Thread: 2k summons

Thought I'd start a new topic instead of necroing an old one
http://harem-battle.club/millennium-...summons-6.html

I know that the wiki has summon rates but I was wondering if anyone was currently collecting stats on 2k summons?
I remember seeing (somewhere) that the summon rates where changed awhile ago. It also seems odd to me that the only stats I'm aware of are old rates from the DMM version. They also don't include (understandably) plat and blk.

I got used to recording my own 2k summons so I currently have 3000, fairly well organized, including dates.

Is there anywhere I can contribute these to a more modern Nutaku based pool? If not is there any other source for 2k summon stats that may be more accurate? (mostly out of curiosity).

I did start recording my summons in the past few months, though I haven't done that many yet (did a couple more to reach the 300 mark for this post). Out of those 300, 9 were silver, so a silver rate of 3%. Nothing higher yet, though obviously a quite small sample.

At 2000 my stats for silver and gold were 2.25 & 0.05 after my last 1000 they shifted to 2.23 & 0.06
almost identical to the wiki's 2.38 & 0.05
but my silver seems to stay lower than theirs and gold can jump around easily without a very high sample size.
My iron is lower and bronze higher by about 3 points each.

I know this is mostly academic and the difference (if any) is small, but by my 3000 sample size their numbers are off and I still want an idea (even if I'll never get one) of plt & blk %.

I think the source of which the wiki has the stats from did at least 10.000 summons as base. The plat and black drops where propably so rare (or not happening) that they cant tell an avarage % for them as they would propably need 100.000 and 1.000.000 summons.

25,000
and it did look like they got 3 platinum but just didn't include the stats in the wiki for some reason? Maybe not a large enough sample for a reliable %? I'm not great with statistics or Japanese so I don't know.

Still these are from 2014 and earlier and from DMM. I would be more surprised to find out they are the same as ours now then not.

In those 25k summons they got 3 platinums, for roughly .01% chance, 13 golds (.05%), obviously those were rounded. Black would likely be .001% and thus require 100,000 summons on average to get one lol. 2.38% for silver isn't terrible though, considering how it's infinite tries as you can farm gold infinitely (unless you're in a rush lol)

To actualy give avarage percantages you need to be able to reproduce your results as many times as possible to then make an avarage out of your results. If u draw 3 plats u have 3 results and can only make an avarage out of 3 results which is a failure gap thats ways too big. Its not about how many draws u did, its about how many results you got out of these draws. Even the 13 golds are not enough to give an actualy very accurate percantage (but good enough as it seems). They would need to do 1.000.000 summons to give a actual good avarage of plats, not to speak of blacks. And that might not even be enough.
Also i wouldnt wonder at all if the implemented numbers of chances on daily summon didnt get changed since realese of the game at all. And since Nutaku and DMM Aigis both started the same in term of numbers i wouldnt think theres a difference between versions either, unless DMM changed it recently (which wouldnt matter as the results are older).

Originally Posted by Nero010

To actualy give avarage percantages you need to be able to reproduce your results as many times as possible to then make an avarage out of your results. If u draw 3 plats u have 3 results and can only make an avarage out of 3 results which is a failure gap thats ways too big. Its not about how many draws u did, its about how many results you got out of these draws. Even the 13 golds are not enough to give an actualy very accurate percantage (but good enough as it seems). They would need to do 1.000.000 summons to give a actual good avarage of plats, not to speak of blacks. And that might not even be enough.
Also i wouldnt wonder at all if the implemented numbers of chances on daily summon didnt get changed since realese of the game at all. And since Nutaku and DMM Aigis both started the same in term of numbers i wouldnt think theres a difference between versions either, unless DMM changed it recently (which wouldnt matter as the results are older).

Without hard numbers taken from the code, we'll never have anything but a sample to draw inferences from, regardless of the size. You could argue that even in 1M summons, we might never get a black. Does that mean the chance is 0? Nope, some people have done it apparently (scary good luck, I know). 25k summons is a decent sample size to get a good estimate of the actual chances. Going up to 1M summons for the sake of increased accuracy when ultimately EVERYONE knows "the odds of a black are ridiculously low, don't ever do base summon expecting, or even hoping, for a black. Even platinum is a ridiculous long shot" is kind of wasted effort. The highest unit type people do base summons expecting to get without 1k+ summons is a silver, which is roughly 2-3%

As I said, I know it's mostly academic. just curious. I suppose there is no current effort to gather summon data and I don't care enough to start a joint pool myself. I will probably continue to record my own out of habit and curiosity.

Originally Posted by IvanLedah21

Without hard numbers taken from the code, we'll never have anything but a sample to draw inferences from, regardless of the size. You could argue that even in 1M summons, we might never get a black. Does that mean the chance is 0? Nope, some people have done it apparently (scary good luck, I know). 25k summons is a decent sample size to get a good estimate of the actual chances. Going up to 1M summons for the sake of increased accuracy when ultimately EVERYONE knows "the odds of a black are ridiculously low, don't ever do base summon expecting, or even hoping, for a black. Even platinum is a ridiculous long shot" is kind of wasted effort. The highest unit type people do base summons expecting to get without 1k+ summons is a silver, which is roughly 2-3%

You missunderstood me to some degree^^
The OP wanted to get some more detailed numbers on plats and blacks from base summon, my post just explained why there is no "more accurate" chances for plats or blacks. I was never saying we need, or have to, or should do the by me roughly estimated numbers in order to get an avarage, the opposite is the case, i stated them to say why we dont.

I have to say though that ur not right about ur assumption we´d never could get any "accurate avarages" in theorie which can get actualy pretty close (if not even exactly match) the games percantages. If u repeat something often enough u will close in on its true value infinetly getting closer (until this "infinite" is so small differences are redundant). Practical highly doubtful to be worth the effort but nonetheless not impossible.