Didn't get any gold or rainbow for last three 10+1 pulls. Haven't had new girls in a months (event girls don't count). It's kinda frustrating...

Originally Posted by hypo

Tried the event gatch, could have been better but it's always nice to have a new unit, also a dupe to unlock her 4th slot

Attachment 7949

congrats!

since we got extra 5 FG, I finallu reached 50 FG

gave it a roll, damn my luck LOL

I haven't taken statistics in years, but I believe the odds to get at least 1 gold or rainbow girl on an 11 pull is 1-0.935^11=52.255%. Is my math right?

Originally Posted by durrem

I haven't taken statistics in years, but I believe the odds to get at least 1 gold or rainbow girl on an 11 pull is 1-0.935^11=52.255%. Is my math right?

See you are correct, but there is actually a small issue with that. Actually there are 2 and I can go through and explain them but I will save you the math.

The first issue, which is true for statistics in general, is that the 50% chance is only true over very large data sets. Thus everyone's individual rolls are not going to be true for that, by a long shot. Especially for the fact that rainbows are a 0.5% chance. You would need to pull gacha 1057 times to even start to get a good approximation (just trust the math, I rather not explain how you get the number).

The other issue is how computers get random numbers, idk if this actually applies to fkg, but numbers are actually only psudeo-random. If FKG actually uses truly random methods, power to them, but because of how expensive these methods can be do to enact I highly doubt it. In essence the number that precedes a value can actually influence the number that comes after. The effect is minor and would require you to have a detailed understanding of how RNG tables are actually generated to understand. In the short term, we do not notice this because the effect is minor as I noted, but does help explain how people can go over 400 pulls without a rainbow when some people get them almost every other pull. As a hint, if this is true, pulling directly after you see someone get a rainbow, would probably not be the best idea, although we are talking an effect that is really only a .05-0.1% deviation over the course of 1000's of pulls.

Yeh a lot of the whole 'pseudo' RNG debate is pointless

Ultimately it's frickin' close enough that unless you're nitpicky it is the same - unless you're dealing in precision like casinos - a pseudoRNG is more then accurate enough, if it deviates by 0.1% i's still close enough

...and having experienced the 11 x 3* draw I know how capricious the darn thing can be, but having more then my fair share of rainbow YOLO pulls I can't complain

Originally Posted by JellyWoW

The first issue, which is true for statistics in general, is that the 50% chance is only true over very large data sets. Thus everyone's individual rolls are not going to be true for that, by a long shot. Especially for the fact that rainbows are a 0.5% chance. You would need to pull gacha 1057 times to even start to get a good approximation (just trust the math, I rather not explain how you get the number).

What you're saying might be true or might be bull**** depending on what you mean. There is an approximate 52.226% chance on any set of 11 draws that at least one is a gold or rainbow. This is immutable fact so long as the chances provided are accurate representations of the actual chances to draw gold or rainbow. It is true that you'll only observe that over a large data set, but every 11-roll will have that chance of at least one gold or rainbow.

Though it's hardly impossible to go 33 draws without seeing either - there's still ~11% chance to not get any at that point.

Its supposed to mean chances are not something you should count on in the short term...

Originally Posted by JellyWoW

Its supposed to mean chances are not something you should count on in the short term...

Unless you are in good graces with the Twin Goddesses of Luck and Chance... then anything is possible.

You would think those two beautiful women would win out over RNGesus but from experience it looks like RNGesus does not play fair and recruits Murphy with his law and Irony as well just to screw us over.... that's 3 vs 2... unfair odds I say!

Originally Posted by JellyWoW

See you are correct, but there is actually a small issue with that. Actually there are 2 and I can go through and explain them but I will save you the math.

The first issue, which is true for statistics in general, is that the 50% chance is only true over very large data sets. Thus everyone's individual rolls are not going to be true for that, by a long shot. Especially for the fact that rainbows are a 0.5% chance. You would need to pull gacha 1057 times to even start to get a good approximation (just trust the math, I rather not explain how you get the number).

The other issue is how computers get random numbers, idk if this actually applies to fkg, but numbers are actually only psudeo-random. If FKG actually uses truly random methods, power to them, but because of how expensive these methods can be do to enact I highly doubt it. In essence the number that precedes a value can actually influence the number that comes after. The effect is minor and would require you to have a detailed understanding of how RNG tables are actually generated to understand. In the short term, we do not notice this because the effect is minor as I noted, but does help explain how people can go over 400 pulls without a rainbow when some people get them almost every other pull. As a hint, if this is true, pulling directly after you see someone get a rainbow, would probably not be the best idea, although we are talking an effect that is really only a .05-0.1% deviation over the course of 1000's of pulls.

I'm 100% certain they're pseudo-randoms. Not only that, but it also seems the randomizer is occasionally "slow" with updating its seed (it's a function of the internal clock of the hardware). Ever noticed how often your girls make a beeline on maps with random nodes, especially when they all happen to cross the same nodes very shortly (on the same move) after another? There's your answer.

Originally Posted by Drip

I'm 100% certain they're pseudo-randoms. Not only that, but it also seems the randomizer is occasionally "slow" with updating its seed (it's a function of the internal clock of the hardware). Ever noticed how often your girls make a beeline on maps with random nodes, especially when they all happen to cross the same nodes very shortly (on the same move) after another? There's your answer.

Or when you draw really well in the gatcha and then really well again if you draw fast enough.... that was why people were drawing normal gatcha to get 4* or 2-3 3* then doing premium gatcha... not sure if it ever worked but I know some people were swearing by it.