Theorycrafting: The likelihood of drawing SR and SSR kamihime in Gatcha

[sanahtlig]

I've prepared a user-friendly spreadsheet allowing users to manipulate some of the analysis parameters. This will allow users to figure out their chance of getting kamihime in a given number of rolls, and also allow the analysis to be easily updated as the Gatcha is updated in-game.
Sanahtlig's Kamihime Project R Theorycrafting

Explanation of methodology and summary of results

I originally assumed, as did many others, that the likelihood of pulling a kamihime, a non-kamihime weapon, and an eidolon was proportional to the number of possibilities in a given rarity tier. This turned out to be FALSE. The data collected from 1000 rolls show that the rate of pulling a weapon vs. an eidolon is about 50% across all rarity tiers. Conversely, the relative rate of pulling a kamihime (vs. a non-kamihime weapon) increases with increasing rarity (which is offset by the diminishing chance of pulling a given rarity). This unexpected result required the analysis to be redone. I also factored in the guaranteed SR+ on 10-rolls. Note that the SSR rates are based on an insufficient number of data points (11 kamihime draws) and therefore are only approximate (I need 2000 more rolls or 200 10-rolls for the rates to be reliable).

[VortexMagus]

Quick question, I see that your SR formula has 0.15 for the chance of drawing an SR put in, but your SSR formula doesn't have the 0.03 chance of drawing an SSR factored in, no?

[sanahtlig]

Quick question, I see that your SR formula has 0.15 for the chance of drawing an SR put in, but your SSR formula doesn't have the 0.03 chance of drawing an SSR factored in, no?

The SSR equation was a copy/paste of the SR equation, and I forgot to change the necessary numbers (.15 -> 03 and .12 -> .22). I updated it just now. The end result is unchanged.

- - - Updated - - -

I've added a spreadsheet to the OP which summarizes these results and allows users to customize the parameters.

[vysethevaliant]

What bothers me most isn't necessarily the low SSR draw rates (although I'd love it if they were higher), it's that even when we get a guaranteed SSR event (usually through the purchase of Nutaku Gold) that we get a random SSR in the process and not one we can choose for ourselves.

The thing I really enjoyed about Granblue Fantasy, the game Kamihime Project was so heavily inspired from, was the monthly (give-or-take) ticket purchases, where for 3,000 yen you got a ticket redeemable for a ten-pull in-game (that you could use at any time) as well as a ticket, redeemable for seven days after buying the bundle, that you could exchange for any of the current available SSR characters/summons through the in-game gatcha at that specific point. This made grabbing the one character to really finish off your team extremely easy and guaranteed your money wouldn't be wasted. You could even have a chance to get more than the guaranteed ticket SSR through the included ten-pull ticket, but even if you didn't at least they'd know for sure you'd get something out of it.

From what I've read, the way it works in KamiPro is you spend money on the SSR ticket and you get a random one in-return. Not exactly fine, considering very specific character are needed to finish certain teams, and with more characters being added to the gatcha over the coming months it'll be even more difficult going after the one you have your eye on.

I have absolutely no issue spending money on this game, but I'd like some guarantee first that I'm going to get something out of it. Randim SSR tickets, through the purchase of Nutaku Gold, is not a great way to go about things, which is a shame considering the game is essentially a carbon-copy of GBF (except in the one area where it really matters, the gatcha). It doesn't help that in-game currency is extremely limited.

I re-rolled for Sol and have done another 3k pull since then. No other SSR or SR Kamihime, aside from Brynhilldr who's useless for me since I already have Sol (funny how that works out, huh?). I did get a couple SR summons, but those are also meaningless since event SSR summons are so much better (since they're farmable and can fully Limit Break them).

If they don't make it easier to get specific Kamihime, I can see myself losing interest in this game really quickly. It's a shame, since I do enjoy it, but I literally have nothing to work on right now (aside from continuing to Limit Break Sol and unlocking/leveling more Souls). :/

[President Ramu]

I have absolutely no issue spending money on this game, but I'd like some guarantee first that I'm going to get something out of it. Randim SSR tickets, through the purchase of Nutaku Gold, is not a great way to go about things, which is a shame considering the game is essentially a carbon-copy of GBF (except in the one area where it really matters, the gatcha). It doesn't help that in-game currency is extremely limited.

If you don't mind me asking... why do you pay money for this game?

I understand that someone has to do it, and I'm not knocking you for it. I just legitimately don't understand how people throw down money for these sorts of things. Likesay, I've paid money for some cosmetics and some tournament stuff in Dota, but that seems a hell of a lot more useful seeing as I was playing Dota like a fulltime job and the cosmetics were for heroes I played all the time. The stamina system prevents me from playing this as much as I'd like (you know, aside from playing multiple accounts at a time like a crazyperson) so it just doesn't grab me the same way. Let alone with the very real problems you outlined above.

I'm probably one of the most diehard rerollers here, so I get having a strange fascination with the game and putting some time into it. But money seems like a bridge too far considering what we get out of it. I also do some user experience research work professionally, so I'm kind of baffled by how people pay so much into these sorts of things for (what seems to me) not much return.

This question's to anybody who happens to read it as well, I'm just generally curious. Thanks folks.

[naenae]

If you don't mind me asking... why do you pay money for this game?

I understand that someone has to do it, and I'm not knocking you for it. I just legitimately don't understand how people throw down money for these sorts of things. Likesay, I've paid money for some cosmetics and some tournament stuff in Dota, but that seems a hell of a lot more useful seeing as I was playing Dota like a fulltime job and the cosmetics were for heroes I played all the time. The stamina system prevents me from playing this as much as I'd like (you know, aside from playing multiple accounts at a time like a crazyperson) so it just doesn't grab me the same way. Let alone with the very real problems you outlined above.

I'm probably one of the most diehard rerollers here, so I get having a strange fascination with the game and putting some time into it. But money seems like a bridge too far considering what we get out of it. I also do some user experience research work professionally, so I'm kind of baffled by how people pay so much into these sorts of things for (what seems to me) not much return.

This question's to anybody who happens to read it as well, I'm just generally curious. Thanks folks.

The answer to this one is simple. I have no life, no girlfriend, and don't really want either. What else am I supposed to do with an extra 20 bucks every couple weeks? Usually I just like to get a new rainbow flower girl occasionally but after kamihime came out my interest in that game has dropped considerably.

[VortexMagus]

If you don't mind me asking... why do you pay money for this game?

I understand that someone has to do it, and I'm not knocking you for it. I just legitimately don't understand how people throw down money for these sorts of things. Likesay, I've paid money for some cosmetics and some tournament stuff in Dota, but that seems a hell of a lot more useful seeing as I was playing Dota like a fulltime job and the cosmetics were for heroes I played all the time. The stamina system prevents me from playing this as much as I'd like (you know, aside from playing multiple accounts at a time like a crazyperson) so it just doesn't grab me the same way. Let alone with the very real problems you outlined above.

I'm probably one of the most diehard rerollers here, so I get having a strange fascination with the game and putting some time into it. But money seems like a bridge too far considering what we get out of it. I also do some user experience research work professionally, so I'm kind of baffled by how people pay so much into these sorts of things for (what seems to me) not much return.

This question's to anybody who happens to read it as well, I'm just generally curious. Thanks folks.

The sad thing is, 6 hours or so of rerolling for 2 or 3 ssr characters at the start is basically the equivalent of spending hundreds of dollars in this game - at 30$ per 10 draws and 3% for SSR a draw, those are some expensive as fuck characters. Probably better off just writing a script to reroll for you rather than paying actual money into this game for something that isn't guaranteed.

[President Ramu]

The sad thing is, 6 hours or so of rerolling for 2 or 3 ssr characters at the start is basically the equivalent of spending hundreds of dollars in this game - at 30$ per 10 draws and 3% for SSR a draw, those are some expensive as fuck characters. Probably better off just writing a script to reroll for you rather than paying actual money into this game for something that isn't guaranteed.

Exactly. I could easily write a program to just reroll in multiple windows and save the "good" rolls into a spreadsheet or something, but... who would I even sell them to? It stands to reason that I should be able to get 5 bucks at least for a 2 SSR account, but that sounds nuts if you actually tried to charge someone for it. Yet people are willing to risk it on the gacha for some reason.

[naenae]

I swear to god Nutaku just gave me the finger. I got two ssr weapons in the premium gacha less than a minute ago. Both are Snowy Staff of Nibelheim. No kami comes with it. Fuck you nutaku, fuck you indeed.

[President Ramu]

I swear to god Nutaku just gave me the finger. I got two ssr weapons in the premium gacha less than a minute ago. Both are Snowy Staff of Nibelheim. No kami comes with it. Fuck you nutaku, fuck you indeed.

On my first account I've gotten Artemis 3 times. Once each time I've pulled the jewel gacha.