Well, last one for me. As much as I want Karin, I simply cannot spend more money on the game without it affecting IRL.
Well, 5 SSRs in 199 pulls is... at least okay... ish... that's 2.5% so still under expected. Getting double duplicates, the same one too, is rather unexpected but happens. At this point I had 9/31 SSRs after all, so ~29% chance to get a duplicate (without counting Karin occurrence bonus).
After this, the door to maining Fire has opened up, with three fire SSRs. Well, will give it some thought.
Fun facts, in 440 pulls I got 7 SSRs, so 1.59%. Ouch. At least this time there was no goddamn non-Hime weapons, which I had previously drawn in 4/5 of my SSRs before these pulls. Also, according Sanahtlig's toolbox, with 15x modifier I had a 100% chance of SR Renfa (a rounding error but let's be fair to a spreadsheet) and an expected 12 of them... but all I got was one at the very end. With 5x modifier it reports 99% and expected five.
This sample is far too small to accuse Nutaku of fucking the modifier up, but it does make one wonder. And it should be noted that there was some 20 or so Premium tickets used throughout this, while the calc assumes 10-pulls with modifiers.
All I wanted was Karin, but that didn't happen this year. Next year, the chances will be far smaller to pull her and Karin won't even fit into my Thunder team if I still main it. I did all I could.
I guess on Wed I'll still do as many single pulls as I can with Jewels, but the chances of landing the Karin there is minimal.