They buffed it last patch, it's actually 40% chance now instead of 25%, so even better.
Also I'm literally God right now. I've predicted every single race in this event correctly, I'm on a roll. I thought the new event girl Sukimia was going to win this race but went on a whim and put all my snowballs into Begonia because I just thought that one of Diyu's predictions had to be correct one day... and... I got it right.
24000 matchsticks in the bank and that along with what I already have can literally buy me everything on phase 2 of this event. XD