Originally Posted by Unregistered

The first squad isn't a coin flip, it goes the 'correct' direction. The 2nd squad is a flip.

See, that's the part I didn't think of. The first squad has a 100% chance to go either direction, and the second squad has a 50% chance to go the remaining direction. In other words, when two squads are faced with a fork, it's always a 50% of getting both paths.

In my earlier messy post, I wrote each fork as a 0,5 * 0,5 = 0,25, when really it should be 1 * 0,5 = 0,5. Not like there's a 25% chance of getting both paths in a two-way fork, lol.. Anyway, that's why I thought it was 6 flips earlier. ^^;