as for me, 6k jews + 30 tix + free 10 chain got me only



this

Isn't Gaia limited edition? She's in the f2p gacha pool now?

Originally Posted by ChaoticShinra

Saw there was a free draw 10 campaign. Press the button to see what useless stuff I'll get. Saw that I was getting a SSR. Close my eyes and open only to see I pulled the feature hime. There goes my luck for the year.

Urrkkk!!! I got that too but I already MT-ed Iris and have the weapon maxxed. Times like that I wish to have crap luck!!!!