Originally Posted by Flan

There are 64 possibilities with 2 units and either unit hitting the 8th path is a winner (8 being the number I assigned to success) so:
1;8 2;8 3;8 4;8 5;8 6;8 7;8 8;8 8;1 8;2 8;3 8;4 8;5 8;6 8;7 that's 15 wins for 15/64 = 23.4% (roughly) which is basically the 12.5% chance times the max number of units you can send I don't know where you're getting that you only get the 12.5% plus an additional half chance for another unit.

1,1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1 7,1 8,1
1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2 7,2 8,2
1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3 7,3 8,3
1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4 7,4 8,4
1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5 7,5 8,5
1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6 7,6 8,6
1,7 2,7 3,7 4,7 5,7 6,7 7,7 8,7
1,8 2,8 3,8 4,8 5,8 6,8 7,8 8,8


Depending on the source the number of the beast is 616 or 666

Do this for campaigns 10 and up nao.

But there's not too much to calculate; 2 squads get sent North and have to pass through 3, 50% chance panels. One squad alone has a 12.5% chance to pass through all three successfully and the guaranteed second squad passing through bumps it up to what should be 18.75%, since it has its own 3, 50% chance equations that must be performed first before adding the total.