Random Step-Up #11 (4/6 - 4/13)

[Eab1990]

Despite the Herbaceous Peony, I think it's a random single roll for steps 3 and 4.

But who cares about that, steps 1 and 2 are a bargain.

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1. Ticket #1 (7/01 - 7/08): Anemone / Cactace / Cattleya / Dendrobium
2. Step-Up #1 (8/05 - 8/12): Random (up to and including Daisy)
3. Ticket #2 (8/12 - 8/19): Fritillaria / Sakura / Mei Plumblossom
4. Step-Up #2 (9/02 - 9/09): Kerria
5. Ticket #3 (9/08 - 9/17): Alpinia / Anemone / Flowering Peach (player-voted)
6. Step-Up #3 (9/15 - 9/22): (Bridal) Cactace, $110 total
7. Ticket #4 (9/29 - 10/06): Cherry / Daisy / Dianthus
8. Step-Up #4 (10/06 - 10/13): Dogwood + ten $5 bonus steps for possible rainbow skill/dressbloom
9. Step-Up #5 (10/13 - 10/20): Black Baccara
10. Ticket #5 (10/20 - 10/27): Dendrobium / Ionocidium / Fritillaria
11. 5* Step-Up #1 (10/27 - 11/3): Four steps, $66 total, 1-2 random golds + a choice of any gold (prior to Lantana / Apple of Sodom)
12. Bridal Oncidium FG gacha (11/3 - 11/10): 10+1 FG roll guaranteed gold special, 20% chance vs. 80% random gold
13. Sakura early Black Friday (11/10 - 11/17): Sakura only, $30 single-roll
14. 5* Ticket #1 (11/17 - 11/24): Single roll, $30 each (up to three times), pick any gold (prior to Epidendrum / Snapdragon)
15. Black Friday ticket special (11/25 - 11/28): $10 11-roll, pick any rainbow except Lycoris / Bridal Oncidium
16. Step-Up #6 (12/2 - 12/9): Lycoris + $30 rainbow skill/dressbloom
17. Step-Up #7 (12/15 - 12/22): Christmas Rose + three steps, 1x secret gift each, NO guaranteed golds
18. Apple/Ivy early Christmas special (12/22 - 12/29): Apple/Ivy only, $30 each
19. New Year's Step-Up (12/30/16 - 1/6/17): Three 11-roll steps, step 1 ($100): regular rates, step 2 ($50): 5* and 6* only (95%/5%), step 3 ($30): 5* and 6* only (90%/10%)
20. Ardisia New Year (1/5 - 1/12): Ardisia only, 25% off ($45), free rainbow skill+dressbloom
21. Nutaku 2nd anniversary (1/13 - 1/16): $30 11-roll, pick one of the five launch rainbows (Black Baccara, Alpinia, Cactace, Mei Plumblossom, Sakura)
22. Step-Up #8 (1/19 - 1/26): Victoria only, step 1 ($45) = single roll (standard rates) + rainbow skill/dressbloom, step 2 ($15) = Victoria
23. Developer's Ticket, part 1 (1/26 - 2/2): $30 11-roll, choose from Evening Primrose, Setaria, Rose, or Violet
24. Developer's Ticket, part 2 (2/2 - 2/9): $50 11-roll, choose from Kerria, Dianthus, Alpinia, or Cattleya
25. Step-Up #9 (2/9 - 2/16): $75 six steps, 1-2 random 5* + gold skillbloom and 1 6* + rainbow skill/dressbloom at the end
26. Valentine's Gacha (2/14 - 2/16): $30 single roll, choose any rainbow (up to and including Helenium)
27. Maple FG Gacha (2/16 - 2/23): 10+1 FG roll guaranteed gold special, 20% chance vs. 80% random gold
28. Random Step-Up #10 (2/23 - 3/2): Five steps, $48, 1 gold + skillbloom, 1 gold + skill/dressbloom, 1 rainbow + dressbloom
29. Spring Break Cleaning Gacha (3/2 - 3/9): Three 11-roll steps, $70/$50/$30, first step contains 4*-6* (82%/16.5%/1.5%), step 2 contains 5*-6* (95%/5%), step 3 contains 5*-6* (90%/10%)
30. Late Christmas Step-Up Gacha (3/9 - 3/16): Four steps, step 1: $5 11-roll (standard rates), step 2 + 3: $25 Apple or Ivy (no dupes), step 4: $40 Mistletoe
31. "One Time Only" Step-Up Gacha (3/16 - 3/23): Five steps, steps 1-3: $9 total, single roll (standard rates), step 4 + 5: $1/$3 for random 5*
32. Ticket #6 (3/30 - 4/6): $60, 11-roll + 6* exchange ticket (all rainbows up to Mistletoe)
33. Random Step-Up #11 (4/6 - 4/13): Step 1+2 (11-roll, standard rates, $8 total), step 3 ($20, random 5*), step 4 ($30, random 6*), step 5 ($15, 50% gold skillbloom or dressbloom), step 6 ($25, 50% rainbow skillbloom or dressbloom)

[twilightdream]

So the last 2 step is nothing more then skill bloom and dress bloom with no guarantee what you will get...
Is this risky?

[Drip]

So the last 2 step is nothing more then skill bloom and dress bloom with no guarantee what you will get...
Is this risky?

Yes, not to mention that step 5 is a GOLD bloom. If it were a Rainbow bloom, it would be an okay price, but for gold? I don't think it is. If step 5 and 6 were guaranteed dress blooms it would be a better deal, though I do think 1,500 would be a better value for a rainbow dress bloom.
Step 3 also isn't that great a deal, it's basically the paywall to get to step 4 if you're okay with about any rainbow knight.

[smr]

any random rainbow knight except Dogwood is good.

[Maladaptive]

Pffft, 4 silver first draw, 6 silver over two draws, no golds

[Unregistered]

Yet another rich man's gacha. Meh......

Next!

[Drip]

any random rainbow knight except Dogwood is good.

I bet that deep in your heart you're actually a big Dogwood fan, hoping your pretence of disliking her will sometime result in 11 Dogwoods on a premium pull.

[Eab1990]

I don't know why you guys focus on the latter steps when you should only be looking at the first two.

[Eab1990]

And how many FKG players will do exactly that? Right...

A lot?

I feel like you're either overestimating the number of whales, or underestimating the number of sensible spenders.

This is hardly the first gacha where going part-way was the better deal as opposed to going all the way.

[Eab1990]

But they will get lured to step 3 & 4 if their 10+1 pulls are shitty. And those guarantee that you'll get atleast 1 5 star and 1 6 star...

Except no?

That's heavy gambler's fallacy speaking.

As far as getting good value out of your spending, then objectively speaking, steps 1 and 2 are a bargain simply because a normal 11-pull would run you ~$50 vs. $3/$5.

Anyone who wanted to roll would obviously jump on that. If they get burned by it, they obviously don't lose as much money, so they'll shrug and call it a day.

If they were shooting for better results, they would've jumped on the previous deal, or wait for one where they could pick their own gold.

Even previous step-up gachas had $10 steps for a guaranteed gold, not $20. It makes more sense to wait for those.

Again, I'm thinking you're overestimating how impulsive some people are, or generalizing the whale population as "anyone who spends, period".

I mean, fuck, if I got bad NG rolls, I'd sooner use my FGs than spend more cash.