Thread: Vampire's Bride event guide

Originally Posted by Lafate

Actually... you'd only be more likely to get the average. Which it is why it is that. You are not more likely to get all the drops then you are to get none of the drops(that you can miss). You are just as likely to be above average as you are behind. Being on average has the highest probability of occurs because it is just that the average. If it wasn't the most likely to occur for the majority of people it would not be the average.

Haven't exact numbers like.... you have a 1 in 100m chance to have to spend the maximum amount of crystals needed. Doesn't really help or change anything at all. Hell they still wouldn't know what the maximum was.

TL; DR You are more probable to be on average then off it. That is all anyone needs to know in regards to probability unless they are gambling. That is a different kettle of fish.

Yes, the average is most likely (in this case), but what people need is not just the most likely scenario, but the likely scenarioS. People don't just want to know when they have an about 50% chance of winning (the average in the middle), but rather when they can feel safe. That's the exact opposite of gambling, gambling would be if you just get the average amount and hope for the best.

The probabilities I gave were not probabilities like 1 in 100m, that's why I cut them off when they got to that point of "not going to happen ever", exactly because those numbers aren't relevant anymore. The relevant numbers listed were the 10% chance, the 1% chance, maybe also the 0.01% chance, because these chances will still happen to the players. The exact point was that everything beyond that is so unlikely that they don't matter.

The reason I made the post in the first place was in reaction to people who were actually afraid of having bad luck. Most people can't intuitively judge how likely these things are, so if they hear something like "max: 35", some actually become afraid of it because they don't know it's a 1 in 100mmmmmmmmmmmmm (yes, this is the number of "m"s, not just an exaggeration) chance. Not everyone can just spontaneously conjure up 35 crystals on the spot, so it's important to know at which number it's already safe.

Tl;dr: The very fact that the max number created a boogeyman that some people were needlessly afraid of shows how the original data gave people the wrong impression and made it necessary to give some additional info to dispel those fears.