Thread: [Event 15] Advent Battle vs Yatagarasu

Originally Posted by Celaien

Hi, I'm fairly new to the game, I've been playing around for 2 months, and while I'm starting to understand the mechanics of the game, I'd like to be helped since I can approach the expert mode relatively well (in manual mode), when I choose "ultimate" has me if or almost impossible to do, since I've done 3 attempts and in both I had to finish using elixir to continue them because I was only 5% to kill the boss ...

Here I leave what I have at present

My team
Attachment 5783
i got Oto-hime and resalka of sub member

My Weapons
Attachment 5784

Eilodons
Attachment 5785

MyKamihime´s
Attachment 5786

Attachment 5788

damn son, you got a lotta water Kamihime

I only have 4

Originally Posted by noxybell

A few problems here:
1) Like others have said, you didn't factor in the SR+ guarantee from 10-chain pulls.

Shit, that's a thing? Is there any source for that? Since it certainly doesn't tell you ingame. How does it work, the 10th slot is guaranteed to be SR+ despite previous rolls being whatever they are? I think that's how the SSR KH guarantee one works for 50 bucks.

Originally Posted by noxybell

2) You also didn't factor in tickets from various places. You get 1 premium tickets from login bonus per 12 day chunks.

This was factored in, as 300 Gems. Does anyone waste resources on a 80% R quality ticket though...?

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

Your math on jewels is wrong, and I'm not sure why you tried to calculate SR kamihime rates from scratch when I have a publicly-available Gatcha calculator I spent days working that takes into account factors you're ignoring.

Because, let me completely honest, the UI of your spreadsheet is complete and total ass.

Now, I've used some functions of it, and I am grateful. But seriously, at a glance, you can't tell what in the flying F half of the tabs are for. At least the cells which you should be changing are highlighted. Like the "assault and eidolon effects comparison" tab. So, you basically have four different calculators on the same page. Alright, not exactly ideal but since they're kinda related, fair enough. But then look at weapon comparison. Sure, the way you've done it is... extensive, but... wouldn't people usually just want to enter five cells? Weapon 1 damage, weapon 1 assault level (can be split into two cells considering the base bonus of SR and SSR), weapon 2 damage, weapon 2 assault level and how much the rest of the attack is. Much simpler, much faster, much easier for a random person to understand just what the spreadsheet does at a glance.

Again, your current method is extensive since it allows for more than mono-elemental comparison and etc., but.

Anyway, I hadn't looked at Gacha data tab before. That's interesting - so there's HUGE weights in both Eidolons and Kamihime weapons. Supposedly. Doesn't match my Gacha pulls in the slightest (of SSRs, 2 non-KH weapons, 0 Eidolons, 1 KH weapon), but hey, small sample size. Not going to check source on that data, but I hope that the source is huge. And not from rerolling accounts, since god knows if there's weights in place for the first 20 pulls.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

First of all, the expected jewels (15k) you estimated for a player who's been active since day 1 doesn't match actual data. We have an account of a player who claimed he spent 60k jewels in one go, and I myself have accrued somewhere in the neighborhood of 35k (that doesn't include the dozens of harem scenes I haven't watched yet).

Feel free to explain to me the source of these Jewels then. I did mention a few other sources not calculated in, such as the additional login bonus campaigns. Also, raids provide a good chunk - I think each ticket is like 1 Jewel on average? Or was it 0.1 Jewels... I did some rudimentary checking on the droprates from those, but it's buried so deep in logs I can't be bothered to check.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

Finally, your target estimate of the number of SR kamihime a day 1 player would have doesn't match actual outcomes. I've rolled a total of 1x 10-roll (SSR guaranteed) more than a free player would be able to, and I have 17 SR kamihime. -- Obviously that's not anywhere close to your predictions, for the reasons outlined above. And no, the 'RNG' argument doesn't explain every data point that doesn't match your model, sorry.

Aaaactually, if it's just you, then a statistical outlier is very feasible. And I assume you mean 17 gacha SRs, you didn't count Nike and friends and Balor and friends?

Still, since you've spent so much time on your calculator, why don't you just tell me what is the statistical likelyhood of a player having SR Hime? Just throw a ballpark number with reasoning behind on how many Jewels a player would have and then how many SRs is the average person going to get.

Originally Posted by Slashley

Shit, that's a thing? Is there any source for that? Since it certainly doesn't tell you ingame. How does it work

Here

Scroll down to find the reward table. I think it is just a single-use ticket. You may have a chance to get a Raid event-exclusive SR, you may have a chance to get junk.

As for the main arguments, your calculation is off by 2 factors. First, the "additional jewels" sources are not negligible. Some of them can sum up to be around 2000 jewels for a total of 1 set of 12 days. Their typical progression goes like 50, 50, 50, 100, 100......,100, 200, 300, 400. The last 4 days alone is 1000 jewels. Second, your SR and SSR rate is based on your own observation. Granted Nutaku isn't the most honest of a company but they did write their Gacha odds of 3% SSR, 15% SR and 82% R in the Gacha page. Sanahtlig's calculator is based on that, along with bunch of statistical data drawn from actual pulls.

Finally, nobody touched on this yet, but to artificially get a leg up, there is always the starting Re-roll.

wow got my first plat chest ... and its a fcking bow

Originally Posted by AznSamsung

wow got my first plat chest ... and its a fcking bow

I wasted 70 half elixirs and al my natural regen. 0 Platinum chests.

Originally Posted by Slashley

wouldn't people usually just want to enter five cells? Weapon 1 damage, weapon 1 assault level (can be split into two cells considering the base bonus of SR and SSR), weapon 2 damage, weapon 2 assault level and how much the rest of the attack is. Much simpler, much faster, much easier for a random person to understand just what the spreadsheet does at a glance.

The calculator is set up to run simulations with weapons you don't have or don't have at the desired level yet. That's why the linear regression formula for stats based on weapon level is necessary. As for HP, I was planning to compare options to obtain the optimal balance of HP and assault skill (e.g., from eidolon effects and weapon skills). Just haven't gotten around to it because it turned out to be fairly complicated and there's other more useful things I can be working on.

Anyway, I hadn't looked at Gacha data tab before. That's interesting - so there's HUGE weights in both Eidolons and Kamihime weapons. Supposedly. Doesn't match my Gacha pulls in the slightest (of SSRs, 2 non-KH weapons, 0 Eidolons, 1 KH weapon), but hey, small sample size. Not going to check source on that data, but I hope that the source is huge. And not from rerolling accounts, since god knows if there's weights in place for the first 20 pulls.

The category weights for SSRs are largely based on data from two super-whales: over 200 SSRs in all. I take Nutaku's stated rates for rarity at face-value to avoid the statistical issue of high variance in rare events.

Feel free to explain to me the source of these Jewels then.

Does it matter? I have them. I've documented my rolls so I know how many jewels I've spent. Real data with zero variance beats estimates in the evidence hierarchy. In any case, Nutaku does jewel giveaway events regularly. You forgot to factor those in.

And I assume you mean 17 gacha SRs, you didn't count Nike and friends and Balor and friends?

Of course I did. Why wouldn't I? I entered this discussion saying that a player who's been actively playing as long as I have should have a large variety of SR kamihime. Event and story SRs count!

what is the statistical likelyhood of a player having SR Hime

Assuming a player has spent 36k jewels (more than me since I've saved mine), and rolled 40 premium tickets or so, they should have collected ~12 Gatcha SR kamihime (minus duplicates). Add the 4 story SR and 5 raid SR, and that's 21. That doesn't include the special tickets given out in the crossover event, which would likely add a couple more. But as a general rule of thumb, you should expect around 1 SR kamihime per 3k jewels.

Spread equally across the 6 elements (unlikely), that's 3-4 SR kamihime per element. But a savvy player will go with the element with the best kamihime, so they'll likely have a main team with all SR+ kamihime by this point, and likely at least 1 SSR. This is something even someone like HungryHunter could manage, so long as he logged in every day and did his dailies.

Originally Posted by noxybell

Here

Scroll down to find the reward table. I think it is just a single-use ticket. You may have a chance to get a Raid event-exclusive SR, you may have a chance to get junk.

I asked a source for the guaranteed SR from pulling 10 at once. Not sure why you linked a Raid SR ticket, but interesting to know that'll be a thing in the future.

Originally Posted by noxybell

-- First, the "additional jewels" sources are not negligible.--

Well, I don't have access to a list of them, so there was little I could do about it.

Originally Posted by noxybell

Second, your SR and SSR rate is based on your own observation.

The maths was presented in the post. They're based on what the game client reports them as, assuming that there's no weights. Apparently, there are some massive weight attached.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

The calculator is set up to run simulations with weapons you don't have or don't have at the desired level yet. That's why the linear regression formula for stats based on weapon level is necessary. As for HP, I was planning to compare options to obtain the optimal balance of HP and assault skill (e.g., from eidolon effects and weapon skills). Just haven't gotten around to it because it turned out to be fairly complicated and there's other more useful things I can be working on.

There are good sides to complicated. But when you don't properly separate the tools, have tons of different tabs which could be combined... and then you say in threads that ask about Assault weapons "i made a calc use that" ... well, that just makes me facepalm.

There are also times when simplicity is best, and less is more. I'm not saying that you should remove the full version, I'm saying you should rename and combine tabs, overhaul the UI, put simpler and faster to use tools up front. These tools work fine for you, and those who take the time to go over how it all works. If you actually want to make tools - rather than your own notes -
then that's not quite what you want to do.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

Of course I did. Why wouldn't I? I entered this discussion saying that a player who's been actively playing as long as I have should have a large variety of SR kamihime. Event and story SRs count!

I already said my piece on pity SRs, and story ones are no different. They're not at SR powerlevel at all, the best one being Nike for bringing having two tools. Of course, both are really sub-par compared to other similar skills, but hey. You get those tools for free.

So that leaves... 9 SRs? 10 if you count Gabriel as one. Plus your unspent stash.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

Assuming a player has spent 36k jewels (more than me since I've saved mine), and rolled 40 premium tickets or so, they should have collected ~12 Gatcha SR kamihime (minus duplicates).

So, my rough estimate was about half? That's still not particularly impressive considering this is six months, but fair enough.

Originally Posted by Slashley

I asked a source for the guaranteed SR from pulling 10 at once. Not sure why you linked a Raid SR ticket, but interesting to know that'll be a thing in the future.

My bad. I misread that to mean you looking for a source for the Raid SR ticket. Anyway the SR+ guarantee for 10-chain pulls is here: http://xn--hckqz0e9cygq471ahu9b.xn--...83%81%E3%83%A3

Maybe your Jewel gacha SR rate was low because you didn't do 10-chain pulls but instead pulled one by one?

Originally Posted by noxybell

Yes and no. The SSR awakening relies on having the current SSR in her normal form. E.g. if you want an awakened Hades, then you need to have a normal SSR Hades, MLB her, level her to 80, somehow get 3 draconic eye (through exchanges and what not), awaken her, and voila (she is now awakened with new harem scenes, new stats, new skills but at level 1. so you need to MLB her again at drastically increased cost in gem and material).

As for playing long enough, yes that 10 draconic eyes (that's 100 shards) give you a SSR-guaranteed ticket. Still, this only guarantees a SSR, not necessarily SSR hime.

dat's one of the things I struggle to collect due to busy w/ work

haven't completed my first yet since launch

got anotehr close call - Hee Ho

Originally Posted by Slashley

I'm saying you should rename and combine tabs, overhaul the UI, put simpler and faster to use tools up front. These tools work fine for you, and those who take the time to go over how it all works.

While the toolbox is hard to understand for beginner, there's nothing stopping you beside yourself from sending sana a private message asking for clarifications on how the spreadsheet works. In my case, sana has been friendly enough to respond to my questions about the spreadsheet. I dont see why sending a PM asking questions is that difficult