Miracle ticket thread

[Gludateton]

Did you really have to make me do my own calculations ? I am to damn lazy for this... but man gotta do, what man have to do.
Wall of text inside, have fun

->Open Spoiler<-

Assumptions:
1. BG gained from damage received is not included.
2. Teams are as follows (Slowpoke being anyone without self combo rate buffs):
a) No Saras team: Herc/Atalanta/Slowpoke/Slowpoke/Slowpoke
b) Saras team: Herc/Saraswati/SLOWPOKE/Atalanta/Slowpoke
3. Probability for combo rates are included as follows (SA/DA/TA):
a) without buffs: 89/8/3,
b) with Saraswati's combo rate buff: 39/38/23,
c) with Hercules' combo rate buff: 54/28/18.
4. Combo rate buffs are included in first 2, 3 or 5 turns (for Atalanta, Saraswati's and Herc's buff respectively).
5. Saraswati's BG buff is considered +25 BG on Herc, +50 BG on herself and +20 BG on the rest (5 BG doesn't matter if we include above assumptions).
6. Saraswati's Combo Rate buff is used on SLOWPOKE (that one with capital letters).
7. Saraswati's BG buff usage is described in results (fact that she has to gain 20 BG less is always included though).
8. BG required for FB is as follows: 100/90/80/70/60.
9. Atalanta's starting BG is considered to be 40, but she has 2 less turns for attacks (we won't be FBing at 3rd turn anyway).
10. No PF is included (too much hassle and I'd probably use Shingen in water for PF).
11. RNG is actually decent (that's a really strong assumption).
12. Numbers shown is results are turn at which FB occurs and probability of it happening.
13. I didn't fuck up anywhare (good joke, but we'll take it).

General idea:
Getting probability for FB in set number of turns.

Results:
No Saras team (the easy one):
FB at 5th turn: 0.000015% (yeah, we can ignore it)
FB at 6th turn: 0.04331% (ignorable also)
FB at 7th turn: 4.40391%
FB at 8th turn: 55.76867%
FB at 9th turn: 100%

Saras team (assuming using BG buff on SLOWPOKE at turn 0):
FB at 4th turn: 0.00179% (let's ignore it)
FB at 5th turn: 0.94054% (close to 1%, but let's ignore this too)
FB at 6th turn: 32.41165%
FB at 7th turn: 95.81819% (technically 100% with second BG buff)
FB at 8th turn: 100%

First conclusions:
That's why I am not that fond of averages in many cases. While Slashley's calc is probably done right (didn't check all formulas, but I believe it's right), seeing just final result is not really reliable.
Let's see, result from Slashley's calc gives us on average FB at 9th turn with No Saras team. Here we have 100% chance for FB at 9th turn, BUT close to 56% chance for FB at 8th turn. That's definitely not something we should ignore and it wasn't completely ignored in Slashley's calc either, one just has to know where to search for it: bottleneck that stops us from FBing at 8th turn is 3rd character with 79.8 BG, that's damn close to 80 (and FB that comes together with it).
Anyway, averages aside, what our probability result shows ? Doesn't it seems that probability result is worse for Saras team than average one (average shows 2 turn reduction and probability shows less chance for 2 turn reduction) ? Was I fool to defend Saraswati after all ? Well, with this results mostly yes. We should take into consideration that reduction from 8th to 6th is better than from 9th to 7th, but that's not important enough to sing praises for our Lady Bard (reductions are reductions though).

But hey, there was one other thing I wanted to check with those calculations. I never use BG buff at turn 0 and consider it more of a BG corrector (aside from it's healing aspect), is it viable ?

Results again:
Assumption of no BG buff for anyone aside from Saraswati (she get's 20, al else none):
FB at 4th turn: 0.00026% (let's ignore it again)
FB at 5th turn: 0.32311% (this will be used)
FB at 6th turn: 19.11439%
FB at 7th turn: 79.01818%
FB at 8th turn: 96.27819%

Assumption of correction on Herc (excludes above results):
FB at 4th turn: 0.00045%
FB at 5th turn: 0.11435%
FB at 6th turn: 0.91990%
FB at 7th turn: 0%
FB at 8th turn: 0%

Assumption of correction on Saraswati herself (exclusion included):
FB at 4th turn: 0.00080%
FB at 5th turn: 0.28800%
FB at 6th turn: 4.56486%
FB at 7th turn: 3.44860%
FB at 8th turn: 0%

Assumption of correction on SLOWPOKE (3rd one, exclusion included):
FB at 4th turn: 0.00153%
FB at 5th turn: 0.61744%
FB at 6th turn: 13.29725%
FB at 7th turn: 16.80002%
FB at 8th turn: 3.72181%

Assumption of correction on Atalanta (exclusion included):
FB at 4th turn: 0.00852%
FB at 5th turn: 1.23104%
FB at 6th turn: 0%
FB at 7th turn: 0%
FB at 8th turn: 0%

Assumption of correction on Slowpoke (5th one, exclusion included):
FB at 4th turn: 0.00444%
FB at 5th turn: 1.87509%
FB at 6th turn: 24.17059%
FB at 7th turn: 0%
FB at 8th turn: 0%

SUM of corrections:
FB at 4th turn: 0.01600%
FB at 5th turn: 4.44903%
FB at 6th turn: 62.06701%
FB at 7th turn: 99.26679%
FB at 8th turn: 100%

Extended conclusions:
Wow, this actually looks much better. We have lost our certain FB at 7th turn (chance of failing is quite small though) for the price of much higher chance of FB at 5th and 6th turn. This results are much closer to general idea of Saraswati reducing FB "wait time" by 2 turns. That was basically what Slashley have said, so results are not really shocking or anything.
BUT !
Do remember my earlier note on what's the base we are reducing from. In this case reduction from 7 to 5, or 8 to 6 is better than from 9 to 7 (even though it's always 2T).

Closing words:
This whole bunch of some numbers and letter was mainly done, because I promised. Additionaly I wanted to show that Saraswati's main asset is actually pretty potent one (though I wouldn't do all this shit because of it, I am too lazy for that). I also didn't believe that using averages is reliable way of getting at topic (it did and didn't show similar results, depend how one will look at it). Do not mistake it for attempt to prove Slashley or his way of calculations wrong, because that wasn't my intent. Do also remember, that both calculations were done with pretty strong assumptions, so they do not entirely describe what happens in game.
There is probability (not that small one), that I did mistake somewhere, but I wish good luck someone trying to prove it (do try, easier for me to fix this, when I know where mistakes are).
I do have excel file where I did all calculations (well duh, I wouldn't do it on paper for sure), but it's in really... crude state, so don't really expect me to sent it to someone soon.

[Slashley]

First conclusions:
That's why I am not that fond of averages in many cases. While Slashley's calc is probably done right (didn't check all formulas, but I believe it's right), seeing just final result is not really reliable.--

Yes, there are certainly problems with averages. For example, the average human has one testicle and one ovary. Does such a person exist? No. And neither does the average turn.

That said, your way to calculate the probability is interesting, and certainly more effective. Just... more of a pain in the ass to do.

Also, I do remember you said using the +burst as correction, but seeing it in action is also quite interesting.

[Gludateton]

Also, I do remember you said using the +burst as correction, but seeing it in action is also quite interesting.

Tbh I always used it like this, because I felt it is the correct way (never bothered to check it) and often heal won't be completely lost. I am surprised that difference is that big though, didn't expect it.

[Mirai]

Hey everyone,

Would love some input for the next miracle ticket. I'm currently rank 58 with 30k atk showing on my profile. My current set-up is:

Ryu-Oh, Snow Raphael, Venus, Nike (SR)
Rudra, Aqua Kaiser Dragoon, Fenrir, Yule Goat, Iwanaga Hime, Thunderbird

For soul I've been using Mordred, about 200 SP away from D'art.

I think I'm between SSR Nike and Ctulhu? I know there's also Asherah and Aphrodite as options. Any input would be appreciated for

[Cobblemaniac]

Hey everyone,

Would love some input for the next miracle ticket. I'm currently rank 58 with 30k atk showing on my profile. My current set-up is:

Ryu-Oh, Snow Raphael, Venus, Nike (SR)
Rudra, Aqua Kaiser Dragoon, Fenrir, Yule Goat, Iwanaga Hime, Thunderbird

For soul I've been using Mordred, about 200 SP away from D'art.

I think I'm between SSR Nike and Ctulhu? I know there's also Asherah and Aphrodite as options. Any input would be appreciated for

Next miracle ticket as in next season? Vohu Manah should be out by then... and that's one of the absolute core of water teams, period.

[Mirai]

Next miracle ticket as in next season? Vohu Manah should be out by then... and that's one of the absolute core of water teams, period.

Got it. What makes Vohu Manah so good?

[Ikki]

Got it. What makes Vohu Manah so good?

Shes babe.

[Cobblemaniac]

Got it. What makes Vohu Manah so good?

Guaranteed triple atk (granted long cd), a debuff skill so strong she basically covers 2 himes worth of debuff against fire. And to offset her cd, she can force normal atk with 2nd skill. And a random turn off cd if she gets hit.

This means quite a lot for her burst gain... and water is terribly lacking in fast burst hime.

[Unregistered]

Hey everyone,

Would love some input for the next miracle ticket. I'm currently rank 58 with 30k atk showing on my profile. My current set-up is:

Ryu-Oh, Snow Raphael, Venus, Nike (SR)
Rudra, Aqua Kaiser Dragoon, Fenrir, Yule Goat, Iwanaga Hime, Thunderbird

For soul I've been using Mordred, about 200 SP away from D'art.

I think I'm between SSR Nike and Ctulhu? I know there's also Asherah and Aphrodite as options. Any input would be appreciated for

Depends how much of a Water-Baka you are... MT Asherah or Sarsawati and next MT Vohu.
Imo get Asherah.

[Mirai]

Thanks for all the info guys. And yeh, she's definitely a babe.