Thread: 2k summons

Originally Posted by IvanLedah21

Without hard numbers taken from the code, we'll never have anything but a sample to draw inferences from, regardless of the size. You could argue that even in 1M summons, we might never get a black. Does that mean the chance is 0? Nope, some people have done it apparently (scary good luck, I know). 25k summons is a decent sample size to get a good estimate of the actual chances. Going up to 1M summons for the sake of increased accuracy when ultimately EVERYONE knows "the odds of a black are ridiculously low, don't ever do base summon expecting, or even hoping, for a black. Even platinum is a ridiculous long shot" is kind of wasted effort. The highest unit type people do base summons expecting to get without 1k+ summons is a silver, which is roughly 2-3%

You missunderstood me to some degree^^
The OP wanted to get some more detailed numbers on plats and blacks from base summon, my post just explained why there is no "more accurate" chances for plats or blacks. I was never saying we need, or have to, or should do the by me roughly estimated numbers in order to get an avarage, the opposite is the case, i stated them to say why we dont.

I have to say though that ur not right about ur assumption we´d never could get any "accurate avarages" in theorie which can get actualy pretty close (if not even exactly match) the games percantages. If u repeat something often enough u will close in on its true value infinetly getting closer (until this "infinite" is so small differences are redundant). Practical highly doubtful to be worth the effort but nonetheless not impossible.

Originally Posted by Nero010

You missunderstood me to some degree^^
The OP wanted to get some more detailed numbers on plats and blacks from base summon, my post just explained why there is no "more accurate" chances for plats or blacks. I was never saying we need, or have to, or should do the by me roughly estimated numbers in order to get an avarage, the opposite is the case, i stated them to say why we dont.

I have to say though that ur not right about ur assumption we´d never could get any "accurate avarages" in theorie which can get actualy pretty close (if not even exactly match) the games percantages. If u repeat something often enough u will close in on its true value infinetly getting closer (until this "infinite" is so small differences are redundant). Practical highly doubtful to be worth the effort but nonetheless not impossible.

1st paragraph I'll give to you. 2nd, I said we'll never have anything but a sample to draw inferences from, i.e. estimated numbers. Yes the theory of averages says that as sample size grows larger we'll get closer to the "true value" but I think we're both agreeing that doing so is largely pointless as nobody ever expects anything higher than silver, and the rare lucky gold.

Originally Posted by IvanLedah21

I think we're both agreeing that doing so is largely pointless as nobody ever expects anything higher than silver, and the rare lucky gold.

But I can dream

Thats right^^

And i wish the dream to come true for some of us some day.
But i would be happy with a black from premium summon already xD
Or a gold from base SP Summon :x

I'll just keep expecting a plat/blk and I'm sure I'll get one eventually
I've only done about 10 premium and got Mikoto so I think I've used up my premium luck (I love her)
I haven't done even 1 SP summon because I insist on saving until I can expect at least a gold and a good chance of plat. Got 300 so far.

What's the point in saving them? You could be rolling units that could potentially be helping your team right now, maybe even saving you some fodder that you might otherwise waste on lower tier units. The idea behind chances is you can never "expect" anything. The idiocy prevalent in a lot of the people that play this game in their thinking related to the gacha is ridiculous.

The sole valid reason you could ever give for waiting on SP summons is you particularly need a certain class of silver for AW that you expect more to get added to the game in the near future. (Nenya and Mischa specifically, new story maps, etc.) Otherwise you're just being a superstitious fool.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

What's the point in saving them? You could be rolling units that could potentially be helping your team right now, maybe even saving you some fodder that you might otherwise waste on lower tier units. The idea behind chances is you can never "expect" anything. The idiocy prevalent in a lot of the people that play this game in their thinking related to the gacha is ridiculous.

The sole valid reason you could ever give for waiting on SP summons is you particularly need a certain class of silver for AW that you expect more to get added to the game in the near future. (Nenya and Mischa specifically, new story maps, etc.) Otherwise you're just being a superstitious fool.

Mostly, but not entirely, valid. You miss the point that if you desire a unit that hasn't been released but should be in the coming months, then you might as well save your SCs and wait for their release before rolling.

While your point that you might roll a unit that could help your team, or more fodder for AW, is valid, at the same time you can't expect to roll said fodder (example, if all you need is Witches [ignoring the current event drops them], then you can't expect your summons to get even one). Sure, you're GUARANTEED not to get that fodder via summoning if you don't summon at all, but you could easily end up "wasting" those SCs and then have your desired unit(s) released a few months later and have to build up your SCs again.

Alternatively, if your team is already solid, with all key units AW, there's not really a rush to AW more, is there? Y NOT wait for new units to be introduced before rolling?


TLDR: It's not "idiocy" to save your SCs if you don't need new units or fodder not dropped in current events, it's perfectly valid in such situations to save them and wait for new units to be released (we've already had Jessica (Mage Armor) and now Dark Knights released for new classes, no reason not to expect more new units in the coming months). Granted, anon's wording was sketchy and I'm not entirely sure I understand his last sentence (SP? Do you mean Piece of Crystal? You already said you did about 10 premium summons...)

Originally Posted by Unregistered

What's the point in saving them? You could be rolling units that could potentially be helping your team right now, maybe even saving you some fodder that you might otherwise waste on lower tier units. The idea behind chances is you can never "expect" anything.

Personally, I'm currently hoarding my crystals for the next collection event, which should be giving us a healer. Considering my best healers are AW Iris and AW Fedora, I'm in dire need of a better one. So I could try to roll one of the shrine ones when they next appear in a spotlight, or spend ~50 crystals (probably less) for a perfect event unit. Yes, she will be weaker, but the chances to perfect her are also much higher than the chances of getting a platinum+ healer from the shrine.