I ultimately decided to pass on the previous deal but I might throw $20 at this one. No matter what happens I'll end up with at least one new Knight ... but then again there's a roughly one in eight chance* I'd end up with two Nymphaeas for my troubles.

* Provided, as always, that the listed odds are accurate and not fudged towards 5* Knights even more than a 70/30 split would normally provide (49/42/9 for 2/1/0 golds).