Thread: [Event 32] Crucible of Combat vs The Demon Gluttony (Union Event)

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

This is a mathematical problem with an optimal solution. More options for 'hits' doesn't necessarily equal better odds, as inbetween Cybele and Seth are kamihime of other elements, which can be considered 'misses'. So if the number of misses added is proportionally greater than the number of hits, you're better off rolling earlier.

You can actually calculate all this using the Gatcha calculator in my Toolbox.

Okay, so if I used the correct data...

Desired - odds:
Hastur only - 0.047/chain
Hastur, Cybele, Hraesvelg - 0.057/chain
Seth, Cybele, Hastur, Hreaesvelg - 0.046/chain

Leventale would probably put Gaia on his desired lists and so would have different results.

Originally Posted by Coconut

Okay, so if I used the correct data...

Desired - odds:
Hastur only - 0.047/chain
Hastur, Cybele, Hraesvelg - 0.057/chain
Seth, Cybele, Hastur, Hreaesvelg - 0.046/chain

Leventale would probably put Gaia on his desired lists and so would have different results.

One wrinkle in this is that the calculator assumes that all characters in the same rarity+category tier (i.e., SSR eidolons) have the same base draw rate. With the +100% eidolons, this assumption probably does not hold true; the draw rate for these (assuming you've landed an SSR eidolon) is probably much lower than 1/(total number of SSR eidolons). The draw rate penalty may be as large as an additional 1/5 or 1/10. I currently have no reliable data to estimate the exact penalty, however.

In short, don't include +100% eidolons as a 'hit' or 'miss' if you want a valid result from the calculator. They can only be validly compared amongst themselves right now.