Originally Posted by flink

From my records (376 runs on the different story maps) we are close to 40% Raid Boss, 40% SG, and 20% nothing.

OK, well if we assume 40% spawn rate...
12-3: 35 Stamina x 2.5 (40% = 2.5 runs per spawn) = 87.5 + 80 (SG) = 167.5 Stamina on average for 3 chests with a 31.25% chance of a 4th (5 squads trying to win 4 RNG rolls in a row). All 4 chests are either level 20 or 100. For argument's sake, let's say you get 1 100 and 2-3 20s.

Compare that to:
Flat 80 stamina Advanced daily. Default setup gives you 3 shots at the top chest, two shots at the bottom right chest, and 5 shots at the middle chest (last chest is guaranteed).
Top chest: 87.5% (12.5% chance all 3 squads on top route will miss it)
Bottom Right chest: 55% (45% chance both squads will miss it, since there are 3 possible routes on that RNG node)
Middle Chest: 94.375% (5.625% chance all 5 squads will miss it)
You're pretty much guaranteed 2 chests, 3 very likely. However, level 5s are present, and also prevalent.
For argument's sake, let's assume Advanced daily has a 10% level 100, 40% level 20 and 50% level 5 (roughly accurate from what I've seen) and we get 7 chests every 2 runs (since the SG strat requires 167, we get 2 daily runs in)
Without bonus chest: .7 level 100s, 2.8 level 20s, 3.5 level 5s
With bonus chest: .9 level 100s, 3.6 level 20s, 4.5 level 5s


The manyu daily is better for leveling girls of those two colors. However, it gives crap for player XP, gold and no ampy chance if you're trying to get those too. The price you pay for focusing on a single goal (leveling 2 types of girls).

Disclaimer: the % chance of each chest should be accurate, however the drop rates are semi-arbitrarily decided based on personal experience. They should be roughly within the vicinity of the true rates, but feel free to insert your own rates.