Thread: Theorycrafting: The likelihood of drawing SR and SSR kamihime in Gatcha

Originally Posted by VortexMagus

The sad thing is, 6 hours or so of rerolling for 2 or 3 ssr characters at the start is basically the equivalent of spending hundreds of dollars in this game - at 30$ per 10 draws and 3% for SSR a draw, those are some expensive as fuck characters. Probably better off just writing a script to reroll for you rather than paying actual money into this game for something that isn't guaranteed.

Exactly. I could easily write a program to just reroll in multiple windows and save the "good" rolls into a spreadsheet or something, but... who would I even sell them to? It stands to reason that I should be able to get 5 bucks at least for a 2 SSR account, but that sounds nuts if you actually tried to charge someone for it. Yet people are willing to risk it on the gacha for some reason.

I swear to god Nutaku just gave me the finger. I got two ssr weapons in the premium gacha less than a minute ago. Both are Snowy Staff of Nibelheim. No kami comes with it. Fuck you nutaku, fuck you indeed.

Originally Posted by naenae

I swear to god Nutaku just gave me the finger. I got two ssr weapons in the premium gacha less than a minute ago. Both are Snowy Staff of Nibelheim. No kami comes with it. Fuck you nutaku, fuck you indeed.

On my first account I've gotten Artemis 3 times. Once each time I've pulled the jewel gacha.

Stupid Q: gem gatcha is for N and R or have some chances to roll SR something?

Originally Posted by Dragonlich

Stupid Q: gem gatcha is for N and R or have some chances to roll SR something?

It was answered before. Gem gacha is only N and R (right now there is 6 R kamihimes in it: Boreas (wind), Rusalka (water), Nergal (fire), Urania (light), Indria (lightning) and Perun (lightning))

And if it will follow jp version (almost guaranteed that it will) then later there will be 6 more rares: Baphomet (fire), Zephyrus (wind), Undine (water), Astaroth (dark), Mephistopheles (dark) and Orpheus (light).

Ok back on topic, I had some free time so I decided to collect some more data for OP.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h50CB6M2Z8uo0DuxX9rgWnhhfceIhO2LjzOz_0zh3Ns/edit#gid=698248666

Originally Posted by Lothario

Ok back on topic, I had some free time so I decided to collect some more data for OP.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h50CB6M2Z8uo0DuxX9rgWnhhfceIhO2LjzOz_0zh3Ns/edit#gid=698248666

Good job. I used this data to calculate the category rates for SRs. My full calculations are available in the spreadsheet linked in the OP.


Based on this data from 1000 rolls (100 10-rolls), we can conclude with high confidence that category weights differ by rarity tier. While R kamihime are observed at a frequency that resembles what would be expected with no weights at all, SR kamihime are far more likely to be drawn than lone SR weapons, and SR eidolons are also drawn at a higher frequency than their share of total SR possibilities would suggest. This confirms that the Gatcha rates provided in-game are incomplete because they give no information about the relative likelihood of pulling kamihime vs. eidolons vs. weapons.

Given data from 200 more 10-rolls, I can determine the category weights for SSRs, giving us a full picture of Gatcha rates that should remain accurate even as more Gatcha items are added in future updates. This is information that Nutaku should've provided to users to begin with, but has chosen to withhold. These rolls can come from any combination of users over any period of time, so long as you decide to document and report the roll before you see the results.

I'd collect more data once the event is over, also I'd love to find out more regarding the rate up with certain kamihimes as well. At the time the data was collected, it was shown that Amaterasu/Acala/Ifrit had a higher pull rate but out of the 100, I did not get any of them

I've updated the OP with the results of my analysis. Updates include:

1. Incorporation of data from 1000 rolls to empirically determine category rates (kamihime vs. non-kamihime weapon vs. eidolon).
2. Factoring in the guaranteed SR+ in 10-rolls.
3. Added an estimate of the total # of kamihime of a given rarity one could expect from N 10-rolls.

The results should now be robust for R and SR, and approximate for SSR.

Sanahtlig's Kamihime Project R Theorycrafting