Originally Posted by Corintis

(runs through ?-8 once more to see if anything was overlooked)

OOOOOOH, so that's what's screwing people over; that last, Northernmost random-panel; I was wondering why it looked out of place and didn't realize you actually get sent Southeast, past the boss you needed to kill. So that's actually just one-less random panel than 10-5 than I thought it to be, still making it pretty dam annoying, with maybe a rough estimate of 17% chance to 3-Medal the stage.

->Open Spoiler<-

I don't know how I magically managed to pull off the 3-Medal route again when I just checked it out now . Can I get that RNG applied to my Gachas plz?

It's 12.5% per unit sent that way to be sent the correct way past the 3 gates 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8 = 12.5, but you can garuantee 2 units get sent that way since you need at least one unit for the other route and considering, but considering the even numbers get sent right instead of left you only need to start 3 units at the guaranteed gate to send the 2 units upwards for the increased chance to fight the top boss.


For those interested in powers needed to win my team power was
1) 61k (1 5* and 2 4*)
2) 23k
3) 20k
4) 20k
H) 40k
All teams were about 400 speed. (450 for main and under 420 for the other 3, Helper was around 400 too)

Originally Posted by Flan

It's 12.5% per unit sent that way to be sent the correct way past the 3 gates 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8 = 12.5, but you can garuantee 2 units get sent that way since you need at least one unit for the other route and considering

Mmm hmm. That second unit was the reason why I said it was about 17%, though if I'm doing my math properly, I think it's actually 18.75% when you overlap the chances of 2 units?

It's been like nearly ten years since my algebra class, so I'm forgetting my order of operations (it's also why I'm fuzzy with 10-5's chances; it should be 6.25% or lower, but with the overlaps, I just said screw it, it's 10%, give or take )

Well, done with the event. Last map was rather bothersome but at some point my first team managed to go the correct path.

I can't fight that boss at the top.
Always get redirected by the arrows away from the boss.
Really annoying

Still trying ?-8

->Open Spoiler<-

fuck that third arrow thing, it was placed by satan himself

Originally Posted by Blaxer

Still trying ?-8

->Open Spoiler<-

fuck that third arrow thing, it was placed by satan himself

(Unnecessarily and ignorantly ran the stage twice in a row and gets the 3-Medal Route both times)
It's totally not because my Helper Squad has the devil's speed of 666

Originally Posted by Corintis

Mmm hmm. That second unit was the reason why I said it was about 17%, though if I'm doing my math properly, I think it's actually 18.75% when you overlap the chances of 2 units?

It's been like nearly ten years since my algebra class, so I'm forgetting my order of operations (it's also why I'm fuzzy with 10-5's chances; it should be 6.25% or lower, but with the overlaps, I just said screw it, it's 10%, give or take )

There are 64 possibilities with 2 units and either unit hitting the 8th path is a winner (8 being the number I assigned to success) so:
1;8 2;8 3;8 4;8 5;8 6;8 7;8 8;8 8;1 8;2 8;3 8;4 8;5 8;6 8;7 that's 15 wins for 15/64 = 23.4% (roughly) which is basically the 12.5% chance times the max number of units you can send I don't know where you're getting that you only get the 12.5% plus an additional half chance for another unit.

1,1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1 7,1 8,1
1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2 7,2 8,2
1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3 7,3 8,3
1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4 7,4 8,4
1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5 7,5 8,5
1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6 7,6 8,6
1,7 2,7 3,7 4,7 5,7 6,7 7,7 8,7
1,8 2,8 3,8 4,8 5,8 6,8 7,8 8,8

Originally Posted by Corintis

(Unnecessarily and ignorantly ran the stage twice in a row and gets the 3-Medal Route both times)
It's totally not because my Helper Squad has the devil's speed of 666

Depending on the source the number of the beast is 616 or 666

well, you assume that each way after a node is equiprobable, fact that i personally never read anywhere.

haven't looked at the map... but top right boss hasn't been my problem, it was bottom left (still at 2 medals, from underdeveloped squad) (Now I suppose my groups will stop hitting the easy top right boss..)
CLosest I got was second team almost wiping the boss(if last survivor had procced instead of normal hit, it would have gotten it), and then slow helper squad diverting north, and only killing last boss

Squads- about 100k, 24k, 28k, 26k, 22k.... running with helpers 32k to 54k.

- - - Updated - - -

Originally Posted by ickss

well, you assume that each way after a node is equiprobable, fact that i personally never read anywhere.

this makes sense to me- I remember one 4 way map that I failed 6 times in a row. at 50% odds, should have beat it 3/8 times (50% chanee for two on one branch to each go different, 25% chance for all three on other branch to choose same path). But I couldn't figure out which branch should get the 3 for better chances, so I assumed rotten luck

Originally Posted by ickss

well, you assume that each way after a node is equiprobable, fact that i personally never read anywhere.

When I looked the event up on the jp wiki they ran probabilities with equal odds for each route so that's what I used.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

this makes sense to me- I remember one 4 way map that I failed 6 times in a row. at 50% odds, should have beat it 3/8 times (50% chanee for two on one branch to each go different, 25% chance for all three on other branch to choose same path). But I couldn't figure out which branch should get the 3 for better chances, so I assumed rotten luck

Because you totally can't get 100 heads in a row flipping a coin right? Just because series of events is unlikely it doesn't change the odds of it happening.

Originally Posted by Corintis

Do this for campaigns 10 and up nao.

I think I'll pass. There's no time limit on the campaign maps so there's no incentive to show the most probable way of doing the map since you can just run the map ad infinitum until you get a win. It usually comes down to making sure you have the minimum number of units on the node to cover the minimum number of paths necessary to get 3 medals then if you have any left over you just add them to the node that has the lowest chance for success.