Thread: 2k summons

In those 25k summons they got 3 platinums, for roughly .01% chance, 13 golds (.05%), obviously those were rounded. Black would likely be .001% and thus require 100,000 summons on average to get one lol. 2.38% for silver isn't terrible though, considering how it's infinite tries as you can farm gold infinitely (unless you're in a rush lol)

To actualy give avarage percantages you need to be able to reproduce your results as many times as possible to then make an avarage out of your results. If u draw 3 plats u have 3 results and can only make an avarage out of 3 results which is a failure gap thats ways too big. Its not about how many draws u did, its about how many results you got out of these draws. Even the 13 golds are not enough to give an actualy very accurate percantage (but good enough as it seems). They would need to do 1.000.000 summons to give a actual good avarage of plats, not to speak of blacks. And that might not even be enough.
Also i wouldnt wonder at all if the implemented numbers of chances on daily summon didnt get changed since realese of the game at all. And since Nutaku and DMM Aigis both started the same in term of numbers i wouldnt think theres a difference between versions either, unless DMM changed it recently (which wouldnt matter as the results are older).

Originally Posted by Nero010

To actualy give avarage percantages you need to be able to reproduce your results as many times as possible to then make an avarage out of your results. If u draw 3 plats u have 3 results and can only make an avarage out of 3 results which is a failure gap thats ways too big. Its not about how many draws u did, its about how many results you got out of these draws. Even the 13 golds are not enough to give an actualy very accurate percantage (but good enough as it seems). They would need to do 1.000.000 summons to give a actual good avarage of plats, not to speak of blacks. And that might not even be enough.
Also i wouldnt wonder at all if the implemented numbers of chances on daily summon didnt get changed since realese of the game at all. And since Nutaku and DMM Aigis both started the same in term of numbers i wouldnt think theres a difference between versions either, unless DMM changed it recently (which wouldnt matter as the results are older).

Without hard numbers taken from the code, we'll never have anything but a sample to draw inferences from, regardless of the size. You could argue that even in 1M summons, we might never get a black. Does that mean the chance is 0? Nope, some people have done it apparently (scary good luck, I know). 25k summons is a decent sample size to get a good estimate of the actual chances. Going up to 1M summons for the sake of increased accuracy when ultimately EVERYONE knows "the odds of a black are ridiculously low, don't ever do base summon expecting, or even hoping, for a black. Even platinum is a ridiculous long shot" is kind of wasted effort. The highest unit type people do base summons expecting to get without 1k+ summons is a silver, which is roughly 2-3%

As I said, I know it's mostly academic. just curious. I suppose there is no current effort to gather summon data and I don't care enough to start a joint pool myself. I will probably continue to record my own out of habit and curiosity.

Originally Posted by IvanLedah21

Without hard numbers taken from the code, we'll never have anything but a sample to draw inferences from, regardless of the size. You could argue that even in 1M summons, we might never get a black. Does that mean the chance is 0? Nope, some people have done it apparently (scary good luck, I know). 25k summons is a decent sample size to get a good estimate of the actual chances. Going up to 1M summons for the sake of increased accuracy when ultimately EVERYONE knows "the odds of a black are ridiculously low, don't ever do base summon expecting, or even hoping, for a black. Even platinum is a ridiculous long shot" is kind of wasted effort. The highest unit type people do base summons expecting to get without 1k+ summons is a silver, which is roughly 2-3%

You missunderstood me to some degree^^
The OP wanted to get some more detailed numbers on plats and blacks from base summon, my post just explained why there is no "more accurate" chances for plats or blacks. I was never saying we need, or have to, or should do the by me roughly estimated numbers in order to get an avarage, the opposite is the case, i stated them to say why we dont.

I have to say though that ur not right about ur assumption we´d never could get any "accurate avarages" in theorie which can get actualy pretty close (if not even exactly match) the games percantages. If u repeat something often enough u will close in on its true value infinetly getting closer (until this "infinite" is so small differences are redundant). Practical highly doubtful to be worth the effort but nonetheless not impossible.

Originally Posted by Nero010

You missunderstood me to some degree^^
The OP wanted to get some more detailed numbers on plats and blacks from base summon, my post just explained why there is no "more accurate" chances for plats or blacks. I was never saying we need, or have to, or should do the by me roughly estimated numbers in order to get an avarage, the opposite is the case, i stated them to say why we dont.

I have to say though that ur not right about ur assumption we´d never could get any "accurate avarages" in theorie which can get actualy pretty close (if not even exactly match) the games percantages. If u repeat something often enough u will close in on its true value infinetly getting closer (until this "infinite" is so small differences are redundant). Practical highly doubtful to be worth the effort but nonetheless not impossible.

1st paragraph I'll give to you. 2nd, I said we'll never have anything but a sample to draw inferences from, i.e. estimated numbers. Yes the theory of averages says that as sample size grows larger we'll get closer to the "true value" but I think we're both agreeing that doing so is largely pointless as nobody ever expects anything higher than silver, and the rare lucky gold.

Originally Posted by IvanLedah21

I think we're both agreeing that doing so is largely pointless as nobody ever expects anything higher than silver, and the rare lucky gold.

But I can dream

Thats right^^

And i wish the dream to come true for some of us some day.
But i would be happy with a black from premium summon already xD
Or a gold from base SP Summon :x