Thread: Festival Girls Issue

Yeah, the RNG is absolute bullshit. Here's the thing - if a girl drop is actually 0.1% like people are saying, that means that, if you don't pay koban for it, you will get a new girl once every two weeks - if you fight the trolls every twenty minutes, 24/7. A 3x boost should in theory make that every five days - again, assuming you do not sleep. I'd give you more numbers but I need to go.

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Yeah, the RNG is absolute bullshit. Here's the thing - if a girl drop is actually 0.1% like people are saying, that means that, if you don't pay koban for it, you will get a new girl once every two weeks - if you fight the trolls every twenty minutes, 24/7. A 3x boost should in theory make that every five days - again, assuming you do not sleep. I'd give you more numbers but I need to go.

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Same as last guy, got time to math.

So, let's say you actually do sleep, because you are actually human. And let's say you get 8 hours a night, and that you spend all day everyday playing this game. On a typical day - as opposed to a festival event - you spend 16 hours farming trolls. That's 48 fights a day, not counting the runoff fights you get because you actually have to sleep and are a loser because you aren't a mindless robot/the dev team's ATM.

At that rate, with a 0.1% drop rate, you will get a girl once every THREE weeks, based on probability alone. With a 3x modifier, that might actually give you a chance at both girls - you should get one a week at that rate - but that assumes that 1) you actually are able to keep attacking trolls every 20 minutes, and 2) that the RNG biases out used numbers. It does not.

That's why a 3x multiplier is useless - the rates are too low for the average player to actually get anything. It's not "Oh, you didn't get both girls? How unfortunate for you, sucker." If you got both girls and it wasn't by the skin of your ballsack, you are a statistical anomaly.

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Yeah, the RNG is absolute bullshit. Here's the thing - if a girl drop is actually 0.1% like people are saying, that means that, if you don't pay koban for it, you will get a new girl once every two weeks - if you fight the trolls every twenty minutes, 24/7. A 3x boost should in theory make that every five days - again, assuming you do not sleep. I'd give you more numbers but I need to go.

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Got time to math.

So, let's say you actually do sleep, because you are actually human. And let's say you get 8 hours a night, and that you spend all day everyday playing this game. On a typical day - as opposed to a festival event - you spend 16 hours farming trolls. That's 48 fights a day, not counting the runoff fights you get because you actually have to sleep and are a loser because you aren't a mindless robot/the dev team's ATM.

At that rate, with a 0.1% drop rate, you will get a girl once every THREE weeks, based on probability alone. With a 3x modifier, that might actually give you a chance at both girls - you should get one a week at that rate - but that assumes that 1) you actually are able to keep attacking trolls every 20 minutes, and 2) that the RNG biases out used numbers. It does not.

That's why a 3x multiplier is useless - the rates are too low for the average player to actually get anything. It's not "Oh, you didn't get both girls? How unfortunate for you, sucker." If you got both girls and it wasn't by the skin of your ballsack, you are a statistical anomaly.

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Fuck it, I give up trying to edit this shit.

Originally Posted by Anonymous

At that rate, with a 0.1% drop rate, you will get a girl once every THREE weeks, based on probability alone. With a 3x modifier, that might actually give you a chance at both girls - you should get one a week at that rate - but that assumes that 1) you actually are able to keep attacking trolls every 20 minutes, and

So I guess it's not 0.1% then. Every event I get both event girls and one or two regulars, and I probably get 16 "hours" of play in per day (I check in every hour or two and blast through whatever saved fight points I've got).

Originally Posted by Anonymous

2) that the RNG biases out used numbers. It does not.

What does this even mean? It makes no sense.

Originally Posted by BgSt

So I guess it's not 0.1% then. Every event I get both event girls and one or two regulars, and I probably get 16 "hours" of play in per day (I check in every hour or two and blast through whatever saved fight points I've got).



What does this even mean? It makes no sense.

It means that if the RNG generates a value, that the system reduces (or removes) the chance for that value to come up again until all values have come out at least once. But that is not something the drop system in this game does.

Originally Posted by soviras

It means that if the RNG generates a value, that the system reduces (or removes) the chance for that value to come up again until all values have come out at least once. But that is not something the drop system in this game does.

That's not how it works. Say for the sake of argument there's a 0.1% chance of a drop, and mt_getrandmax() is 2147483647. You call mt_rand() and if the result is < (2147483647/1000) then a girl drops. If you want to increase the chance of a drop you don't go "oh mt_rand() returned 9823625 I'll remember that number and if mt_rand() returns that again I'll get a new random number instead" you just increase the probability.

Originally Posted by BgSt

That's not how it works. Say for the sake of argument there's a 0.1% chance of a drop, and mt_getrandmax() is 2147483647. You call mt_rand() and if the result is < (2147483647/1000) then a girl drops. If you want to increase the chance of a drop you don't go "oh mt_rand() returned 9823625 I'll remember that number and if mt_rand() returns that again I'll get a new random number instead" you just increase the probability.

It isn't something this game does, but it's quite a common thing. In systems that do use that, a 0.1% chance would be guaranteed to happen within every full set (assuming the sets size is 1000, then it would happen exactly once), but it would be at a random place in the set. This also has a very different effect compared to just increasing the probability, as it also limits the max amount of something you can have in a row. It's very important to have that kind of behavior in certain cases, like when simulating a deck of cards on the go. Also, both me and the other guy said the game doesn't do that, so I don't know why you're trying to argue that it doesn't do that...

If it's highter, say 0.25 then tripling that would be 0.75% - so somewhere around what 133 to start getting insanly unlikely no to have gotten one

Given the observed drop rates I'd say it is around 0.1% - 0.2%, and yes that's too low

In the end I didn't get any event girl to drop. :'(

So out of frustration I did the math going with greetingz numbers.

Originally Posted by greetingz

There was nothing wrong, A 0.1% X 3 = 0.3% it's still minimal. 3‰ means 3 in 1000. But that resets per each fight. It doesn't increase the more you fight. It's a dice roll to basicly roll 1000 6's in a row.

According you played for about 13 hours a day, fighting bosses religiously so your stamina bar never fills up: Your chances of getting the two girls at the end of the event were: 50 %.

That's... quite low for such commitment to say the least. And if you wanted to be sure to get all the drop girls using stamina refills you'd have had to spend 5000 kobans, that's two koban trucks and that's.... 200€or 222$. Which teaches us that that devs don't want you to get the girls from bosses at all, hence why boss droppable event girls are available in epic pachinko.

So basically if you want to be sure to get all the event girls that's 250€ 277$ through pachinko to be sure.(presuming you have all the story girls)

Two weeks commitment for a coin toss, 277$ for a two weeks event, you're the judges.

If an RNG biases out a used number, that means that, whenever the game generates a random number, that number will not be used again until a certain point, for example, when every other number gets used.

So for example, in a standard deck of cards, you have a 1/52 chance of drawing the Ace of Spades. You draw a card, it's the 3 of Clubs, and then put it in the discard pile. You've therefore biased out the 3 of Clubs, increasing your chance on the next draw of getting the Ace of Spades to 1/51.

This principle is how a pity counter would work, but it's not how the drop rate for girls does - it's more like rolling dice - there's 1,000 faces and on exactly one face, you get a girl. There's no bias towards any given face - you could conceivably roll the same number 1,000 times in a row and thus "win" a thousand Buff T-shirts in a row and nothing prevents the RNG from doing that.