Thread: Theorycrafting: The likelihood of drawing SR and SSR kamihime in Gatcha

Originally Posted by felix

recorded 20 rolls so far if you need that info

weapons
ssr 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sr 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
r 3 2 3 1 2 4 6 2 2 2 1 3 3 2 5 1 3 2 5 4

hime
ssr 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
sr 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 1 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 3 0 1 0
r 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 1 4 1 2 1 0

summon
ssr 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
sr 0 1 1 0 1 0 4 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 2 1
r 1 4 4 6 4 3 0 5 6 4 3 4 4 4 2 3 3 4 1 4

1 row= 1 3k jewel roll

This is excellent. With this data, I crunched some numbers, and came to the following conclusions based on the R data only (the number of events for the others was too low for consideration). My full calculations are available in the spreadsheet linked in the OP.

1. Every possibility among kamihime, non-kamihime weapon, and eidolon is NOT equally likely.
2. Eidolons are much more frequent draws than expected. Non-kamihime weapon draws are less frequent. Kamihime draws may be somewhat more frequent (difference is small and may be insignificant).

Without more data, I cannot determine if the same category rates apply to SR or SSR draws. I need 30 events in each category for proper statistical testing, or about 100 10-rolls for SR.