AFAIK, Nutaku on Discord said that no, we are NOT getting new 5* Orchid if she stays on 2nd / 3rd place, just same old DMM Orchid Bride.
Curiously enough they decidedly didn't comment on if we still going to get her as 6*, or if they are going to downgrade her to 5*

So all in all, if Orchid (or Cactace) wins, we lose one new character REGARDLESS of her place.