Thread: Theorycrafting: The likelihood of drawing SR and SSR kamihime in Gatcha

Originally Posted by vysethevaliant

I have absolutely no issue spending money on this game, but I'd like some guarantee first that I'm going to get something out of it. Randim SSR tickets, through the purchase of Nutaku Gold, is not a great way to go about things, which is a shame considering the game is essentially a carbon-copy of GBF (except in the one area where it really matters, the gatcha). It doesn't help that in-game currency is extremely limited.

If you don't mind me asking... why do you pay money for this game?

I understand that someone has to do it, and I'm not knocking you for it. I just legitimately don't understand how people throw down money for these sorts of things. Likesay, I've paid money for some cosmetics and some tournament stuff in Dota, but that seems a hell of a lot more useful seeing as I was playing Dota like a fulltime job and the cosmetics were for heroes I played all the time. The stamina system prevents me from playing this as much as I'd like (you know, aside from playing multiple accounts at a time like a crazyperson) so it just doesn't grab me the same way. Let alone with the very real problems you outlined above.

I'm probably one of the most diehard rerollers here, so I get having a strange fascination with the game and putting some time into it. But money seems like a bridge too far considering what we get out of it. I also do some user experience research work professionally, so I'm kind of baffled by how people pay so much into these sorts of things for (what seems to me) not much return.

This question's to anybody who happens to read it as well, I'm just generally curious. Thanks folks.

Originally Posted by President Ramu

If you don't mind me asking... why do you pay money for this game?

I understand that someone has to do it, and I'm not knocking you for it. I just legitimately don't understand how people throw down money for these sorts of things. Likesay, I've paid money for some cosmetics and some tournament stuff in Dota, but that seems a hell of a lot more useful seeing as I was playing Dota like a fulltime job and the cosmetics were for heroes I played all the time. The stamina system prevents me from playing this as much as I'd like (you know, aside from playing multiple accounts at a time like a crazyperson) so it just doesn't grab me the same way. Let alone with the very real problems you outlined above.

I'm probably one of the most diehard rerollers here, so I get having a strange fascination with the game and putting some time into it. But money seems like a bridge too far considering what we get out of it. I also do some user experience research work professionally, so I'm kind of baffled by how people pay so much into these sorts of things for (what seems to me) not much return.

This question's to anybody who happens to read it as well, I'm just generally curious. Thanks folks.

The answer to this one is simple. I have no life, no girlfriend, and don't really want either. What else am I supposed to do with an extra 20 bucks every couple weeks? Usually I just like to get a new rainbow flower girl occasionally but after kamihime came out my interest in that game has dropped considerably.

Originally Posted by President Ramu

If you don't mind me asking... why do you pay money for this game?

I understand that someone has to do it, and I'm not knocking you for it. I just legitimately don't understand how people throw down money for these sorts of things. Likesay, I've paid money for some cosmetics and some tournament stuff in Dota, but that seems a hell of a lot more useful seeing as I was playing Dota like a fulltime job and the cosmetics were for heroes I played all the time. The stamina system prevents me from playing this as much as I'd like (you know, aside from playing multiple accounts at a time like a crazyperson) so it just doesn't grab me the same way. Let alone with the very real problems you outlined above.

I'm probably one of the most diehard rerollers here, so I get having a strange fascination with the game and putting some time into it. But money seems like a bridge too far considering what we get out of it. I also do some user experience research work professionally, so I'm kind of baffled by how people pay so much into these sorts of things for (what seems to me) not much return.

This question's to anybody who happens to read it as well, I'm just generally curious. Thanks folks.

The sad thing is, 6 hours or so of rerolling for 2 or 3 ssr characters at the start is basically the equivalent of spending hundreds of dollars in this game - at 30$ per 10 draws and 3% for SSR a draw, those are some expensive as fuck characters. Probably better off just writing a script to reroll for you rather than paying actual money into this game for something that isn't guaranteed.

Originally Posted by VortexMagus

The sad thing is, 6 hours or so of rerolling for 2 or 3 ssr characters at the start is basically the equivalent of spending hundreds of dollars in this game - at 30$ per 10 draws and 3% for SSR a draw, those are some expensive as fuck characters. Probably better off just writing a script to reroll for you rather than paying actual money into this game for something that isn't guaranteed.

Exactly. I could easily write a program to just reroll in multiple windows and save the "good" rolls into a spreadsheet or something, but... who would I even sell them to? It stands to reason that I should be able to get 5 bucks at least for a 2 SSR account, but that sounds nuts if you actually tried to charge someone for it. Yet people are willing to risk it on the gacha for some reason.

I swear to god Nutaku just gave me the finger. I got two ssr weapons in the premium gacha less than a minute ago. Both are Snowy Staff of Nibelheim. No kami comes with it. Fuck you nutaku, fuck you indeed.

Originally Posted by naenae

I swear to god Nutaku just gave me the finger. I got two ssr weapons in the premium gacha less than a minute ago. Both are Snowy Staff of Nibelheim. No kami comes with it. Fuck you nutaku, fuck you indeed.

On my first account I've gotten Artemis 3 times. Once each time I've pulled the jewel gacha.

Stupid Q: gem gatcha is for N and R or have some chances to roll SR something?

Originally Posted by Dragonlich

Stupid Q: gem gatcha is for N and R or have some chances to roll SR something?

It was answered before. Gem gacha is only N and R (right now there is 6 R kamihimes in it: Boreas (wind), Rusalka (water), Nergal (fire), Urania (light), Indria (lightning) and Perun (lightning))

And if it will follow jp version (almost guaranteed that it will) then later there will be 6 more rares: Baphomet (fire), Zephyrus (wind), Undine (water), Astaroth (dark), Mephistopheles (dark) and Orpheus (light).

Ok back on topic, I had some free time so I decided to collect some more data for OP.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h50CB6M2Z8uo0DuxX9rgWnhhfceIhO2LjzOz_0zh3Ns/edit#gid=698248666

Originally Posted by Lothario

Ok back on topic, I had some free time so I decided to collect some more data for OP.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h50CB6M2Z8uo0DuxX9rgWnhhfceIhO2LjzOz_0zh3Ns/edit#gid=698248666

Good job. I used this data to calculate the category rates for SRs. My full calculations are available in the spreadsheet linked in the OP.


Based on this data from 1000 rolls (100 10-rolls), we can conclude with high confidence that category weights differ by rarity tier. While R kamihime are observed at a frequency that resembles what would be expected with no weights at all, SR kamihime are far more likely to be drawn than lone SR weapons, and SR eidolons are also drawn at a higher frequency than their share of total SR possibilities would suggest. This confirms that the Gatcha rates provided in-game are incomplete because they give no information about the relative likelihood of pulling kamihime vs. eidolons vs. weapons.

Given data from 200 more 10-rolls, I can determine the category weights for SSRs, giving us a full picture of Gatcha rates that should remain accurate even as more Gatcha items are added in future updates. This is information that Nutaku should've provided to users to begin with, but has chosen to withhold. These rolls can come from any combination of users over any period of time, so long as you decide to document and report the roll before you see the results.