Thread: [Event 15] Advent Battle vs Yatagarasu

Originally Posted by Slashley

... will they? Let's see now. This math is going to be very inconsistent, but it gives a rough idea.

Your math on jewels is wrong, and I'm not sure why you tried to calculate SR kamihime rates from scratch when I have a publicly-available Gatcha calculator I spent days working that takes into account factors you're ignoring.

First of all, the expected jewels (15k) you estimated for a player who's been active since day 1 doesn't match actual data. We have an account of a player who claimed he spent 60k jewels in one go, and I myself have accrued somewhere in the neighborhood of 35k (that doesn't include the dozens of harem scenes I haven't watched yet).

Second of all, as others have pointed out, your estimates of the SR kamihime rate from 10-rolls of the jewel Gatcha are very far off. It's about 8% per single roll when you take into account the 10% rate of a guaranteed SR. Again, why are you calculating this ad-hoc rather than using the Gatcha calculator I developed to do this?

Finally, your target estimate of the number of SR kamihime a day 1 player would have doesn't match actual outcomes. I've rolled a total of 1x 10-roll (SSR guaranteed) more than a free player would be able to, and I have 17 SR kamihime. And that's not counting the ~20k jewels (+ dozens of tickets) I'm holding onto right now! Obviously that's not anywhere close to your predictions, for the reasons outlined above. And no, the 'RNG' argument doesn't explain every data point that doesn't match your model, sorry.

... because no. That's just not helpful. Most people simply won't be capable of covering the sufficient number of tools required. And I can't believe I had to make this enormous wall of text just because people refused to think about it when I vaguely pointed in that direction.

No, I perfectly understand this. Not every player is going to have the tools to do every Ragnarok successfully. Ixion was not a Ragnarok that a typical player could do, and I myself struggled to eke out my first victory on it with a fairly optimal team. But if you're going to use a complicated estimate to prove a point, you better test your assumptions and predictions against real data, because all it takes is one minor error to invalidate your result.