Originally Posted by Drip

Ah, but avarages do exist, even in RNG. It just doesn't simply work additively, and often you need to make odd calculations to get the results you want. When you plot out all the possible resultsand the chance for them to happen, you get the well known Bell Curve (because it's shaped like a bell). Still, it remains RNG, and people (gamblers specifically) like to take their chances at getting something from the far right side of the curve, even though they have the same chance at ending up on the far left side, and that the peak of the bell curve is just the most common result, but that no guarantee is ever given that you'll actually manage even that result.

There's several problems with this logic:

(1) You're assuming that you know the outcome, and so can determine when (time)
(2) You're also assuming you know the outcomes of everyone else
(3) You're also assuming that you know when the end is for the entire history of this particular event (e.g., the life span of Nutaku's FKG)

This is why calculating odds is a useless endeavor. While Nutaku posts the supposed rates for draws, they have an exit clause in their EULA which suggests bugs, improper coding, errors in server operations, etc., may change those draw rates without prior notice. In a perfect world, sure, I'm guessing the statistical modeling could be helpful, but again, it is still largely worthless. As Dr. Tyson would say, random is random, and trying to predict it is a fool's errand.