Thread: Theorycrafting: The likelihood of drawing SR and SSR kamihime in Gatcha

I sent a ticket to Nutaku Game Support (Kamihime Project R, sub-category Gatcha), reading as follows:

Could you provide a breakdown of the likelihood of drawing a kamihime vs. a weapon with no kamihime vs. an eidolon in the Premium Gatcha? If it varies by rarity (R, SR, SSR), then please provide the rates for SSR.

I intend to share this response publicly to inform users considering spending on Premium Gatcha. Thank you for taking the time to respond to this important question.

recorded 20 rolls so far if you need that info

weapons
ssr 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sr 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
r 3 2 3 1 2 4 6 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 5 1 3 2 5 4

hime
ssr 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
sr 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 1 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 3 0 1 0
r 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 1 4 1 2 1 0

summon
ssr 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sr 0 1 1 0 1 0 4 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 2 1
r 1 4 4 6 4 3 0 5 6 4 3 4 4 4 2 3 3 4 1 4

1 row= 1 3k jewel roll

Originally Posted by felix

recorded 20 rolls so far if you need that info

weapons
ssr 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sr 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
r 3 2 3 1 2 4 6 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 5 1 3 2 5 4

hime
ssr 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
sr 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 1 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 3 0 1 0
r 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 1 4 1 2 1 0

summon
ssr 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sr 0 1 1 0 1 0 4 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 2 1
r 1 4 4 6 4 3 0 5 6 4 3 4 4 4 2 3 3 4 1 4

1 row= 1 3k jewel roll

This is excellent. With this data, I crunched some numbers, and came to the following conclusions based on the R data only (the number of events for the others was too low for consideration). My full calculations are available in the spreadsheet linked in the OP.

1. Every possibility among kamihime, non-kamihime weapon, and eidolon is NOT equally likely.
2. Eidolons are much more frequent draws than expected. Non-kamihime weapon draws are less frequent. Kamihime draws may be somewhat more frequent (difference is small and may be insignificant).

Without more data, I cannot determine if the same category rates apply to SR or SSR draws. I need 30 events in each category for proper statistical testing, or about 100 10-rolls for SR.

Meanwhile, a few days ago, Granblue Fantasy had a free daily 10 time premium draw, free guarantee SSR/SR ticket and free premium currency to celebrate their 3rd birthday anniversary. It makes me wonder if Nutaku would be do the same. I like how they allow oversea players to play japanese server with english translation, so that they would able to enjoy the same content as japanese players. I personally think that Grandblue Fantasy is a better alternative as Cygames has good reputation in Japan and the West.

Secondly, their games like Shadowverse is also one of the most popular game on steam.(Although the western version has censorship but thankfully can be solved with uncensor patch.) They often give away free cards when they release a new content or reached a new milestones.

If I'm going to compare Nutaku and Cygames in terms of free to play games, I think the latter are better.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Meanwhile, a few days ago, Granblue Fantasy had a free daily 10 time premium draw, free guarantee SSR/SR ticket and free premium currency to celebrate their 3rd birthday anniversary. It makes me wonder if Nutaku would be do the same. I like how they allow oversea players to play japanese server with english translation, so that they would able to enjoy the same content as japanese players. I personally think that Grandblue Fantasy is a better alternative as Cygames has good reputation in Japan and the West.

Secondly, their games like Shadowverse is also one of the most popular game on steam.(Although the western version has censorship but thankfully can be solved with uncensor patch.) They often give away free cards when they release a new content or reached a new milestones.

If I'm going to compare Nutaku and Cygames in terms of free to play games, I think the latter are better.

It may or may not come in the future. Honestly Granblue is a giant compared to the tiny Kamihime. Ofc they don't lose much by give things out for free.

And technically, you can do the free 10 premium draw. All you have to do is collect the tickets from login bonus and events.

Originally Posted by nazrin992

Honestly Granblue is a giant compared to the tiny Kamihime. Ofc they don't lose much by give things out for free.

Do you have a solid evidence to prove that Granblue is giant to Kamihime?

Originally Posted by nazrin992

And technically, you can do the free 10 premium draw. All you have to do is collect the tickets from login bonus and events.

Does free 10 premium draw guarantee a SR/SSR kamihime/eidolon? The free birthday Grandblue event allows you to do that. Granblue also give free ticket just by logging in.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

Do you have a solid evidence to prove that Granblue is giant to Kamihime?



Does free 10 premium draw guarantee a SR/SSR kamihime/eidolon? The free birthday Grandblue event allows you to do that. Granblue also give free ticket just by logging in.

I'm pretty sure that Granblue Fantasy is more well-known worldwide compared to Kamihime which is hentai game first and foremost.

And with your reply to second quote, you lose me. Do you even play the game?