Thread: [Event 15] Advent Battle vs Yatagarasu

Originally Posted by noxybell

A few problems here:
1) Like others have said, you didn't factor in the SR+ guarantee from 10-chain pulls.

Shit, that's a thing? Is there any source for that? Since it certainly doesn't tell you ingame. How does it work, the 10th slot is guaranteed to be SR+ despite previous rolls being whatever they are? I think that's how the SSR KH guarantee one works for 50 bucks.

Originally Posted by noxybell

2) You also didn't factor in tickets from various places. You get 1 premium tickets from login bonus per 12 day chunks.

This was factored in, as 300 Gems. Does anyone waste resources on a 80% R quality ticket though...?

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

Your math on jewels is wrong, and I'm not sure why you tried to calculate SR kamihime rates from scratch when I have a publicly-available Gatcha calculator I spent days working that takes into account factors you're ignoring.

Because, let me completely honest, the UI of your spreadsheet is complete and total ass.

Now, I've used some functions of it, and I am grateful. But seriously, at a glance, you can't tell what in the flying F half of the tabs are for. At least the cells which you should be changing are highlighted. Like the "assault and eidolon effects comparison" tab. So, you basically have four different calculators on the same page. Alright, not exactly ideal but since they're kinda related, fair enough. But then look at weapon comparison. Sure, the way you've done it is... extensive, but... wouldn't people usually just want to enter five cells? Weapon 1 damage, weapon 1 assault level (can be split into two cells considering the base bonus of SR and SSR), weapon 2 damage, weapon 2 assault level and how much the rest of the attack is. Much simpler, much faster, much easier for a random person to understand just what the spreadsheet does at a glance.

Again, your current method is extensive since it allows for more than mono-elemental comparison and etc., but.

Anyway, I hadn't looked at Gacha data tab before. That's interesting - so there's HUGE weights in both Eidolons and Kamihime weapons. Supposedly. Doesn't match my Gacha pulls in the slightest (of SSRs, 2 non-KH weapons, 0 Eidolons, 1 KH weapon), but hey, small sample size. Not going to check source on that data, but I hope that the source is huge. And not from rerolling accounts, since god knows if there's weights in place for the first 20 pulls.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

First of all, the expected jewels (15k) you estimated for a player who's been active since day 1 doesn't match actual data. We have an account of a player who claimed he spent 60k jewels in one go, and I myself have accrued somewhere in the neighborhood of 35k (that doesn't include the dozens of harem scenes I haven't watched yet).

Feel free to explain to me the source of these Jewels then. I did mention a few other sources not calculated in, such as the additional login bonus campaigns. Also, raids provide a good chunk - I think each ticket is like 1 Jewel on average? Or was it 0.1 Jewels... I did some rudimentary checking on the droprates from those, but it's buried so deep in logs I can't be bothered to check.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

Finally, your target estimate of the number of SR kamihime a day 1 player would have doesn't match actual outcomes. I've rolled a total of 1x 10-roll (SSR guaranteed) more than a free player would be able to, and I have 17 SR kamihime. -- Obviously that's not anywhere close to your predictions, for the reasons outlined above. And no, the 'RNG' argument doesn't explain every data point that doesn't match your model, sorry.

Aaaactually, if it's just you, then a statistical outlier is very feasible. And I assume you mean 17 gacha SRs, you didn't count Nike and friends and Balor and friends?

Still, since you've spent so much time on your calculator, why don't you just tell me what is the statistical likelyhood of a player having SR Hime? Just throw a ballpark number with reasoning behind on how many Jewels a player would have and then how many SRs is the average person going to get.

Originally Posted by Slashley

Shit, that's a thing? Is there any source for that? Since it certainly doesn't tell you ingame. How does it work

Here

Scroll down to find the reward table. I think it is just a single-use ticket. You may have a chance to get a Raid event-exclusive SR, you may have a chance to get junk.

As for the main arguments, your calculation is off by 2 factors. First, the "additional jewels" sources are not negligible. Some of them can sum up to be around 2000 jewels for a total of 1 set of 12 days. Their typical progression goes like 50, 50, 50, 100, 100......,100, 200, 300, 400. The last 4 days alone is 1000 jewels. Second, your SR and SSR rate is based on your own observation. Granted Nutaku isn't the most honest of a company but they did write their Gacha odds of 3% SSR, 15% SR and 82% R in the Gacha page. Sanahtlig's calculator is based on that, along with bunch of statistical data drawn from actual pulls.

Finally, nobody touched on this yet, but to artificially get a leg up, there is always the starting Re-roll.

wow got my first plat chest ... and its a fcking bow

Originally Posted by AznSamsung

wow got my first plat chest ... and its a fcking bow

I wasted 70 half elixirs and al my natural regen. 0 Platinum chests.

Originally Posted by Slashley

wouldn't people usually just want to enter five cells? Weapon 1 damage, weapon 1 assault level (can be split into two cells considering the base bonus of SR and SSR), weapon 2 damage, weapon 2 assault level and how much the rest of the attack is. Much simpler, much faster, much easier for a random person to understand just what the spreadsheet does at a glance.

The calculator is set up to run simulations with weapons you don't have or don't have at the desired level yet. That's why the linear regression formula for stats based on weapon level is necessary. As for HP, I was planning to compare options to obtain the optimal balance of HP and assault skill (e.g., from eidolon effects and weapon skills). Just haven't gotten around to it because it turned out to be fairly complicated and there's other more useful things I can be working on.

Anyway, I hadn't looked at Gacha data tab before. That's interesting - so there's HUGE weights in both Eidolons and Kamihime weapons. Supposedly. Doesn't match my Gacha pulls in the slightest (of SSRs, 2 non-KH weapons, 0 Eidolons, 1 KH weapon), but hey, small sample size. Not going to check source on that data, but I hope that the source is huge. And not from rerolling accounts, since god knows if there's weights in place for the first 20 pulls.

The category weights for SSRs are largely based on data from two super-whales: over 200 SSRs in all. I take Nutaku's stated rates for rarity at face-value to avoid the statistical issue of high variance in rare events.

Feel free to explain to me the source of these Jewels then.

Does it matter? I have them. I've documented my rolls so I know how many jewels I've spent. Real data with zero variance beats estimates in the evidence hierarchy. In any case, Nutaku does jewel giveaway events regularly. You forgot to factor those in.

And I assume you mean 17 gacha SRs, you didn't count Nike and friends and Balor and friends?

Of course I did. Why wouldn't I? I entered this discussion saying that a player who's been actively playing as long as I have should have a large variety of SR kamihime. Event and story SRs count!

what is the statistical likelyhood of a player having SR Hime

Assuming a player has spent 36k jewels (more than me since I've saved mine), and rolled 40 premium tickets or so, they should have collected ~12 Gatcha SR kamihime (minus duplicates). Add the 4 story SR and 5 raid SR, and that's 21. That doesn't include the special tickets given out in the crossover event, which would likely add a couple more. But as a general rule of thumb, you should expect around 1 SR kamihime per 3k jewels.

Spread equally across the 6 elements (unlikely), that's 3-4 SR kamihime per element. But a savvy player will go with the element with the best kamihime, so they'll likely have a main team with all SR+ kamihime by this point, and likely at least 1 SSR. This is something even someone like HungryHunter could manage, so long as he logged in every day and did his dailies.

Originally Posted by noxybell

Here

Scroll down to find the reward table. I think it is just a single-use ticket. You may have a chance to get a Raid event-exclusive SR, you may have a chance to get junk.

I asked a source for the guaranteed SR from pulling 10 at once. Not sure why you linked a Raid SR ticket, but interesting to know that'll be a thing in the future.

Originally Posted by noxybell

-- First, the "additional jewels" sources are not negligible.--

Well, I don't have access to a list of them, so there was little I could do about it.

Originally Posted by noxybell

Second, your SR and SSR rate is based on your own observation.

The maths was presented in the post. They're based on what the game client reports them as, assuming that there's no weights. Apparently, there are some massive weight attached.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

The calculator is set up to run simulations with weapons you don't have or don't have at the desired level yet. That's why the linear regression formula for stats based on weapon level is necessary. As for HP, I was planning to compare options to obtain the optimal balance of HP and assault skill (e.g., from eidolon effects and weapon skills). Just haven't gotten around to it because it turned out to be fairly complicated and there's other more useful things I can be working on.

There are good sides to complicated. But when you don't properly separate the tools, have tons of different tabs which could be combined... and then you say in threads that ask about Assault weapons "i made a calc use that" ... well, that just makes me facepalm.

There are also times when simplicity is best, and less is more. I'm not saying that you should remove the full version, I'm saying you should rename and combine tabs, overhaul the UI, put simpler and faster to use tools up front. These tools work fine for you, and those who take the time to go over how it all works. If you actually want to make tools - rather than your own notes -
then that's not quite what you want to do.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

Of course I did. Why wouldn't I? I entered this discussion saying that a player who's been actively playing as long as I have should have a large variety of SR kamihime. Event and story SRs count!

I already said my piece on pity SRs, and story ones are no different. They're not at SR powerlevel at all, the best one being Nike for bringing having two tools. Of course, both are really sub-par compared to other similar skills, but hey. You get those tools for free.

So that leaves... 9 SRs? 10 if you count Gabriel as one. Plus your unspent stash.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

Assuming a player has spent 36k jewels (more than me since I've saved mine), and rolled 40 premium tickets or so, they should have collected ~12 Gatcha SR kamihime (minus duplicates).

So, my rough estimate was about half? That's still not particularly impressive considering this is six months, but fair enough.

Originally Posted by Slashley

I asked a source for the guaranteed SR from pulling 10 at once. Not sure why you linked a Raid SR ticket, but interesting to know that'll be a thing in the future.

My bad. I misread that to mean you looking for a source for the Raid SR ticket. Anyway the SR+ guarantee for 10-chain pulls is here: http://xn--hckqz0e9cygq471ahu9b.xn--...83%81%E3%83%A3

Maybe your Jewel gacha SR rate was low because you didn't do 10-chain pulls but instead pulled one by one?

Originally Posted by noxybell

My bad. I misread that to mean you looking for a source for the Raid SR ticket. Anyway the SR+ guarantee for 10-chain pulls is here:

Thank you.
I am fairly disgusted by how the Gems gacha doesn't operate in the same way, or that there isn't any mention of this anywhere ingame.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

You posted a load of nonsense based on ignorance or misunderstanding of multiple aspects of the game system.

Multiple? Aside from KH weapon weights - which I had wrong since the game client doesn't report them to you - what else was wrong? Oh, right, the Jewel 10-pull guaranteeing one SR improves the odds slightly too.

You did claim that the Jewel income I pointed out was wrong, but then refused to provide anything other than "because you're wrong." Alright. Fair enough. Maybe I was, but there was hardly any points in your favor there.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

We corrected you. I pointed out that I have a polished tool that does what you spent significant time trying to fumblingly do yourself. You complain that it isn't pretty enough.

This is this, and that is that. I thank you for pointing out the weights of the pulls, but complaining about the UI of the spreadsheets is a whole different issue.

Originally Posted by sanahtlig

If you want to continue wasting your time re-inventing the wheel, go ahead. Or you could spend a fraction of that time to figure out how my tools work and move on to do something useful.

Or, you could actually make your tools user-friendly.

It's not like I was expecting a high chance of that happening, but considering how defensive you got, I guess there's now a 0% chance of that.

But, one last time, since I doubt you've grasped the core of the issue even. Probably because of annoyance. Fair enough. Anyway. What do you think happened in
3639-weapon-effect-stats-eidolon-question.html this thread?
3638-questions-weapon-skill-math-vs-stats.html Or this thread?
(har, can't post direct links)
Assuming that these people in question even came back to the thread, do you think they got what they wanted?

Maybe. But chances are, they clicked on your signature link, then clicked on the spreadsheet link... and then just went "what?"
Assuming they even found the right tab, since your link opens up at weapon skill enhancement, they probably stared at it for a couple of seconds before shrugging and moving on.

Alright, since you're fixated on my Toolbox, I'll break it down:

This is an expansive project I've been working on for a long time, completely solo (until recently). I find a question I'm interested in, do the math to answer it, test and re-test to find and fix formula errors, label and organize the calculations to my satisfaction, and then publish it for others to use. I know of no one else making calculators that can model the various systems in this game, in any language. I do it primarily to further understanding of these game systems, since generalizations have limitations and simulations are required to model complex systems that vary in different ways depending on the input.

These tools are provided AS IS, as in they're configured for my use first, and everyone else's use second. I will never sacrifice usability for myself to increase usability for others. I will fix bugs in the formulas, clean up clutter, and provide basic documentation so motivated individuals can make use of these tools--hopefully to generate useful discussion and guides for others.

You've outlined criticisms with various aspects of the presentation. You claim there's too many tabs (redundant information). You claim there's too few tabs (unrelated tools clustered on the same sheets). You want it to be simpler and easier to find what you're looking for (with the most important info highlighted).

The Toolbox contains many tools to answer multiple distinct questions. Some tools are related. Some are connected. A few are interconnected, with the output of one feeding into another and back again (I try to avoid this as much as possible, but sometimes complexity balloons, as it did with the damage calculations). To my knowledge, there are no redundant or useless tabs. There are tabs with labels that may SEEM redundant, simply because I shorten them as much as possible to fit more tabs without scrolling. I do in fact organize the tabs with the most important ones (to me) placed first. I actually have no idea what tab users will land on when they click a url to my Toolbox, nor how to control this.

I could summarize information better. I could write user guides to help users find what they're looking for and understand the layout. But I haven't seen any demand for these things. I see one person who, after starting an argument and getting piled on, is looking for something, anything, to nitpick (which is what started the whole argument in the first place, that I joined only belatedly).

If I'm wrong, and you're genuinely interested in contributing, then pick a tool you're interested in, figure out how it works (by playing with it and asking me questions), and then suggest to me how I can make it better. The more specific, circumscribed, and easier to implement your suggestions are, the more likely I'll implement them. You can find me on Discord if you want to talk further.

ok, got my 2nd copy - might stop now and just focus on getting tickets

first time in an event that I actually can farm expert

just dat I don't get lazy and don't use auto



have to aim for that bottom chick that disables something that I can't heal LOL (the weird sad moaning face icon) - if she gets dat buff or Crow-chan in the 2nd battle - I'm pretty much screwed LOL